Dynasty Analysis
In this coming series, I will be diving into each NFL team and putting forth my predictions on what I think they will do in the 2021 season. I think having a set of reasonable or expected projections can help us during our drafts. They can help differentiate between closely ranked players, not only by comparing floor but also by comparing potential upside. I will be showing a set of realistic or expected projections and telling you if I think anyone is being under or overvalued in best ball/redraft drafts right now. These can also be used in a dynasty mindset, especially if you are a contending team. But, even if you are in a rebuild these projections could outline a young, cheap player who may get more work than a lot of people think. Let’s dig in.
Saquon Barkley (RB-NYG), as we all know, tore his anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) and meniscus in his right knee in Week 2 (September 20th) of the 2020 NFL season. It was a devastating injury for the consensus top-five fantasy player, an injury that would land him on the IR for the remainder of the season. However, most assumed that he would be back to 100% by the start of the 2021 season and this assumption was reflected in his fourth overall fantasy ranking in half-point PPR. An assumption, that I like to call the Adrian Peterson effect or “The AP Effect” for short.
Miles Sanders’ stock is dropping, and his fantasy value is in a completely opposite situation than last offseason at this time. The third-year pro put together a somewhat disappointing season in 2020. He played in four fewer games than his rookie year, he hardly outproduced his rushing statistics, and he was simply a non-factor as a receiver out of the backfield. In 2019, he finished as the RB15 in PPR leagues compared to the RB23 in 2020.
I think at this point we are all well aware of how unwanted a high ankle sprain diagnosis is for our fantasy football superstars. No injuries are good injuries when you are competing for fantasy football championships, but high ankle sprains have been a death sentence in recent years. Why? Well to understand why it derailed the fantasy football seasons of Michael Thomas, Raheem Mostert, and Christian McCaffrey in 2020, we need to better understand high ankle sprains.
Julio Jones will be traded to the Tennessee Titans for future second and fourth-round picks. Jones who was drafted as the sixth overall selection in 2011, spent 10 productive seasons in Atlanta. In that time Jones became one of the most productive wide receivers in NFL history hauling in 848 catches for 12,896 yards and 60 TDs. He will instantly become Tennessee’s WR1 sufficiently boosting the outlook for Ryan Tannehill’s 2021; let’s dive into how it impacts his fellow Titans teammates along with how his departure impacts the viable fantasy options in Atlanta.
Accountability is paramount in this business, and last season your author swung big on both Montez Sweat and Ifeadi Odenigbo. One was a home run and the other was a strike-out. Montez Sweat broke out for a double-digit sack season playing across from top draft pick Chase Young, as well as in tandem with fellow defensive interior players Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen, who each boast first-round draft capital of their own. Ifeadi Odenigbo, on the other hand, was not accompanied by perennial all-pro Danielle Hunter, who threatened to hold out before opting for surgery to repair an injury. He ended up missing the entire season and the Vikings’ entire pass rush struggled.
For the Heady Mafia and loyal members of the #DFFArmy out there, you can take a break from reading this paraphernalia as it’s not about you. Although, please get ready to forward this to some people in your life. This barely conscious smattering of words on paper…fine, “digital” paper, is for Tom from Accounting, Susan from Human Relations, or my wife 10 years ago. This is for the people who for some strange reason, despite the ease of it, have yet to dip their itsy-bitsy toes into the foray of fantasy football. I am here today, to tell, no, dare say, educate you (ok fine, “brainwash”) why those excuses you keep giving your significant other, family member, or coworker will no longer work in this day and age. So, let’s get down to business and make our way through the bullshit that is your excuse. Bonus, I am even going to give you a type of fantasy football league that would suit you best for this year.
