Dynasty Analysis
Joe Douglas gets his first free agent of 2021 as the Jets finally look to rebuild their organization after two years of tearing it down. The Twitter analysts are on both sides of the good and the bad for his fantasy value, but the one thing everyone agrees on is the value of the contract. The Jets didn’t blow the bank open for the biggest name (yet) but instead charged along “Joe Douglas” way by finding the value in the market. Davis didn’t start to show signs of being worth his first-round pick until last year which was his fourth year in the league.
In college Jonnu Smith broke out as a true freshman for FIU with 388 yards and two TDs, earning a dominator rating of 23.8%. A 710 yard and eight TD sophomore season was Smith’s most productive, as he earned a 42.6% dominator rating. However, injuries slowed down Smith in the latter half of his collegiate career. Smith was a piece of the 2016 Jared Goff trade that landed the Titans a litany of draft capital. Smith was selected in the third round of the 2017 NFL Draft by the Tennessee Titans at the 100th overall pick. In his four seasons with the Titans, Smith amassed 114 catches for 1,302 yards and 16 TDs. He is coming off his most productive season in which he turned 65 targets into 41 catches, 448 yards, and eight TDs along with one rushing TD. He finished as the TE20 in fantasy football, underperforming based on his TE16 dynasty ADP.
As the start of NFL free agency inches closer, now is an excellent time to explore some landing spots that could boost Will Fuller’s outlook. The speedy wideout will be entering his sixth season and is coming off a year cut short due to a six-game PED suspension after Week 12. Fuller was on pace for a monster season, posting career-highs in receptions, yards, and TDs to the tune of 53/879/8 in 11 games played. He was the WR8 in PPR scoring during that stretch. The suspension came at a crucial time in the fantasy season as those who owned him had to find a way to replace that production heading into the fantasy playoffs.
Harris found more success in his sophomore season. In ten games, he carried the ball 137 times for 691 yards and 2 TDs. However, with just 7 targets in that span, he failed to make a real impact in the receiving game. During that stretch of ten games–Weeks 4 through 14–Harris was the RB29. His 9.1 PPR points per game placed him between Devin Singletary and Jamaal Williams for the season.
The year was 2014, amongst many other discrepancies in the world, Jimmy Graham changed his Twitter bio to inform the world that he was a wide receiver, not a tight end. An NFL arbitrator had to step in and rule on this case. Why is this important? Because Jimmy Graham was franchised tagged by the New Orleans Saints and wanted to be designated as a wide receiver rather than a tight end. Graham lined up split out on 67% of the Saints snaps the previous season. If Graham had been designated as a wide receiver, he would have made 71% more money on his franchise tender than as a tight end. The NFL arbitrator ruled that Graham was a tight end, saving Mickey Loomis millions of dollars.
Today is March 11, 2021, this is important because we are less than a week away from Free Agency. On March 17th we will likely find out where players such as JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kenny Golladay, Aaron Jones, Will Fuller, Curtis Samuel, Corey Davis, Todd Gurley, Marvin Jones Jr., Kenyan Drake, T.Y. Hilton, A.J. Green, and Hunter Henry will land. There are 43 days until the NFL Draft, and in most years we would have the NFL Combine to overreact to, however, as you know the NFL Combine was canceled due to the pandemic. Although we do not get to see all of the relevant players get their testing measurables in the same conditions, we still will get good data from the school’s Pro-Days.
On the surface, this feels like a signing that should mean nothing, however, this could be the best news David Johnson managers received since he signed his own extension nine days ago! David Johnson is most likely nearing the end of his fantasy relevance, but with an extension and the chance of Mark Ingram being his top competition for touches this year, he may just go out with a BANG! His health is a concern, but in the 12 games that Johnson was on the field in 2020, he scored double-digit points. Those numbers are golden for a player with an expert consensus ranking of RB27 on FantasyPros.
Heady Mafia, the franchise tag option deadline for NFL teams has come and past and you know what that means. Chaos and bedlam all over the place! Now, most people will just give you a list of teams that this player might sign with and others give teams that can offer the most money but let’s be honest. Only one thing matters to us. Fantasy production. In particular, fantasy production for the hottest running back on the market and the one I own in most of my dynasty leagues, Aaron Jones (AJ33).
Every season teams lose valuable receiving options from the prior year, and every season fantasy managers daydream about the possibility of a random bench piece inheriting all that volume. While this narrative has played about favorably for a handful of players, in the grand scheme of the NFL, it is actually very rare. “Vacated Targets” is the snake oil of fantasy football. Don’t let yourself get duped.
Every year in fantasy football, there are players who take the next step towards becoming “must-own” dynasty assets. Finding who these players are is one of the many things that make fantasy football such a challenging and rewarding game. The purpose of this article is to discuss a few of those targets who could be on the cusp of entering top-12 first-round dynasty status.
Kwity Paye came out of Bishop Hendricken high school as a three-star defensive lineman with plenty of accolades to his name. Coming out of Rhode Island, Paye was at a camp where he clocked a spectacular 4.5 40-yard dash, vaulting him to the top-ranked player in his state for the 2017 recruiting class. A high 3-star recruit, Paye was a First-Team All-State pick. Off the field, Paye won the Rhode Island State Championship in Long Jump with a mark of 21 feet and 5 inches. The stud defender had his choice of multiple offers but ultimately decided that Ann Arbor was the right place for him. While at Michigan, Paye carved out a solid career for the Wolverines.
