For the next couple of weeks, we are going to project whose fantasy stock is up and whose fantasy stock is down entering the 2021 season. There will be a player whose stock is up and a player whose stock is down from each team. We will be breaking down each division at a time. In this edition, we will analyze the AFC East.
Bills
Stock Up – Josh Allen
| Year | Team | Games Played | Completion Percentage | Yards | TDs | INTs | Rushing Yards | TDs |
| 2018 | BUF | 12 | 52.8% | 2,074 | 10 | 12 | 631 | 8 |
| 2019 | BUF | 16 | 58.8% | 3,089 | 20 | 9 | 510 | 9 |
| 2020 | BUF | 16 | 69.2% | 4,544 | 37 | 10 | 421 | 8 |
Last season, Josh Allen broke out and delivered an MVP-candidate season. He did so by connecting with Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley regularly. What did Buffalo do last offseason for Allen? They brought in Diggs, a deep-threat arsenal, and one of the top wide-outs in the league. What did they do for Allen this offseason? They signed Emmanuel Sanders to a one-year, $6M deal to complement Buffalo’s receiving core. They are also bringing back both Isaiah McKenzie and Gabriel Davis. Don’t forget about Dawson Knox and a trio of running backs in Devin Singletary, Zack Moss, and Matt Breida.
Allen finished his third season as a pro with 4,544 passing yards, 37 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. He completed 69.2 percent of his passes, and he also ran for 421 yards and eight touchdowns. He has improved each season so far, and he’s only 25 years old. Allen also put together outstanding fantasy numbers last season as he finished as the QB1 overall in 2020. So how is his stock going up?
First of all, Buffalo is a pass-first team that depends solely on the play from Allen. In his first two seasons, he showed his talent by rushing for a bunch of yards and connecting on a lot of short-yardage passes. With the addition of Diggs last season, Allen showed off his arm strength as he improved his yards per attempt from 6.7 in 2019 to 7.9 in 2020. Now that Sanders is on the team, he is going to have another deep-threat option to throw to. Allen is going to be scary once again, and it’s not out of the question that he can improve even more this upcoming season.
Allen’s 2021 Prediction
Passing: 4,687 yards, 39 touchdowns, 8 interceptions
Rushing: 518 yards, 8 touchdowns
Stock Down – Devin Singletary
| Year | Team | Games Played | Carries | Yards | Yards/Carry | TDs | Receptions | Yards | Yards/Catch | TDs |
| 2019 | BUF | 12 | 151 | 775 | 5.1 | 2 | 29 | 194 | 6.7 | 2 |
| 2020 | BUF | 16 | 156 | 687 | 4.4 | 2 | 38 | 269 | 7.1 | 0 |
As mentioned above, there are three running backs on this roster that will see touches in 2021. Singletary was drafted by Buffalo two years ago in the third round of the 2019 NFL Draft. Last year, they drafted another running back (Moss) in the third round as well. On top of that, Buffalo acquired Matt Breida in free agency just a couple of months ago. Singletary now looks like he has lost his RB1 status in the Bills’ offense.
Although he was somewhat relevant as a fantasy option in his rookie season (finished as the RB29 in PPR and RB30 in standard), his fantasy value diminished in 2020. He finished as the RB30 in PPR leagues and the RB35 in standard leagues. He finished with similar numbers in 2020, but he was supposed to take the next step. Entering the 2021 season, his ADP is around the RB39 spot. His teammate, Moss, looks to eventually take over his RB1 spot in Buffalo, and Breida will also hurt his fantasy value as well.
We are going to state it again. Buffalo is a pass-first team, and if you’re an RB battling two others for snaps, there won’t be a lot of optimism surrounding your fantasy value. Keep in mind, Allen is a mobile quarterback that puts up better rushing numbers than his RBs on a consistent basis. Specifically, he out-rushed both Singletary and Moss in four of the 16 regular-season games and two of the three playoff games last season. In fact, Singletary was the leading rusher for the Bills in only six of the regular season games, He finished with 687 yards and two touchdowns while carrying a 4.4 YPC average. His time as the starting running back for Buffalo looks to be about over.
