Would you believe it if I told you that Antonio Gibson, who played mostly wide receiver (WR) in college, tallied 16.2 carries and targets per game in the first 11 games of his pro football career at running back (RB)?
After blowing up in Week 12 for 20/115/3, along with five receptions on seven targets, he was hurt early in the next game and missed two weeks. He then came back and received a large share of the workload again, but he was hobbled a bit by the injury and indeed it has lingered into the offseason, somewhat unexpectedly.
What are his prospects for 2021, and how do they compare to the rest of the 2020 RB class and other similar ranked veteran RBs?
Let’s Watch Some 2020 Highlights First
Can you identify these 2020 rookie RB stat lines?
* Hint – I’m not including 1,000 yard rushers Jonathan Taylor and James Robinson
Numbers can be deceiving, and inherent bias can easily creep into our evaluations. We must look at our datasets (of any kind) with their context in mind. If we are to glean any useful information from these rookie RB seasons, to project for the future, we must look at their profile from a wider lens than simply raw stats. But we can’t ignore those either. Occasionally it can be useful to remove the names when looking at the numbers.
RBs that we would consider studs almost universally flashed in their rookie seasons. And here is the part that can bring you ‘ships this year (and most years). Ready?
Stud RBs almost always make a big leap to their second year and are undervalued by the fantasy community
In terms of their development, both physically and mentally, the game is said to slow down for them. Many times this happens as a rookie, and I think you can make that case that this happened for each of these five in the table above. And all of them are going too cheap in redraft right now, except perhaps Akers who is going in the late 1st round.
The other more mathematically defendable reason these RBs make a big year-two leap is that their opportunities increase. Rookies are almost universally eased in at least a little bit. They flashed, they were drafted relatively high, and they’re good. How good? Let’s look at Gibson’s rookie season a little deeper.
Let’s Talk About His Pre-Injury Split
I am going to talk about Gibson’s first 11 games because he got hurt early in his 12th game, missed the next two, and dealt with turf toe for his last couple of games. But by all accounts, he was fully healthy thru 11 games. I’m not ignoring what happened afterward but I’m going with games 1-11 here.
And to be clear for those that weren’t paying attention, this guy played mostly WR in college and successfully converted to a full-time RB in the NFL as a rookie during COVID with terrible quarterback (QB) play throughout. And he was drafted on day two, which means something these days.
My RB snap percentage below is perhaps flawed because I don’t know how to pull data for plays where Gibson/McKissic were on the field together, but it probably isn’t that much, and whatever it is it would increase Gibson’s number here. My usage % is (carries+targets)/total snaps.
He had 39 targets during this time. 11 TDs. There is room for more usage here in this rookie profile.
Gibson had One TD every nine touches in college. He had One TD every 14 as a rookie in this split. Is that good?
Peyton Barber‘s two biggest games for volume came in the two games that were also Gibson’s two largest volume games. Gibson had 20 carries in both those games, where Barber had 10 and 11, respectively. In both games, the WFT won handily: Weeks 7 and 12.
Week 1 – Gibson was eased in, only had 25% of team snaps, but was given a carry or targeted 11 times, 61% usage.
Week 2 – He got a ton of playing time and took over the job. 65% of team snaps, 15 touches, and a TD, lower usage at 35% but now he is playing in the NFL.
Week 9 – His worst game of the split with only nine touches, including only six carries. But there were only nine carries to be had that day for the team and they went from Kyle Allen to Alex Smith midgame and it just wasn’t good.
He got hurt early in Week 13, missed Weeks 14-15, got eased back in Week 16, and then Week 17 had a huge share again.
It would be ridiculous to not point out the very high likelihood Gibson takes at least a little bit more of a leap in terms of his development, but also of his share of the pie. Even though it was clearly at a respectable level already. I made some projections based on a range of increases in workload from the year one rookie baseline to what I think is possible in year two. The season totals listed below are still relative to a 16 game season for ease of comparison.
I talk all the time about the context of a dataset. All this table above really represents is a rough cut estimate of the range of outcomes for Gibson for 2021. It isn’t meant to be a defendable thesis to earn a degree in statistical analysis. It is based on my many assumptions. I think he can get closer to 15 TDs in reality because I think he is a special playmaker that the coaching staff believes in and is a centerpiece to an ascending NFL offense. On a game-to-game basis, a ceiling game where he gets something like 25-30 touches isn’t out of the question. A skill group that includes new quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, wide receivers Curtis Samuel and Dyami Brown to go along with Terry McLaurin, and tight end Logan Thomas, is going to make this a formidable offense with lots of upside. And I like what the defense can do for them game script-wise.
His floor? Well if you had asked me two weeks ago I would say it is as good as any of these second-season RBs and that of many other comparable veterans. But the lingering toe injury has me worried and I cannot help but pump the brakes a little. He represents a potential value at his current ADP in the late second/early third round of redrafts.
I will look at the other four RBs in future articles, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, J.K. Dobbins, D’Andre Swift, and Cam Akers. The preview, however, is that they are all undervalued right now with the possible exception of Akers. And when combined with all the other veteran options out there, I am seeing a 2021 FF landscape where the RB2s are possibly going to outscore RB2s from previous seasons by a lot. If true, then the presumed ADP value on Gibson in the table above is an illusion. He may not be a value at all, but he has top-5 upside well within his range of outcomes.
As always and per usual, taking Gibson is going to come down to your level of risk tolerance.
Thanks for reading! Feel free to reach out to me to chat about fantasy football on Twitter @Ship_Chaser and follow along with me on my journey as I chase six-figure paydays! Look for my new articles soon!
