In this coming series, I will be diving into each NFL team and putting forth my predictions on what I think they will do in the 2021 season. I think having a set of reasonable or expected projections can help us during our drafts. They can help differentiate between closely ranked players, not only by comparing floor but also by comparing potential upside. I will be showing a set of realistic or expected projections and telling you if I think anyone is being under or overvalued in best ball/redraft drafts right now. These can also be used in a dynasty mindset, especially if you are a contending team. But, even if you are in a rebuild these projections could outline a young, cheap player who may get more work than a lot of people think. Let’s dig in.
First, I’ll just touch on my process. I start by looking at the team and individual player trends over the last 2-3 seasons. I get stats like target shares, rush shares, yards per carry, yards per reception, completion percentage, and yards per attempt. As well as team-focused stuff like a pass to rush play ratio (this is just team pass attempts divided by team rush attempts), pass to rush touchdown ratio, and total plays. I then use these past trends and try to predict what will be in store for 2021. Here are my projections for the Baltimore Ravens’ fantasy-relevant players.
Keep in mind, these stats are for the new 17 game season and not the old 16 game season. I have Lamar Jackson clocking in at a whopping 28.2 fantasy points per game. You may feel like 473 attempts are way too many for Lamar, but I promise it is not. This would equate to 28 pass attempts per game. In 2019 the Ravens threw 27.5 attempts per game and I see them trending more towards the pass just like they did in that season. With the addition of two wide receivers in the draft, two new wide receiver coaches, and John Harbaugh emphasizing the pass in a lot of interviews I think a trend up in passing makes sense.
The big thing to look at here is the pass play to rush ratio. In 2019 the Ravens had a 0.73 ratio, and in 2020 it was 0.74. With these additions I bumped this number up slightly to 0.80, the league average is about 1.2 so I feel this number is more than fair. To get the rest of the stats I just used historical efficiencies for these players and extrapolated from there. I think it is safe to say Lamar Jackson is being undervalued in drafts right now. His ADP is about QB5, and I believe with his elite rushing floor and high TD rate he should be the QB2 or QB3 at minimum in most drafts.
J.K. Dobbins is quite a divisive topic these days. Some people see a lead back on the best and highest volume rushing team in football and argue he should be a top-six to eight back. Others see J.K.’s ceiling capped by not only Lamar but also Gus Edwards and place him outside of their top 12. I think Dobbins falls in between these spectrums. His ceiling is absolutely limited, there is no denying that. But, he has such a great floor due to his skill and the offense he is in. He deserves to be in the RB 10 to 14 range in my opinion and in drafts he is currently going around RB16 to 20. Draft him as a floor RB asset.
Nothing out of the ordinary with Mark Andrews; he will be a good TE asset and he will catch a lot of TDs. He is being drafted where he should be. The poor ADP comes with Marquise Brown vs. Rashod Bateman. Marquise is being drafted almost three whole rounds ahead of Bateman, and I am expecting them to have a very similar workload at the least. But, even with a similar workload, I see Bateman catching more TDs and scoring more points. In these drafts, I have been fading Marquise and snatching up Bateman whenever possible. If you want to see what we think of Rashod Bateman’s landing spot with the Ravens more in-depth you should check out this article.
That is all I have for you here today. I hope you enjoyed and look out for the next installment, when I take on the LA Chargers, with Justin Herbert in his second year, a new coaching staff, and a couple of great offensive line additions.
Wow, you read all the way through! Thank you, I really appreciate you using your time to enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions. You can find me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017, DFF Draft Director. Shoot me a DM, they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, and #Analytics content, along with rankings for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much!