Singletary’s 2021 Prediction
Rushing: 129 carries, 554 yards, 3 touchdowns
Receiving: 32 receptions, 232 yards, 1 touchdown
Dolphins
Stock Up – Myles Gaskin
| Year | Team | Games Played | Carries | Yards | Yards/Carry | TDs | Receptions | Yards | Yards/Catch | TDs |
| 2019 | MIA | 7 | 36 | 133 | 3.7 | 1 | 7 | 51 | 7.3 | 0 |
| 2020 | MIA | 10 | 142 | 584 | 4.1 | 3 | 41 | 388 | 9.5 | 2 |
Last season, Gaskin served as Miami’s RB1 when he was on the field. He didn’t have much competition once the team cut Jordan Howard in November. Matt Breida was also on the team last year, but he ended up being unproductive and very injury-riddled throughout the year. Salvon Ahmed was his backup, and that was the entire running back room.
Gaskin started seven games, but he only played 10 of the 16 last season. In those 10 games, he finished with double-digit PPR points in all but one (9.2 in week 4). He also finished inside the top 10 in PPR points three times. The second-year pro finished his 2020 campaign with 584 rushing yards and three touchdowns while also catching 41 passes for 388 yards and two touchdowns. As mentioned, he only played in 10 games. Those numbers calculated at a 16-game pace would’ve turned into 934 rushing yards, five rushing touchdowns, 66 receptions, 621 receiving yards, and three receiving touchdowns. In a PPR league, that’s what you would want from one of your starting RBs.
As you can see, Gaskin is in the “stock up” category. That’s because Miami didn’t bring in players that were going to compete with Gaskin as the RB1 for this team. Sure, they brought in Malcolm Brown, but he’s essentially a bonafide backup who gets a ton of goal line touches. He will not hurt Gaskin’s fantasy value whatsoever. Expect Gaskin to be the team’s feature back each and every week. It also helps that Tua Tagovailoa looks to be more of a “dink and dunk” type of QB at this point. This will help Gaskin mightily as a pass-catcher out of the backfield.
Gaskin’s 2021 Prediction
Rushing: 217 carries, 933 yards, 5 touchdowns
Receiving: 52 receptions, 501 yards, 2 touchdowns
Stock Down – DeVante Parker
| Year | Team | Games Played | Receptions | Yards | Yards/Catch | TDs |
| 2015 | MIA | 14 | 26 | 494 | 19.0 | 3 |
| 2016 | MIA | 15 | 56 | 744 | 13.3 | 4 |
| 2017 | MIA | 13 | 57 | 670 | 11.8 | 1 |
| 2018 | MIA | 11 | 24 | 309 | 12.9 | 1 |
| 2019 | MIA | 16 | 72 | 1,202 | 16.7 | 9 |
| 2020 | MIA | 14 | 63 | 793 | 12.6 | 4 |
Once upon a time, DeVante Parker was drafted 14th overall in the 2015 NFL Draft. He was considered a “bust” after his first four seasons. At that point, his best season came in 2016 (his second year) where he caught 56 passes for 744 yards and four touchdowns. He regressed mightily as he finished with just 24 receptions for 309 yards and one touchdown in 2018. Then out of nowhere, Parker finally showcased why he was a former first-round draft pick.
In 2019, he set career highs in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. He finished his fifth season with 72 receptions for 1,202 yards and nine touchdowns. We finally caught a glimpse of what he could do on a consistent basis. So what happened next? Well, the Dolphins drafted Tua to become their new starting QB. Tua’s lack of deep-ball accuracy and inability to target his top receiving option caused Parker’s fantasy value to plummet.
