Joe Memmolo’s Inaugural Dynasty Rankings

Prologue

On May 2nd, 2020 I received a message on Twitter from my boss at Dynasty Football Factory. I was a little nervous at first–I had only joined this amazing team two months prior. I was also exhausted and still recovering from the marathon that was the “Rapid Reaction: 2020 NFL Draft Landing Spot” series where I had prepped and written out in-depth pieces on over 15 running backs over the three day period, each releasing no more than 30 minutes after the pick was made. It was a lot, but I loved it. 

Boss: “Hi Joe! Question for ya! Can I assume with your recent balling out with the Draft Rapid Reactions that you will be planning to hit your quota each month going forward?”

Me: “Of course! And thanks!”

Boss: “Well then, I have an offer for ya…”

Me: “Whatcha got for me?:

Boss: “Wanna be our official Dynasty ranker?”

Me: “Hot damn! I’d love to be!

Boss: *Party Time gif inserted here* “You’ve earned it my friend.”

Overlooking the fact that I responded to good news with the phrase “Hot damn!”, this was an incredibly happy moment for me. Seeing my hard work recognized and coming to fruition was incredibly self-affirming. The fantasy football community is vast and filled with people that are always trying to help each other. I finally feel like I’m part of the solution instead of the one always seeking answers. 

This was no time to relax though. My boss gave me the spotlight, but I wasn’t quite ready to sing. There was work to be done. There were a lot of realizations, a lot of research, a lot of messing around in excel just to get players in order. I always had a good sense of player values in my head. However, reviewing a player pool consisting of 350 players, sorting each position out, and then ranking them all together was no small task.

Taking into account current value, future value, contracts, opportunities, coach speak, and so much more turned each night into its own small puzzle. But with every night of research, the overall picture became clearer. I finally completed the puzzle…for now. It’s always changing and I plan to continue putting in the work to give the DFF Army a unique source of truth for their dynasty rankings. 

Today, May 29th, 2020 (the time of this writing) is the day I turn the light on and release my rankings to the DFF Army.

The Top 50

In this article, I give you my top 50 and spotlight six players with some of the largest differences from the expert consensus rankings and explain why I went against the averages.

There are always different cases to be made depending on current team structure (contender, rebuild, etc.), but I tried to take all of that out of the equation. Players’ current value will weigh more heavily than any projected future return, but upside is also factored against known low-ceiling commodities once you start making end-of-starting lineup and bench decisions. When on the clock or looking to make a trade, make sure to look at more than the rankings. You need to understand your team and your outlook in order to optimize your decisions. Without further ado…My Top 50:

My Guys

Austin Ekeler (RB, LA Chargers), Rank 11

Ekeler ranked 30th in the expert consensus ranking.This one shouldn’t be confusing. Austin Ekeler was a top five running back in 2019. He never saw more than 59% of the snaps from Week 6 on and was still able to  put up double digit games in all but two games. Gordon was no slouch in those weeks either, finishing 14th in fantasy points per game. Ekeler finished 6th. Even if his efficiency dips, the increased workload gained from Melvin Gordon leaving paired with his heavy involvement in the passing game gives Ekeler one of the highest floors of any running backs in 2020 and throughout the life of his contract.

Tyler Lockett (WR, Seattle Seahawks), Rank 42

Lockett is ranked 58th in the expert consensus ranking. Everyone loves the shiny new toy in the offense. The fun and exciting player with ridiculous athletic metrics, DK Metcalf. I’m a huge fan of Metcalf as well, but Lockett is only 27 years old and was on pace to be a WR 1 in fantasy before an injury and illness struck in Week 10 against San Francisco. Lockett still finished 2019 with the second-best expected catch rate, only behind Michael Thomas, and as the wide receiver 13 in PPR leagues. This is back to back seasons as a top-end WR2 in fantasy and just because Metcalf is expected to take a step up, the experts believe Lockett must take a step back.

I don’t believe that’s the case–even in the Seahawks’ run-first offense. In 2018, Lockett finished as WR16 on only 71 targets and 57 catches! To put that into perspective, he ranked 75th of all wide receivers that year in targets and ranked 39th in catches, but was able to finish 10th in receiving yards and 5th in receiving touchdowns. His chemistry with Russel Wilson is magical and has allowed Lockett to flourish in fantasy without having the top target shares. If the target share from 2019 shifts in favor of Metcalf (111 to 100), that should still be more than enough for Lockett to be a WR2 with a weekly WR1 upside. Plus, he’s guaranteed to be playing with Wilson as his QB through 2021 which solidifies his status as a high-end WR 2 for the next two years.

Ke’Shawn Vaughn (RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers), Rank 48

Vaughn is ranked 79th in the expert consensus ranking. The largest difference in my top 50 by far is Vaughn. Vaughn was tied for RB6 in my rookie rankings, but when he landed in Tampa Bay, I knew right away he’d be quickly moving up my board. Top running backs are more valuable than the top players at any other position and this article from the FF Astronauts does a great job diving into that subject. That’s why I’m so high on Vaughn. I believe that offense is going to be very efficient with Brady at the helm over the next two years minimum. Whoever the lead running back is will have the chance to break into the top 12 easily, but the question is: “Who will it be?”

