Last summer I wrote about my historic FFPC dynasty rookie hit rates, and how those later picks in the third and fourth rounds typically hold at least a couple of gems. If you can find the space on the limited roster in this format, those later picks are worth scrapping for. I spend them just as easily. I never let a third-round pick get in the way of making a bigger deal that I like. Often I will add a third to my offer just to further entice my potential partner.
Not all owners value later picks in this format. Some do. Even with sub-optimal hit rates, if you take enough dart throws you should eventually hit a couple of bullseyes. If you combine this concept with a sharp scouting eye, your dart throws should carry a little more weight than the average dart throw.Â
Here is a look at my updated numbers after the 2021 season, with the usual caveat that these hits and misses are somewhat pliable. I am calling Travis Etienne (RB – JAX) a miss at this juncture, but in a year, I may revisit that. I called Michael Pittman (WR – IND) a hit two years ago with this same caveat, but 2021 confirmed my call there. I called Gabriel Davis (WR – BUF) a hit two years ago and right now his value has never been higher, although he still has more to prove.
In the FFPC format, we have to cut down to 16 players, including a kicker and a defense, by March 31st. That is coming up very soon and if you have fringe players that you might cut, or that you aren’t sure about, float a message board post to advertise them. Take a 3rd or 4th for them. I recently bought Albert Okwuegbunam (TE – DEN) for a 4th round draft pick because I have room to roster extra players on a rebuilding squad. There are always rebuilding squads that might be able to take on one of your throwaway players. Better than just cutting them and getting zero extra dart throws.Â
I’d like to take a moment to note that in my figures here I am calling Elijah Mitchell (RB – SF) a hit and that furthermore, I was able to keep him and roster him in 9/11 leagues where I drafted him. It is pretty hard to realize the upside ceiling of one of these dart throws if you can’t find room to roster them. The in-season limit is 20. I usually carry something like 24-26 players by the time September cuts roll around. But by then I should be much more informed about some of these dart throws than when I make them in May.Â
But as I say each year, there are franchise-changing players to be found every single season in these late rounds. Diamonds in the rough are worth hustling for. Occasionally they all hit.
Stay tuned around the time of the NFL draft and the FFPC rookie draft in early May as we look at the 2022 rookie class.
Thanks for reading! Feel free to reach out to me to chat about fantasy football on Twitter @Ship_Chaser and follow along with me on my journey as I chase six-figure paydays! Look for my new articles soon!
