Recently, the DFF team and I participated in a PPR, superflex, 1.5 PPR tight end premium redraft mock. Unlike our previous mock draft breakdowns, I’m not planning to go team-by-team and discuss how much I like each roster. However, I’ll reference my team, which I drafted from the 1.05 slot, as a basis for my general thoughts. The point of this exercise was to look at quarterback value and tight end value in this format and draw conclusions about strategy. In this first part, I’ll discuss how to handle the quarterback position in redraft superflex leagues, compared to both dynasty superflex and redraft 1QB formats.
Top Quarterbacks
In our redraft mock, the top quarterbacks were: Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, Deshaun Watson, and Russell Wilson. They’re the top six quarterbacks in both my redraft and dynasty superflex rankings, so I agree with the specific players chosen. In any superflex league, 24 quarterbacks can start each week and only a maximum of 32 starters. That positional scarcity gives high-end quarterbacks, and indeed any quarterback, extreme value in superflex leagues.
However, I do think that there is a critical difference between dynasty and redraft superflex that wasn’t considered enough at the top of the draft. In dynasty formats, part of the reason that players like Mahomes carry so much value is the longevity of quarterback careers compared to other positions. In redraft, longevity doesn’t matter, as we only care about 2020. Therefore, I believe all of these quarterbacks went too early. Mahomes and Jackson were the second and third picks, while the other four went around the turn of the first round.
Additionally, redraft rosters are shallower than dynasty rosters, meaning that there are more players on the waiver wire. In dynasty superflex formats, most backup quarterback options are already on rosters, making streamers almost impossible to find. I did a three-part series about precisely that, and you can find the links at the bottom of the article. However, in redraft, you will find some quarterback replacements in-season, as about 50-55 different quarterbacks usually start a game each year.
Outside of Lamar Jackson, who scored 27.7 fantasy points per game in 2019 and was a massive outlier, no other quarterback made a significant difference over replacement last season. The difference between Jackson and the QB2 in points per game, Dak Prescott, was the same between Prescott and the QB25, Jacoby Brissett. Like 1QB leagues, you can, therefore, wait a bit on quarterbacks because of the small difference in scoring between the top and bottom quarterbacks.
When handling this tier of quarterbacks, I’d consider taking Jackson in the mid-1st and Mahomes in the late-1st, after all the premium players are off the board. After that, I likely wouldn’t take a quarterback until the third round, based on the scarcity of top talent at running back and wide receiver. In my draft, I didn’t take a quarterback until the seventh round, but I didn’t even consider one in the first two rounds. I think that fading the top quarterbacks is an excellent strategy in redraft superflex, even though it’s not what I recommend in dynasty superflex.
The Great Options
After the top tier, the gap between dynasty and redraft superflex started to appear. After Wilson went at 2.05, only five more quarterbacks got drafted by the end of the fifth round: Carson Wentz, Josh Allen, Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers. In this part of the draft, I believe our drafters generally handled the quarterback position well. I do think Wentz and Allen went about two rounds early at 2.12 and 3.02, respectively, though. Multiple RB1 and WR1s were still there at that stage of the draft, so I definitely wouldn’t have taken a quarterback there.
Of course, Ryan, Brees, and Rodgers come at a discount in redraft superflex, as they’re all older players. In dynasty formats, I’d have to downgrade each of them due to their age, but I don’t care about that for redraft. Ryan went at 4.03 in the mock draft, which is still a touch early, in my opinion. Mike Evans, Odell Beckham, Allen Robinson, D.J. Moore, and Amari Cooper remained on the board, all of whom are in the WR1 range.
However, after Ryan, I believe that the entire draft turned on its head. Once we entered the fifth round, I indeed considered taking a quarterback. At some point, you have to get at least two starters on your roster, and I wanted to make sure I did that. The only reason I decided against it was the value of D.J. Moore at 5.05. But after solidifying a few solid starters at the top of your draft, the fifth round is where I would seriously explore the quarterback position.
QB-Heavy Rounds 6-9
In these four rounds, every remaining legitimate starting quarterback went off the board, with 17 selected in this period. While most fantasy owners would start to think about a quarterback here in 1QB leagues, I usually would wait even later to choose one. However, in superflex, I knew that no good quarterbacks would remain after the ninth round or so.
The most crucial factor in selecting a quarterback in this section is finding someone who will remain a starter throughout the season, even if I don’t think they have any real fantasy upside. For example, I’d be more interested in Sam Darnold in superflex versus 1QB leagues, as he has no serious competition for his starting job. A player like Derek Carr might present more opportunity for fantasy points early on in the season but could lose his job at some point in 2020 to his backup, Marcus Mariota.
As mentioned earlier, remember that quarterback scoring in this middle range is exceptionally flat. Only 3.6 fantasy PPG separated the QB10 and QB27, so the main point is to make sure you don’t miss on acquiring at least two starters. Which quarterback you pick won’t make or break your fantasy team, but missing out on quarterback will. Only one team failed to take two or more solid starters, a strategy I wouldn’t endorse. I don’t think the extra depth he acquired made up for the potential disaster he’s staring down without sure-fire quarterbacks.
Either way, starting in the seventh round, I would generally prefer to take a starting quarterback with my picks, unless there’s an extreme value at another position. I ended up with Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger as my two starters. While both are older veterans, I think each could produce in 2020, which is all I care about in redraft leagues. I was happy that I could load up on excellent players at other positions and still get quarterback value late.
The Rest
After the ninth round, the only starting quarterbacks left were those that don’t have a stronghold on their starting position. These included Dwayne Haskins, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tyrod Taylor, Nick Foles, and Jarrett Stidham. While Fitzpatrick and Taylor have produced fantasy points at times in their careers, each shares a depth chart with a highly drafted rookie in Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert, respectively. I think that picking these guys in the 10th and 11th round is an excellent strategy, though. Getting a few starts from them early in the season allows you to figure out a replacement quarterback once they lose their jobs.
On the other hand, Haskins and Stidham have never succeeded in the NFL, either in real life or in fantasy football, and Foles is not even a sure starter, as he’s in an actual battle with Mitch Trubisky. While I would be okay with taking a chance on them, there’s a chance all of them don’t even start Week 1. Haskins could lose his job to Kyle Allen, and the Patriots could still sign Cam Newton. I’d almost rather just grab more positional value instead of digging into this trio.
Similarly, I’m not that interested in the two rookie quarterbacks, Tagovailoa and Herbert. In redraft, holding players that might not play for multiple weeks is just not feasible. While in dynasty formats, the deep roster makes that easy to do, it’s not a luxury you can afford in redraft. I’d just avoid selecting them unless it’s clear that they will start Week 1 over the incumbent veterans.
There is one late quarterback value I like right now, and it’s Newton, who I picked in the 15th round. Unlike Tagovailoa and Herbert, there won’t be an in-season waiting game with Newton. I don’t see Newton signing as a backup. Therefore, he either signs before Week 1, giving you a free QB2 for little cost, or he doesn’t, and he’s an easy pre-season cut. There’s no risk to Newton in this early draft, and he was probably my favorite pick of my entire draft.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