I whole-heartedly believe Vaughn will be the lead back by 2021. I think he can offer a lot of immediate value in 2020 by earning Bruce Arians’ trust as the pass blocking back, something Ronald Jones failed to do over the past two years and was called out for as recently as December 2019 in this Tampa Bay Times article. Even before the draft, Vaughn was being touted by the Bucs staff for his ability to “do it all” and to “run some of the routes that Coach Arians likes to do.” Arians has been looking for his “do it all” running back. He wants someone who doesn’t need to come off the field. In the 4th and 5th round, I’m jumping all over the player they drafted to do those things and I’m forgetting all about Jones, who couldn’t beat out Peyton Barber for the lead role.

Not My Guys

Dalvin Cook (RB, Minnesota Vikings), Rank 13

Cook is ranked 5th in the expert consensus ranking. Cook is one of the most talented players in the league. He was just named the second most explosive runner in the NFL, only behind Lamar Jackson, in this nfl.com article. So why do I have him as a second-round pick? Cook is entering his fourth season in the NFL and has not played in 14 full games once, plus he has gotten injured in or missed four out of six potential fantasy playoff games (Weeks 15 and 16). Cook is great, but when I’m building my dynasty roster, I have a tendency to fade players that I don’t trust will be there when I’m playing for the championship.

What if I draft his handcuff? Well, that didn’t work out well for Mattison owners last year when he was out too and you had Mike Boone starting. Someone is going to take Cook in the top ten most likely so you should never have to choose between Cook and the others near him on my rankings, but if you do have that choice, it’s upside versus reliability. Oh, and Cook is in the last year of his contract. With teams choosing not to pay running backs big money as much, I have a hard time seeing the Vikings putting a ton of cash into a player that hasn’t been able to play a full season. This raises two questions: “What will his role be after 2020 and where will he be?”

Juju Smith-Schuster (WR, Pittsburgh Steelers), Rank 27

Smith-Schuster is ranked 14th in the expert consensus ranking. Go to a list of the top wide receivers in fantasy last year and you’ll find that JJSS is way down that list. Yes, he missed a few games due to injury, and yes his quarterbacks were atrocious after Big Ben went down, but why should that be a good excuse? DJ Moore of the Panthers had Kyle Allen and Will Grier throwing him the ball and he finished as a WR2. JJSS finished as WR65…Being 23 years old is also great for Smith-Schuster, but Roethlisberger is not going to be there forever, and he still hasn’t proven that he can be the true number one receiver in an offense after his first attempt without Antonio Brown went terribly.

I usually give him the benefit of the doubt, but the final nail in the coffin for me was when I came across Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception notes on Smith-Schuster. He was “below the 24th percentile in success rate vs. man coverage and the 12th percentile in success rate vs. press for the third-straight year.” He may not actually have what it takes to be that top tier receiver he showed when Antonio Brown was in town. He can still be a solid player, but my expectations are much lower than the current price.

Derrick Henry (RB, Tennessee Titans), Rank 40

Henry is ranked 24th in the expert consensus ranking. It was very interesting to me that Henry (24) and Aaron Jones (34) are a full round apart in the expert rankings. Henry is coming off a year where he carried the ball a whopping 386 times, but there really isn’t much of a correlation between that many carries and regression the following year. What really concerns me is two-fold: 1) Henry received the franchise tag this off-season and 2) Henry caught only 18 balls on 24 targets. With no long-term contract in sight, Henry’s future is foggy. He is in the perfect situation right now in an offense that will run him almost 20 times a game or more (see playoff wins where he received 30 each!).

The team drafted Darrynton Evans in the third round this year and despite coming out of Appalachian State, he was tied for my rookie RB6 pre-draft. I think Evans has the potential to be a lead back in the NFL. If this pushes Henry out after 2020, he still may have another 300+ carries added to his career total and I don’t have much faith in a team paying him big money coming off of 750+ carries in two years.

I think Henry has the talent to finish as a top 10 back again, but what worries me this year is the lack of work in the passing game. Without targets, the floor for Henry is very low on a game by game basis. If a defense is able to contain his running ability, we could see week-losing performances such as his game against Denver last year where he only had 3.8 points. Henry just isn’t the kind of player I want to buy in dynasty start-ups, but if you can get him where I have him ranked, I believe that’s enough of a discount to invest. 

Last Call

I love fantasy football. It’s what drives me to keep researching every player on my rankings list, continually fine-tuning it so that others can benefit. I also love interacting with everyone in the fantasy football community so please feel free to reach out @DFF_JoeMem on Twitter if you have any questions or if you want to debate any players! I’ll continue this series with a deeper look into players 51-100 in the next few weeks so keep an eye out!