Parker finished last season as the WR46 in standard leagues and the WR40 in PPR leagues. He caught 63 passes for 793 yards and four touchdowns. These aren’t necessarily bad numbers, but for a team’s WR1, they aren’t great. To make things worse, Miami brought in a Pro Bowl-caliber player in Will Fuller and drafted Jaylen Waddle sixth overall in this year’s draft. Keep in mind, Miami also has a solid, young tight end on their team in Mike Gesicki. On paper, a receiving core that has Parker, Waddle, Fuller, and Gesicki is a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses, but for Parker’s fantasy value, it’s not good at all.
Parker’s 2021 Prediction
Receiving: 61 receptions, 817 yards, 5 touchdowns
Jets
Stock Up – Corey Davis
| Year | Team | Games Played | Receptions | Yards | Yards/Catch | TDs |
| 2017 | TEN | 11 | 34 | 375 | 11.0 | 0 |
| 2018 | TEN | 16 | 65 | 891 | 13.7 | 4 |
| 2019 | TEN | 15 | 43 | 601 | 14.0 | 2 |
| 2020 | TEN | 14 | 65 | 984 | 15.1 | 5 |
Could Davis finally live up to his full potential? He was drafted fifth overall in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft. Since then, he has yet to eclipse the 1,000-yard receiving mark, and his career-high in receptions is 65. He is coming off a season where he finished with 65 receptions for 984 yards and five touchdowns. The fourth-year pro finished as the WR29 in standard leagues and the WR30 in PPR leagues last season with the Titans. So what does his New York Jet future look like?
Well, if you take a look at the Jets’ wide receiver depth chart, you will find Davis as the team’s WR1. Breshad Perriman left town for Detroit, so that leaves Jamison Crowder, Denzel Mims, Keelan Cole, Braxton Berrios, and rookie Elijah Moore left to compete with Davis for targets.
We all know what Crowder can be and what he really is. He’s a player who can top the 100-yard receiving mark in a game, but he’s not going to produce consistent numbers. His best season as a Jet came two years ago when he caught 78 passes for 833 yards and six touchdowns. He’s simply a WR2/3 on any team he plays on. Mims is a big question mark at this point. His rookie season was disappointing, and he only caught 23 passes for 357 yards. Cole and Berrios are depth pieces that can shine on certain weeks if their number is called. Then there’s the rookie. Moore could find himself as the WR2 or WR3 by the end of the season for the Jets, but it’s hard to imagine him taking away Davis’ fantasy value. At the end of the day, Davis is the WR1 on this team, and he will be targeted heavily by his new rookie quarterback Zach Wilson.
Davis’ 2021 Prediction
Receiving: 72 receptions, 1,066 yards, 5 touchdowns
Stock Down – Ty Johnson
| Year | Team | Games Played | Carries | Yards | Yards/Carry | TDs | Receptions | Yards | Yards/Catch | TDs |
| 2019 | DET | 16 | 63 | 273 | 4.3 | 0 | 24 | 109 | 4.5 | 8 |
| 2020 | DET/NYJ | 13 | 54 | 254 | 4.7 | 1 | 16 | 99 | 6.2 | 10 |
There were times last season where Johnson was given ample amounts of opportunities to succeed. He did play for the Lions early on in the season, but he ended up finishing the season with the Jets. In fact, he started one of the 11 games he played for New York. Playing behind Frank Gore and splitting carries with La’Mical Perine made things difficult for Johnson. With Gore battling injuries in week 11, most thought Perine would take over as the RB1 for the Jets. Instead, Johnson came away with 22 carries for 104 yards and a touchdown.
Gore ultimately returned as the starter, but Johnson made the most of his opportunities. He finished with 254 rushing yards on 54 carries (4.7 YPC) and one touchdown. He also hauled in 16 receptions for 99 yards and a touchdown as well. These numbers aren’t great, but there was optimism for Johnson going into the 2021 season. Well, that was before the team decided to bring on Tevin Coleman in free agency and draft Michael Carter in the fourth round.