We learned that tackles are king at safety! The top five finishers in IDP scoring at safety all finished with more than 100 total tackles each through week 16. The top five stars of the safety position included Jordan Poyer, Budda Baker, Jessie Bates, Jeremy Chinn, and Adrian Phillips. Of those finishers, three are under the age of 26, and amazingly, Jeremy Chinn was able to crack the top five as a rookie. Chinn looks primed for another excellent year of production in 2021, so if you roster the Carolina safety, you are looking fine.
Each season in dynasty leagues there are post-rookie draft waiver targets that provide a tremendous value for owners who were savvy or lucky enough to find them on their roster. Some provide an immediate “home-run” return like Kamren Curl did last season or Maxx Crosby in 2019. Others make great taxi squad stashes that provide value later (think Jerome Baker, Josey Jewell, Jeffery Simmons, Dre Greenlaw, D.J. Wonnum, Alex Highsmith, etc.). The majority will fall flat as expected.
We learned that the young star linebackers were prepared to dominate once again! Both Roquan Smith and Devin White came into 2020 with extremely high expectations, and both delivered with resounding success. These two superstars combined for 280 total tackles (140 each), 32 tackles for loss, and 13 sacks on the season. Finishing just behind these two phenoms was a trio of consistent veterans in Zach Cunningham, Blake Martinez, and Joe Schobert. Barring any major unforeseen changes, the 2020 top five should produce well again in 2021.
For the next couple of weeks, we are going to project whose fantasy stock is up and whose fantasy stock is down entering the 2021 season. There will be a player whose stock is up and a player whose stock is down from each team. We will be breaking down each division at a time. In this edition, we will analyze the AFC East.
In 2020 Dynasty Football Factory launched a series titled “Schemes Are Ch-Ch-Changing”. Each edition of the series explored how a new defensive coordinator would affect defenders as fantasy assets. The David Bowie song “Changes” would roll through my head as I started each article. I admit it; by the sixth or seventh article, I began to cringe at the title. I reached out to the team at DFF for ideas. Thus, I give you “Scheme or Scam.” The premise remains. I will investigate for each article how a new defensive scheme will deploy defenders and how that will translate to fantasy value. I write about this because it’s information I sought out and could not find when I began playing IDP fantasy football just a few years ago.
Each season in dynasty leagues there are post-rookie draft waiver targets that provide a tremendous value for owners who were savvy or lucky enough to find them on their roster. Some provide an immediate “home-run” return like James Robinson did last season. Others make great taxi squad stashes that provide value later and might be tradeable for better assets (think Boston Scott, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Allen Lazard, Preston Williams, Collin Johnson, etc.). The majority will fall flat as expected.
Death, taxes, and analysts propping up rookie face plants. These second-year receivers are likely presented as premium buy-low players. Players that are still young and have perceived upside. But does buying rookie face plants work? Is it a viable strategy? We must first define what a face plant is. For this study, we will consider 7.5 PPR (per game) or less a face plant. This leaves us with a sample size of 229 receivers (all data of drafted wide receivers since 2010). Of those 229, only 13 went on to achieve at least a top 24 positional finish and only nine were able to achieve more than one. That’s a staggering 5.7% achieving at least a top 24 positional finish and 3.9% achieving more than one. Not exactly odds that we would want to bet on, let alone trade away rookie draft capital to acquire.
While the Texans may look like a terrible franchise that could be without Deshaun Watson this season, there’s still value to be found in their backfield. The Texans signed Mark Ingram and Phillip Lindsay to one-year contracts adding to David Johnson and a number of backs that have remained irrelevant. The average age of the Texans backfield by the start of next season is 26.8, which is basically geriatric for the NFL.
The days of the traditional sleeper are quickly fading with a community full of hard-working analysts and tape grinders who nail down even the least known players before most of the NFL scouts can get their eyes on them. Ok, that might be a bit of an exaggeration (It’s not!) but the dynasty market is saturated with content. Therefore, most players will be given some sort of spotlight and as a result, the entire population of dynasty managers is more knowledgeable as a whole making “sleepers” much more difficult to discover and take advantage of.
