THE DEAL
The Atlanta Falcons signed former Carolina Panthers running back Mike Davis to a two-year deal worth $5.5M with $3M guaranteed in the first year.
Many of us “Dynasty Die Hards” have a soft spot in our hearts for Davis, who before now, could never seem to breakthrough as a starter whether it was in San Francisco, Chicago, or most recently Carolina. That said, Davis did just finish off his most productive season to date as Christian McCaffrey’s backup and replacement for the majority of the season after CMC was placed on IR due to a severely sprained ankle.
Davis was nothing short of exceptional in 2020 completing the year with 642 yards on 165 rushing attempts along with securing 59 of 70 targets for 373 yards and eight total touchdowns. He showed great contact balance and elusiveness all year and proved his worth and upside as a borderline elite pass-catcher. The 28-year-old career backup finished last season as the fantasy RB11 in PPR formats with the third-highest catch rate among running backs (84%) and the second-most games with five or more receptions among running backs (7).
FUTURE IN ATLANTA & BEYOND
This all sounds great, doesn’t it? Especially on the back of the news that Davis is signing a multi-year deal with the Atlanta Falcons as their prospective starter. Let’s pump the breaks right there though.
While Mike Davis appears to be the Falcons starter in late March that is largely due to the competition, or lack thereof competition in Atlanta’s backfield, it’s very possible and likely that will change before the 2021 kickoff. Whether they add another veteran or a rookie in the NFL Draft, Ito Smith, Brian Hill, and Qadree Ollison don’t inspire much confidence making Mike Davis that much more appealing to many dynasty managers given the current situation. But that’s deceiving and Mike Davis “the starter” is a bit of an illusion in the fantasy landscape.
Let’s add some more context.
There are a few running backs in the upcoming NFL Draft that would fit the Falcons scheme quite well. If they’re willing to spend high draft capital, which is admittedly unlikely, Travis Etienne would seem more than qualified for the dual-threat role the Falcons typically pursue. If the Falcons rather spend their early picks elsewhere they may look to add a player like Chuba Hubbard or Michael Carter who have similar skill sets. Any of these additions would be a major hit to Davis’s dynasty value.
Davis is by all accounts a very talented football player, but he leaves a lot to be desired on the fantasy football front, and even more from a dynasty perspective. His most productive year was arguably created completely due to the absence of Christian McCaffrey, offensive playstyle, and lack of depth. Carolina is top five in teams with the highest target rates to the RB1 position over the last three seasons and was missing the best pass-catching running back in the game all of 2021. There shouldn’t be much surprise the only other running back on the team worth his salt received the entire workload in lieu of McCaffrey. The Panthers offensive is specifically geared to run the ball and utilize the running back in the passing game and Mike Davis’s skillset translated perfectly for that but I’m not so sure that’s the kind of offense he’s heading for in Atlanta.
Firstly, the Falcons posted the worst offensive line grades in 2021 of the Matt Ryan era according to PFF and could barely run through ticker tape last year even with Todd Gurley leading the way. It’s fair to say Mike Davis may not find as many holes behind this offensive line as he found in Carolina. Atlanta’s tendency to throw the ball often and lack of mobility from the quarterback position is also going to put a strain on his fantasy effectiveness as well. Davis received an unsustainable 64.2% (14th) opportunity share (total running back carries and targets) and a 22.9% (17th) dominator rating (% of total team yards and touchdowns) last season. While these numbers are impressive they shouldn’t be too encouraging given the context.
Davis was given an untenable role he’s extremely unlikely to reproduce or even be asked to recreate elsewhere. I think you’re gravely mistaken if you’re expecting a similar opportunity share, volume, or usage from Mike Davis in Atlanta.
DYNASTY VALUE
So, we’ve laid out the new contract and the context around how Mike Davis was able to finish as the RB11 in 2021, and repeating that in these new circumstances would be improbable, but what does this all mean for his dynasty value? Are we buying or selling?
Mike Davis signing in Atlanta is excellent for his dynasty value. Davis is a 28-year-old career backup running back, an expiring asset with very little future upside that just received an undeserving boost in dynasty value. You probably couldn’t sell Davis for much other than a rookie fourth-round pick a week or two ago but now he’s the “starting running back for Atlanta” and I’m advising you should sell that vision to anyone buying because it’s an illusion with an expiration date. While Davis is guaranteed $3M this year and should be expected to play a large role I’d be looking to move him for a mid-second-round rookie pick as my ceiling value but not less than a third. Cash in while you still can.
I’m not at all saying Mike Davis isn’t good at football but the Falcons have a bundle of picks in the upcoming NFL Draft and will in all likelihood add talent to that backfield and his dynasty value and on-field production will again take a hit slowly inching its way back towards zero.
If you’re still on the fence ask yourself a few questions. Could Mike Davis help me win a fantasy championship in 2021? Maybe, but probably not. Is this year your last chance to get anything for a 28-year-old career backup running back in dynasty? I think so.
Thank you for reading. If you have any thoughts or would like to discuss them, you can find me on Twitter @WillieBeamanDFF.