Last year I looked into the Restricted Free Agent (RFA) market in search of sleepers we may be able to dig up. Unfortunately, it wasn’t that exciting. The likes of Kendrick Bourne, Isaiah McKenzie, David Moore, and others ended up resigning and had limited impact throughout the year. The best of that group last year was Keelan Cole who ended up with 55/642/5. We as dynasty owners are always trying to find value or that next guy that could take a leap. The free-agent class this season is much deeper and more exciting. However, for fantasy, we are always looking for that throw-in piece into a trade or a player forgotten as an afterthought. I am hoping to give you some names to grab before the beginning of free agency to acquire cheaply or for nothing at all.
Around this time each season, the dynasty community seems to grow a little bit bigger. There is a resurgence of enquiring social media posts along the lines of “Has anyone played dynasty fantasy football? It looks really fun but I’m not sure where or how to begin”. Every time I see one of these, I get excited. So excited in fact I have decided to write an article, for you – the enquiring mind. Here at Dynasty Football Factory, we want to ensure that all levels of dynasty players are catered for – from the beginner who has never been in a league, to the most seasoned of players.
The best way to play fantasy football is to not care about the rules of the game at all. My home league had one flaw that kept hassling us as the years went by. We completely forgot that fantasy football is a game. It’s a game about a game and you make the rules. Why not play around with them? Keep you and your friends on their toes! Give no one an edge by mixing it up with your redraft leagues every year.
The Rayne Dakota Prescott contract saga in Dallas is finally over. After months of “will they, won’t they?”, sanity has prevailed and Prescott has signed a four-year contract to remain the franchise quarterback of America’s Team. Adam Schefter announced the details of the contract which includes $126million in guaranteed money and Dak will earn an eye-watering $75M in his first year which includes a record-breaking $66M (!) signing bonus.
I am fortunate enough to roster Travis Kelce in one of my dynasty leagues. Every offseason I wrestle with the idea of trading him away while I can maximize the value. Every offseason I decide I’ll hold him for just one more year. Playing the age game in a dynasty league is difficult, so I decided to dive into the historical performance of players age 30 or older at the tight end position. Here’s what I found.
Ohio State’s offense took advantage of Justin Fields arm strength. A spread offense at its core, mixed in plenty of downfield shots to a talented wide receiving core. Unlike other spread offenses, Ohio State used downfield concepts to get guys open. Fields’ ability to launch the ball downfield with the touch and accuracy which he does, is phenomenal.
Monday, the news became official that J.J. Watt had accepted an offer from the Arizona Cardinals for two years and $31 million with $23 million guaranteed. For the two and a half weeks he was a free agent, Watt had been linked to the Buffalo Bills, Green Bay Packers, Cleveland Browns, and a few other teams. For Watt, it is the end of an impressive era with the Houston Texas, who selected him 11th overall in the 2011 NFL Draft. The fan-favorite won the hearts of millions with his work ethic, integrity, and authenticity. Heading into his age 32 season, J.J. Watt embarks on the twilight hours of his career as he chases the ever-elusive Lombardi trophy.
We composed a four-person mock draft at DFF to start collecting devy rank data. For some people, a devy-only draft will be coming up soon, while for others the only draft of the season will be a blended rookie and devy draft after the NFL Draft takes place. We will go over how to value devy players versus rookie players later in this offseason, but for now, let’s dive into the devy debates.
The analytics vs. film debate is ripping you off. Neither side is willing to come to the middle and admit defeat. But the problem is bigger than that. The analytics versus film debate is forcing you, the fantasy football GM, to make decisions based on half-truths.
Here at DFF, we completed a startup dynasty league draft with a unique format that few had tried before. But few will willingly go back to a standard snake draft after experiencing the thrill of the hybrid setup. This was a shallow, 12-team league including a Superflex starting roster and tight end premium scoring. The unique format of this draft is that we started with a partial auction, then rounded out the rosters with the standard snake-style.
If you’re anything like me, you grabbed Robby Anderson every year he was with the Jets expecting a massive breakout. You usually came up empty-handed as Anderson only finished inside the top 24 once (WR18 in 2017). In 2020, he signed with the Panthers and, after a fast start, finished as WR19. The Robby rollercoaster has burned a lot of fantasy managers over the years, so I decided to find out if last season was an outlier or the new normal.
A few weeks ago, I was scrolling the Twitter timeline and saw several tweets about the value of rushing quarterbacks, and how the “Late Round QB” (LRQB) strategy in fantasy football (popularised by JJ Zachariason) was on the wane. Seemingly, the consensus was that capturing the upside that rushing quarterbacks bring to your lineup, was worth the opportunity cost of selecting one in the early to middle rounds of your draft. As a fervent proponent of the LRQB theory, my immediate thought was to dismiss it, but my curiosity got the better of me – so I went to the data to see what I could find.
Among running backs in the 2021 rookie class, three players have clearly risen to the top: Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, and Javonte Williams. All of these players are likely coming off the board in the first round of rookie drafts. The next RB to come off the board is where the questions start to come up. Who is the best of the rest? In this series, several members of the DFF staff will try to make a case for who they think answers that question. Today, I’ll be making the case for Kenneth Gainwell.
Yes, some of us are still nursing Super Bowl hangovers or regretting watching Tom Brady walk out of the organization he called home for the last two decades, but there are three things we love in Fantasy Football: Start-Up Drafting, Trading & Rookie Drafts. So the team at DFF got on board and jumped the gun on a 2021 way too early Rookie Mock, and the results will surprise you in just how deep this class is on the back of a stellar 2020 class.