Rookie Analysis
Every off-season the Combine comes and Twitter is ablaze with all of the size narratives. “If he’s short I’m not drafting him.” “If his BMI is too low I’m not drafting him.” “I don’t care what their size is, if they produce I like them.” “Size doesn’t matter!” “Size DOES matter!” What we do not see during this time is much real evidence with actual context. We are just given narratives or one-off examples of outliers. “Cooper Kupp ran a 4.65 and he just had the best WR season ever, 40 times don’t matter.” “DeVonta Smith has a BMI of 22.5 but he won the Heisman, I’m drafting him.” Today, my goal is not to fight for one side or the other. It is to look at the real numbers, with an unbiased eye and determine if these NFL combine metrics matter for fantasy football.
Your author has broken down his pre-combine rookie rankings into positional rankings with tier designations to help you better view the dynasty rookie draft landscape. It is important to remember these rankings are created with fantasy football purposes in mind. We will dive eight players deep with the QB and TE positions and ten players deep with the RB and WR positions. Up next, the TE position is detailed for the upcoming 2022 NFL Draft.
Your author has broken down his pre-combine rookie rankings into positional rankings with tier designations to help you better view the dynasty rookie draft landscape. It is important to remember these rankings are created with fantasy football purposes in mind. We will dive eight players deep with the QB and TE positions and ten players deep with the RB and WR positions. Up next, the WR position is detailed for the upcoming 2022 NFL Draft.
As an exciting offseason event known as the NFL Scouting Combine is about to unfold, it is fun to take a look at this year’s NFL prospects as they stand. With this data looming, as well as draft capital and NFL landing spots, it is important to note that these players are not locked in where they currently stand.
Your author has broken down his pre-combine rookie rankings into positional rankings with tier designations to help you better view the dynasty rookie draft landscape. It is important to remember these rankings are created with fantasy football purposes in mind. We will dive eight players deep with the QB and TE positions and ten players deep with the RB and WR positions. Up first, the QB position is detailed for the upcoming 2022 NFL Draft.
Treylon Burks is the Arkansas Razorbacks’ standout wide receiver and one of the top prospects in the 2022 class. He accumulated over 2,300 receiving yards on 146 career receptions at Arkansas and finished his final year with 66 receptions for 1,104 yards and 11 touchdowns as a Junior during the 2021 season.
This series of articles will cover the process I use to prospect and filter through each year’s rookie class, with each piece outlining a new player. I like using data to initialize my prospect profiles because it’s easy to examine many players quickly. Another reason is that there are no biases, it is strictly transposing stats from SRCFB to my database. This lets me get a clear view of the player’s overall profile without being biased by any outside opinions or flashy highlights. Once I collect the group of players and their stats I put them into groupings and then ultimately rank them. The next player of this series is a guy that should be getting more recognition due to how his college team performed but is still being disrespected.
This series of articles will cover the process I use to prospect and filter through each year’s rookie class, with each piece outlining a new player. I like using data to initialize my prospect profiles because it’s easy to examine many players quickly. Another reason is that there are no biases, it is strictly transposing stats from SRCFB to my database. This lets me get a clear view of the player’s overall profile without being biased by any outside opinions or flashy highlights. Once I collect the group of players and their stats I put them into groupings and then ultimately rank them. This series is going to kick off with someone who is currently a sleeper but should be talked about at the top of this class.
It’s officially playoff time and we’re all living in a Covid-fueled fantasy hellscape as we’ve never seen before. Luckily, we play dynasty so we can say “Next season’s our year” like we’re Cowboy’s fans in January and think about the offseason. Rookies should be at the top of your buy and sell plans so we’ll continue our Dynasty Rookie Rankings series with the talent-packed 2021 receiver class. Make sure you’re caught up with the running back class.
It’s Bowl Season, baby! For college football fans, nothing quite matches the heightened drama of often hilariously named season finales. I, for one, have reached a feverish enthusiasm. I cannot wait to begin grading prospects for my 2022 rookie drafts. I wanted to share that excitement with the #DFFArmy with a sneak peek into the market shares of some of my favorite wide receiver prospects. Consider this a “pre-Bowl” program of sorts. Let’s get to know the stars before they take center stage for their closing performances.
Michael Carter has been the RB3 over the last four weeks. Let that sink in. It’s worth reminding folks that the Jets’ running back has been leading the team in target and relying on this receiving volume might not always be sustainable but the talent is being noticed. The GM and coaching staff need to put all their effort into the offensive line this offseason before we see the rushing efficiency we’d want out of a running back but I continue to be encouraged by all the moves I’ve seen thus far. Buy him now while there are still those who doubt.
No touchdowns despite a decent rushing game that resulted in a flex-like game for Khalil Herbert. The Chicago offense looked much better while Matt Nagy was out (more on this later) and Justin Fields vultured opportunities after a healthy uptick in rushing usage. It’s obviously disappointing to those hoping to have another RB2 performance before Montgomery’s return but consider this encouraging for all of our Chicago shares in the future. Herbert should have Tony Pollard-like upside in the future and is a hold no matter what.
Elijah Mitchell continues to dominate the 49ers ‘backfield and is running as efficiently as any player should in this system. Trey Sermon has been relegated to a special teams player and doesn’t seem to be a threat, however, JaMycal Hasty has returned and received 34% of the snaps as the third-down back. This will cap Mitchell’s receiving production but the 49ers have a running scheme that gives its players a chance to score anytime they touch the ball. Mitchell lacks size but has the burst to replicate Raheem Mostert’s production and can actually stay on the field. So far anyway. Mitchell should be considered the second-ranked rookie running back behind only Najee Harris.
