After the NFL draft, there are quite a few backfields without a clear picture of who the workload is going to fall on. While it’s possible some backfields may continue as committees, more than likely, a few of them will have one guy receive a large volume of the work. That’s what I’m aiming to dive into in this series: who will emerge from the muddy backfields and cement their place as a fantasy value this season?
Luckily, JJ Zachariason has already put in the research to show us what to look for. Even though his research is primarily for redraft, we can apply it to dynasty as well. Breakout running backs typically aren’t handcuffs. They come from ambiguous backfields and are oftentimes drafted as the 2nd back from their team. Pass catchers have an easier route to breakout, as there is typically a three rush to one reception workload ratio. Most importantly, age doesn’t matter. Players in their fifth year are just as likely as rookies to break out in these situations.
Current Depth Chart
The Broncos signed Melvin Gordon to a two-year $16M contract last offseason. This offseason they originally placed a restricted free agent tender on Phillip Lindsay, before allowing him to walk in free agency. To replace Lindsay, they brought in Mike Boone on a two-year deal worth $3,850,000 and drafted Javonte Williams with the 35th pick in the draft. Oh yeah, Royce Freeman is still around somewhere too. This is how I expect the backfield depth chart to shake out:
- Melvin Gordon
- Javonte Williams
- Mike Boone
- Royce Freeman
This is different than other backfields I’ve covered thus far because I expect there to be much more of a “passing of the torch” from Gordon to Williams by season’s end.
Lead Back or Committee?
In Vic Fangio’s tenure as head coach, the Broncos have run the ball on 42.87% and 42.91% of their plays. Fangio is a defensive-minded coach that wants to shorten games by running the ball and win with low scores. Unfortunately, Denver has had a bit of the injury bug on the defensive side, and they have struggled with turnovers. If things go according to plan, Teddy Bridgewater* will be the quarterback and will function as a game manager for a vanilla offense. If Teddy Bridgewater is named quarterback, whoever is at the running back position will benefit as he checks down far more than Drew Lock does. He also doesn’t turn the ball over near as much.
Last season, Gordon failed to go over 60% of snaps just six times (55, 56, 52, 52, 46, and 53). Lindsay only went over 48% of snaps once, in Week Six when Gordon was inactive against the Patriots. I expect the backfield to be Gordon’s at the beginning of the season as Williams adapts to the NFL. Basically, it will be a 60/40 split and the guy getting the 60% will flip mid-season.
In recent years, the big switch to a rookie running back usually comes after the bye week. As weekly schedules haven’t yet been released, I can’t say for certain what week that will come, but I expect much of the same to happen in Denver this year.
Who Do I Roster?
It’s a two-horse race in Denver. I have no problem rostering either guy. You just need to understand what you’re getting with each.
If you’re rostering Gordon, know that his time is limited. Luckily, he’s shown an ability to produce in the past in a timeshare. Last season he was RB13 and had nine top-24 performances, finishing in the top-12 four times. If the Broncos appear to be a contender, there’s a chance he may hang on to his role throughout the season. I’ve been drafting him late in startups where I can, and I’m willing to hold on to him at least through the first half of the season. I don’t know that I’d be actively trading for him, as it looks like the writing may be on the wall at this point, and with no contract beyond 2021, his future is uncertain.
If you can get Javonte Williams in the late 1st round of rookie drafts, I think he’s a value. He’ll likely take over the majority of work in the backfield after the bye week, so you’ll need to weather the panic early on. Williams is no stranger to sharing the backfield, so he could be a flex play early in his career. He can be a three-down back and is a top-3 back in this draft class. If I can trade for him by mid-season, it may even be your last chance at a “buy-low” window.
*At the time of writing, Aaron Rodgers is having his name thrown out there as the future QB of the Denver Broncos. If this trade happens, things would change greatly for this offense.
Thanks for reading! If you have any fantasy questions, reach out to me on Twitter @fantasyonefive, and be sure to check out the rest of my work on DFF!
