Is there really anything such as a so-called “sleeper” these days? Probably not your traditional: nobody knows about, completely under the radar, never heard of before sleeper anyway, right? The closest example of a solid sleeper in recent memory for me is last year’s James Robinson, who produced an RB1 season out of thin air as a UDFA for the first time in NFL history, something unlikely to occur again.
The days of the traditional sleeper are quickly fading with a community full of hard-working analysts and tape grinders who nail down even the least known players before most of the NFL scouts can get their eyes on them. Ok, that might be a bit of an exaggeration (It’s not!) but the dynasty market is saturated with content. Therefore, most players will be given some sort of spotlight and as a result, the entire population of dynasty managers is more knowledgeable as a whole making “sleepers” much more difficult to discover and take advantage of.
That said, I figured I’d shoot my shot in attempting to provide our readers with a few dynasty “sleepers” who have either slipped in ADP, gone undrafted and undervalued, or have simply been forgotten about and left in the “lost and found” bin for late-round scavengers to snag in hopes of league-winning upside.
Let’s begin!
JAMES CONNER
There aren’t many NFL veterans that could qualify as a dynasty “sleeper” but James Conner is one if there ever was. Conner signed to the Arizona Cardinals this offseason in an effort to replace the work vacated by Kenyan Drake, who signed with the Las Vegas Raiders. I know large numbers of the dynasty community have Chase Edmonds’ name tattooed across their chests but if we’re being honest Conner profiles (identifies) more as an every-down running back. The only real knock on him is his injury history and inability to stay on the field. There’s no doubt Edmonds will remain involved, especially in the passing game, but we witnessed the Cardinals avoid using him as a lead back even when Drake was injured last year. Conner can easily overtake him as the workhorse in this offense.
Conner was a dual-threat running back when he peaked in Pittsburgh and has the proven skill set to excel in the Kingsbury pass-heavy “Air Raid” offense. He caught 55 of 71 targets in 2018 and holds an 81% catch rate over his career. He’s every bit the pass-catcher Chase Edmonds is, if not better. He’s also a running back who can create yards on his own, statistically well above league average in yards after contact per attempt (2.1) for his career. He’ll surely receive the majority of the goal line touches as well. I expect a healthy Conner to take the clear lead role before the season even gets going.
James Conner’s age and ADP are what make him such an outstanding value in the 2021 dynasty landscape, where there’s stark scarcity for high-end running backs. While Conner has considerable health concerns he’s still just 26 years old. Even though age 27 historically marks the downtrend in career output for the position, he has far less tread on his tires than the average age 26 NFL running back due to time missed for numerous medical reasons.
All of this culminated in his absurdly low overall dynasty start-up ADP of 126 in 2021. According to DLF ADP, Conner is being drafted as the RB40, behind Nyheim Hines, Zack Moss, and Michael Carter of all players; these are three running backs with much less upside in clear-cut committees. I’d happily walk away with Conner in double-digit rounds of dynasty drafts and I place him at the top of my trade targets list for contending teams in 2021. I was just able to acquire Conner for Tarik Cohen, 4.09, and a 2022 4th. If that doesn’t highlight how much people are sleeping on him, I’m not sure what will.
JAVIAN HAWKINS
Hawkins was a pre-NFL draft darling but the community quickly soured on him when he went unselected in the 2021 NFL Draft. He was signed by the Atlanta Falcons as a UDFA and likely went undrafted in large part due to his lack of size to handle work as an NFL running back. On his Pro Day, Hawkins measured in at 5’9” 183 lbs, which equates to a BMI of 27. Historically, the most successful running backs have BMIs above 30 and while he enters the league on the slender side I don’t think the NFL or the fantasy community views him as a workhorse running back.
Hawkins profiles as a complementary third-down running back who surprisingly got very little passing work in college. He finished with just 21 total receptions in his three-year college career, something I’d expect to change under Anthony Lynn’s tutelage. He officially broke out at Louisville in 2019 with 264 carries for 1,525 yards and nine touchdowns setting a pace for the same or better before opting out of the 2021 season due to Covid-19. Clearly, his lack of size didn’t prevent him from producing at the college level although the NFL defensive size and speed will be a much more difficult challenge.
You may be wondering, “why am I wasting a roster spot on this guy?”. Truthfully, he would’ve fallen completely off my radar if it weren’t for the landing spot. Atlanta offers something very few other teams can, opportunity. The only person in Hawkins’s way at this moment is Mike Davis, who is a perfectly capable running back but also a 28-year-old career backup on a short-term, team-friendly deal. Falcons’ running backs coach Desmond Kitchings has even said “This is an open competition”.
Hawkins is an elusive back in the early stages who lacks burst but still showed the ability to break off long runs in college. He’s just about free in most leagues and while the odds are against him there is upside for a low-end RB2/Flex option in the future.
CHUBA HUBBARD
Chuba Hubbard’s fall from grace since early 2019 has been fairly amazing to witness. This time last year Hubbard was being drafted as the RB2 overall ahead of Najee Harris in Devy ADP but that all changed when he decided to return to Oklahoma State for his Junior year after completing a 2,000 yard rushing season. Regression the following year was inevitable after such an extraordinarily productive 2019 season.
Hubbard’s 2020 season was much less efficient and productive in part due to his performance and in part due to COVID-19. His yards per attempt dropped by almost two whole yards. Either way, this decision destroyed his dynasty value. By November of 2020, he dropped to RB6 in Devy ADP and fell off the face of the planet in value in our current 2021 rookie drafts after being drafted in the fourth round as the backup to Christian McCaffrey. He’s going as the RB7 in the late second-round after the likes of Kenneth Gainwell. Absolute nonsense. The backup to Christian McCaffrey who would’ve had first-round NFL draft pedigree if he just declared early is going after the fourth or fifth running back on the Eagles roster? That’s just silly. Even if you don’t believe in the player, the value and talent are undeniable.
Hubbard shows he’s capable of potentially handling an NFL workload. He carried the ball almost 26 times per game in 2019. While he’s an upfield runner he lacks the leg strength to drive piles or break tackles but he plays with great tempo and excels in the outside zone run game. He fits what the Carolina Panthers want from a running back and is in line for immediate work considering the team has stated their concern for McCaffrey and his typically heavy workload. Clearly, there’s no shot of Hubbard taking the starting role from a solidified superstar but we’ve seen McCaffrey suffer season-long injuries and just last year Mike Davis became an instant RB1 and his dynasty value spiked beyond our wildest dreams. Hubbard is significantly younger and carries the same upside making him one of the most valuable sleepers in start-up or rookie drafts this year in my opinion.
Thank you for reading. If you have any thoughts or would like to discuss, you can find me on Twitter @WillieBeamanDFF!