Philadelphia’s game against Tampa Bay was strange all-around and DeVonta Smith had one of his worst games of the season. The Eagles have a banged-up offensive line and all but abandoned the run game and pass inefficiently without it complimenting the play-action. It should also be noted that Zack Ertz, who lead the team in targets for the game, is now gone. DeVonta Smith should arguably be in the ‘To the Moon’ category, but the rookie’s value may be cheaper as we head into byes and his bad game. Teams will be evaluating if they’re ready to win or not and may want to sell for something more certain.
Khalil Herbert is set to be Chicago’s RB1 for Week 6 after an injury to David Montgomery and Damien Williams being placed on the Covid list. Fortunately enough Herbert has looked like a better prospect than his draft stock would indicate and has made the most of his touches. Herbert is an explosive downhill runner that is a better backup to Montgomery than Williams. If I could get him for cheap he’s a stash I’d love to have stashed on my roster.
Kenneth Gainwell is going to be annoying for everyone, but now is not the time to sell him. The Eagles are clearly running with a two-headed approach like most of the NFL and any week can be huge with his high receiving floor and red zone usage. Gainwell is a flexy starter that will be a boom or bust option every week but the receiving work has him already ranked ahead of “starter” Miles Sanders in all formats. Sanders was a product of the old regime and it appears the new staff has more trust in Gainwell to handle two-minute drill and scoring work. Running back is too thin for you to give up a young rookie with upside.
The Chuba Hubbard lottery ticket has finally hit, and it’s time for non-CMC owners to cash in while they can. Yes, you need to cash in. Hubbard doesn’t have great vision and doesn’t have the offensive line to overcome that major flaw. Hubbard isn’t anywhere near the talent of Christian McCaffrey and desperate owners competing would more than likely pay a second-round that could turn into an actual starter.
Nothing has changed for Justin Fields since last week. He got his own package to get a few plays just like Trey Lance, and completed two for two passing for 10 yards, and running it in for his first real touchdown. The current Bears starter still looks like a competent backup and not the guy you want starting when you’re an HC on the hot seat. Chicago’s rushing attack looks fantastic and will relieve pressure off the rookie once he takes the reins. I can’t wait to see more RPO play-calls with him and David Montgomery. The time for Fields to start is any day now, so buy now before he gets even more expensive than he is.
In 2020, Justin Herbert became the first rookie QB to throw for over 4,000 yards and 25 TDs. He broke the NFL rookie record for TD passes and completions, in fact. As a result, Keenan Allen put together a more impressive season than any WR in our sample. Still, digging a little deeper, Allen did leave some meat on the bone. He finished as the WR7 in PPG despite seeing the second-most targets per game. He recorded a career-low of 9.9 yards per reception, as well. These minor inefficiencies can likely be chalked up to the growing pains of a rookie QB.
When one rookie receiver climbs in value, one is usually falling in value. But is the rising value worth the price? Is the falling value worth the lessened price? Is the higher valued receiver even the better receiver? Cue: Jaylen Waddle versus Rashod Bateman.
Each season in dynasty leagues there are post-rookie draft waiver targets that provide a tremendous value for owners who were savvy or lucky enough to find them on their roster. Some provide an immediate “home-run” return like James Robinson did last season. Others make great taxi squad stashes that provide value later and might be tradeable for better assets (think Boston Scott, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Allen Lazard, Preston Williams, Collin Johnson, etc.). The majority will fall flat as expected.
Death, taxes, and analysts propping up rookie face plants. These second-year receivers are likely presented as premium buy-low players. Players that are still young and have perceived upside. But does buying rookie face plants work? Is it a viable strategy? We must first define what a face plant is. For this study, we will consider 7.5 PPR (per game) or less a face plant. This leaves us with a sample size of 229 receivers (all data of drafted wide receivers since 2010). Of those 229, only 13 went on to achieve at least a top 24 positional finish and only nine were able to achieve more than one. That’s a staggering 5.7% achieving at least a top 24 positional finish and 3.9% achieving more than one. Not exactly odds that we would want to bet on, let alone trade away rookie draft capital to acquire.
Each year in dynasty formats a new set of rookies come in that take your attention away from the veterans and last year’s class. In this article, I am going to break down some of the rookie RBs from the 2020 class and give you some insight on what’s to expect this season and beyond. The 2020 Rookie RBs are like no other, and with the value and hype that each possesses, these backs will likely continue to be great dynasty assets.
With the 2021 NFL Draft in the books and teams beginning their offseason mini camps, the NFL offseason is approaching a lull. We will overreact to one-on-one videos of a wide receiver breaking a defensive back’s ankles on a route when the receiver knows the play and the defensive back does not. Or it might be in the form of a running back making a decent-looking body catch against air. We may even see more statistics about Zach Wilson being 0-5 against teams with 10 or more wins in that respective season and posting just one passing touchdown in those five games.
Today’s fantasy landscape grows more and more complex. When evaluating rookie prospects we have so many different stats and metrics to look at. The hard part is figuring out which ones are important and which do not matter. That is where regression analysis can come in and play a large role. I will be using regression analysis to help build a predictive grading model that can be used to easily sift through many players to quickly identify guys to avoid and target. Our end goal when selecting rookies is who will be the best fantasy assets when they hit the NFL, and the best assets are the ones who score us the most fantasy points. To create my rookie model I used regression analysis and sorted through multiple different metrics to determine which correlated to NFL fantasy points per game (FP/G) the most and which correlated the least.