There exists a great divide between redraft and dynasty fantasy football. Many factors contribute to the considerable gap between the two, but one aspect unique to dynasty is the constant evolution. The ability to adjust as a dynasty manager is key, whether it is fixing a mistake made in the start-up draft or understanding the applied strategy is outdated or unreliable in today’s dynasty landscape, success hinges on one’s aptitude for self-reflection and change.
During this “dead period”, of impact Fantasy Football content, it’s always good to take inventory of your roster and identify “who’s hot” and “who’s not”, from a Dynasty values perspective. The idea lends itself to helping you make strategic moves and improving your starting line-up production while insulating with production potential. The following recommendations are meant to help you find ways to expand your production potential via the off-loading of “hyped” assets, whether proven or unproven. These examples are not to say that these players possess poor value; rather it’s due to the perceived value that might allow you to move them in to strengthen your overall roster.
After firing Adam Gase, the Jets hired Robert Saleh who quickly brought in Mike LaFleur. They signed Tevin Coleman to a one-year, $1,100,000 contract and drafted Michael Carter in the fourth round with pick 107. Coleman and Carter join La’Mical Perine, Ty Johnson, and Josh Adams in the backfield.
James Robinson managers were shocked (maybe) in the draft when the Jaguars selected Travis Etienne in the first round with the 25th overall pick. This wasn’t out of the question going in, as the Jags had a lot of draft capital to throw around, but it was a bit surprising to me. James Robinson was more than serviceable in 2020, he was good. They also added veteran depth to the backfield during free agency in the form of Carlos Hyde.
Each year in dynasty formats a new set of rookies come in that take your attention away from the veterans and last year’s class. In this article, I am going to break down some of the rookie RBs from the 2020 class and give you some insight on what’s to expect this season and beyond. The 2020 Rookie RBs are like no other, and with the value and hype that each possesses, these backs will likely continue to be great dynasty assets.
With the 2021 NFL Draft in the books and teams beginning their offseason mini camps, the NFL offseason is approaching a lull. We will overreact to one-on-one videos of a wide receiver breaking a defensive back’s ankles on a route when the receiver knows the play and the defensive back does not. Or it might be in the form of a running back making a decent-looking body catch against air. We may even see more statistics about Zach Wilson being 0-5 against teams with 10 or more wins in that respective season and posting just one passing touchdown in those five games.
Get familiar with 2021’s closest sure thing. Ja’Marr Chase is the best wide receiver prospect we’ve seen since Julio Jones. No really, Julio Jones. Chase checks all the boxes we look for in wide receiver prospects and then some. Let’s first look at his draft capital. Draft capital is a great indication of what an NFL team thinks of a prospect and just how much they like (or don’t like) him. The Bengals made Chase the fifth overall selection on April 29th. What other receivers have been drafted with such elite draft capital? (All Data is from 2010-2021)
The only Falcon with meaningful rushing numbers that returns to the team is Matt Ryan. Todd Gurley and Ito Smith are both free agents, and Brian Hill is a Titan. The Falcons return Tony Brooks-James and Qadree Ollison, but neither one has contributed much to the franchise at this point in their careers. The biggest name in the Falcons backfield is Mike Davis, who they signed to a two-year $5,500,000 contract this past offseason. The team also signed Cordarrelle Patterson, a converted wide receiver who saw 64 carries with the Bears last season. Not to be lost in the fray, are UDFAs Javian Hawkins and Caleb Huntley.
Miami is similar to the 49ers in that they give one guy a ton of work, it’s just sometimes difficult to be sure who that guy is going to be. In every game he played, Gaskin saw more than 60% of the snaps. He even saw 70% or more in five games, which was half of his games played. When Gaskin was out, Ahmed stepped in and received 46%, 76%, 66%, and 60%. They’re going to give the ball to primarily one guy, and right now that one guy looks like Myles Gaskin.