After the NFL draft, there are quite a few backfields without a clear picture of who the workload is going to fall on. While it’s possible some backfields may continue as committees, more than likely, a few of them will have one guy receive a large volume of the work. That’s what I’m aiming to dive into in this series: who will emerge from the muddy backfields and cement their place as a fantasy value this season?
Luckily, JJ Zachariason has already put in the research to show us what to look for. Even though his research is primarily for redraft, we can apply it to dynasty as well. Breakout running backs typically aren’t handcuffs. They come from ambiguous backfields and are oftentimes drafted as the 2nd back from their team. Pass catchers have an easier route to breakout, as there is typically a three rush to one reception workload ratio. Most importantly, age doesn’t matter. Players in their fifth year are just as likely as rookies to break out in these situations.
Current Depth Chart
While the Texans may look like a terrible franchise that could be without Deshaun Watson this season, there’s still value to be found in their backfield. The Texans signed Mark Ingram and Phillip Lindsay to one-year contracts adding to David Johnson and a number of backs that have remained irrelevant. The average age of the Texans backfield by the start of next season is 26.8, which is basically geriatric for the NFL. Expect the depth chart to look something like this:
- David Johnson
- Phillip Lindsay
- Mark Ingram
Lead Back or Committee?
The Texans finally cut loose the dead weight that was Bill O’Brien and promptly hired David Culley. This hire won’t have a ton of impact on the offense though because Tim Kelly, the offensive coordinator since 2019, remained in Houston. Last season David Johnson and recent departure Duke Johnson were the only backs to receive significant work.
David Johnson missed four games and left early from another, but he still averaged 74% of the snaps when healthy. In the 12 weeks he was healthy, he put up nine top-24 performances, including five top-12 finishes.
With Watson gone, which we should probably assume (for at least part of the season) at this point, the TD upside could take a real hit. Watson was actually second on the team in rushing attempts, something that could become extremely interesting should he depart and Davis Mills somehow ends up as the starter. If Watson or Tyrod Taylor aren’t leading this offense, there’s going to be a lot of extra rushing opportunity available. You’d be relying on ugly games where points were mostly coming in garbage time, but points are points.
Who Do I Roster?
This backfield is actually pretty straightforward in my opinion. It’s David Johnson’s job to lose. I’m not actively trading for DJ at this point because I think there are more sure things from backs that are seen as over-the-hill (see. Melvin Gordon and James Conner). However, I’m guessing he could be had for as low as a late 2nd rookie pick, possibly even less if you find a manager that is desperate to get him off his roster before he retires.
Phillip Lindsay is an interesting piece. If Johnson gets banged up, which has happened each of the last few years, things will fall on Phillip Lindsay’s shoulders. I don’t like counting out Lindsay, but his lack of receiving chops could hurt him a lot in an offense that will probably be playing catch up a lot this season. If you trust him to make the most with this opportunity, he could easily take over as the RB1 in Houston. I personally don’t think that will happen, but if I did, I’d be looking to grab him as soon as Sermon and Carter came off the board in rookie drafts.
Mark Ingram is there for the locker room. He’s a veteran presence that is familiar with Culley. Just look at how he was a team leader for the Ravens in his brief stint. Ingram is basically Udonis Haslem at this point. He’s only got a $500,000 dead cap hit, so not making the final roster is a concern.
Thanks for reading! If you have any fantasy questions, reach out to me on Twitter @fantasyonefive, and be sure to check out the rest of my work on DFF!