Johnson will battle Coleman, Carter, and Perine for touches during the season. Gore is no longer in New York, and he’s currently a free agent. Coleman comes over from San Francisco where he finished with just 28 carries for 53 yards in eight games last year. Although the running back room looks crowded with question mark players, the RB1 spot is definitely up for grabs. Johnson’s fantasy value does take a beating with the additions of Coleman and Carter though.
Johnson’s 2021 Prediction
Rushing: 42 carries, 172 yards, 1 touchdown
Receiving: 9 receptions, 94 yards
Patriots
Stock Up – Damien Harris
| Year | Team | Games Played | Carries | Yards | Yards/Carry | TDs | Receptions | Yards | Yards/Catch | TDs |
| 2019 | NE | 2 | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| 2020 | NE | 10 | 137 | 691 | 5.0 | 2 | 5 | 52 | 10.4 | 0 |
IT LOOKS CLEAR! Damien Harris is the RB1 for New England this season. He had to battle back from injuries last season to overtake the starting spot over an injured Sony Michel and an inconsistent Rex Burkhead. New England didn’t address the RB position this offseason, and it looks as if the starting spot is Harris’ to lose. Burkhead is no longer on the roster, and yes, James White was brought back, but he’s simply on the field to catch the ball out of the backfield. Last season, White carried the ball just 35 times compared to Burkhead’s 67, Michel’s 79, and Harris’ 137.
Although he missed the first three and the final three games of the season, Harris looked solid when he was on the field. In the 10 games he played in, he carried the ball 137 times for 691 yards (5.04 YPC) and two touchdowns. He also caught five passes for 52 yards. Between weeks four and 13 (the games Harris played in), the second-year pro finished as the RB26 in PPR leagues and the RB18 in standard leagues.
With 12 career games under his belt, Harris can now take off in the fantasy world. He won’t be a huge factor in PPR leagues because of James White. But he’s certainly earned the starting running back role over Michel at this point. Expect New England to rely heavily on the run this season with Harris featured as the primary back in Bill Belichick’s offense.
Harris’ 2021 Prediction
Rushing: 212 carries, 975 yards, 7 touchdowns
Receiving: 11 receptions, 92 yards
Stock Down – Jakobi Meyers
| Year | Team | Games Played | Receptions | Yards | Yards/Catch | TDs |
| 2019 | NE | 15 | 26 | 359 | 13.8 | 0 |
| 2020 | NE | 14 | 59 | 729 | 12.4 | 0 |
Arguably New England’s most consistent pass-catcher in 2020, Meyers looks to have a more crowded receiving room around him this year. Before we look at why Meyers’ stock went down, let’s take a look at what he accomplished last season. He finished as the WR53 in full PPR leagues. Here’s the kicker: the talented wide-out was the WR29 between weeks six and 17, but he never scored a single touchdown all season (hasn’t scored one in his two-year career yet).
With the additions of Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne, Jonnu Smith, and Hunter Henry, Meyers will have a tough time finding consistent production. You still have to keep N’Keal Harry in mind even though he hasn’t produced a 350-plus receiving yard season yet. Demiere Bird left for Chicago in the offseason, but New England brought back James White. White has caught 40 or more passes out of the backfield six seasons in the row. You also have to factor in that Cam Newton is projected as the starting QB right now and that he’s more of a “dink and dunk” type of QB at this point. This means he is going to rely on his two tight ends and his running back(s) out of the backfield heavily.
Meyers could find himself as the odd man out of the offense. He’s projected to start at the slot WR spot for now, but he can line up outside on any given play. Bourne comes into New England after hauling in 49 receptions for 667 yards and two touchdowns last season. On the other hand, Agholor is coming off a resurging season where he produced 48 receptions for 896 yards and eight touchdowns with Las Vegas last season. There’s no clear-cut evidence that these two receivers will outproduce Meyers, but they will certainly hurt his fantasy value in 2021.
Meyers’ 2021 Prediction
Receiving: 41 receptions, 508 yards, 2 touchdowns
Rushing: 2 carries, 11 yards
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