Introduction
It’s been far too long since I’ve visited the writer’s box, so I’m revising an “Oldie but Goldie” strategy piece for your eyeholes to feast upon.
During this “dead period”, of impact Fantasy Football content, it’s always good to take inventory of your roster and identify “who’s hot” and “who’s not”, from a Dynasty values perspective. The idea lends itself to helping you make strategic moves and improving your starting line-up production while insulating with production potential.
The following recommendations are meant to help you find ways to expand your production potential via the off-loading of “hyped” assets, whether proven or unproven. These examples are not to say that these players possess poor value; rather it’s due to the perceived value that might allow you to move them in to strengthen your overall roster.
Let’s dive in…
Always Be Building
In my humble opinion, this is the battle cry all Dynasty Football owners should adopt. What does it mean you ask? It’s simple, it is a Dynasty owner who is constantly seeking knowledge, and then proactively acting upon knowledge gained to fortify their roster’s stability. After all, a cornerstone in becoming, and remaining, a successful Dynasty Football owner is to remain active on all fronts or as I like to say, a vigilante of vigilance.
Selling High
The concept is a simple one. However, oftentimes it becomes clouded when we allow an emotional attachment to creep in. This is when ruling over your emotional intelligence is paramount if you are to successfully navigate the “always be building” mantra.
Selling high is intended to accomplish one goal, which is to jettison premium asset(s) to insulate your team with options representing a greater appeal, without sacrificing your core, and/or insulating with a girth of production potential. Premium assets, or assets “perceived” as premium, should always be leveraged for a bounty. Never “sell high” on a premium asset to only get one player in return. That’s not selling high, that’s swapping production. I’ve cautioned fantasy owners for years on the negatives in moving a “stud” for a “stud”. In a Dynasty format, it’s a simply poor use of your resources if long-term dominance is your goal.
I realize some of you maybe be thinking, what if I had an injury and needed a replacement? Or, I’m deep at one position and weak at another, and the team I am dealing with has the opposite issue so, it’s fair and makes sense for both of us. Okay, sure. There is always a way to justify it, I get that, but at the end of the day, premium assets should ultimately be used to strengthen your entire unit and not a singular position.
In most cases, one player won’t change the dynamic of your Dynasty team. The Dynasty experience is a marathon, not a sprint. Timing is everything, and if you’re willing to throw caution to the wind to win the title and rebuild in the off-season then so be it. However, from a value and “Dynasty building” standpoint, you would be better served to maximize the ROI on your premium asset(s) and insulate your dynasty team, while setting yourself up to remain competitive for the long term.
Rookie Fever
Let’s talk about one of the most exciting ways you can make a trade while truly growing your roster’s production potential. The beauty of this is the construct has been provided for you by the communal “hype-machine”. The best time of the Dynasty season to “sell the hype” is now! We are weeks removed from the NFL Draft, and Dynasty owners are going through withdrawals as they await the start of the preseason. Make no mistake, there is one thing that has a grip on most of our emotionally charged Dynasty mates, and it’s the seasonal case of Rookie Fever.
Rookie Fever is a very real syndrome in the Dynasty Football realm. Take advantage of this time to leverage your rookie players or rookie picks to the highest bidder IF they are willing to pay a premium.
Not only is Rookie Fever something to keep close tabs on, but also moving premium veteran assets who may not be part of your ideal roster construction. For instance, if you are in rebuild mode, moving a Michael Thomas to a contending team, or shipping Aaron Rodgers off for a nice bounty would be wise moves to make. The format will always dictate value, so be sure you understand your league format before selling or offering away your premium assets veteran or not. It’s not selling for the sake of selling, it’s selling for an intended purpose.
Identifying the “Hyped”
This off-season is no different than any other. We could discuss several players who are positioned beautifully as a “hype” candidate. Therefore, let’s tackle a player whose hype has reached astronomic levels already.
Rookie Fever Hype – TE Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
Obvious right? Let’s just get this out of the way now. We all know Pitts is a specimen. He is everything we have been waiting for in a tight end prospect since, hell, forever. His situation is shaping up to be a nice one with an aging Matt Ryan needing another weapon, while the whispers of Julio Jones taking his leave before the season begins. Keep in mind, there will be an even greater value placed on Pitts in TE Premium formats. So, why put Pitts on this list? Let’s examine…
*Kyle Pitts is one of the highest-drafted tight ends in NFL history.
*Pitts is already being ranked in the Top Tier of Dynasty tight end rankings.
*Atlanta HC Arthur Smith has experience working with athletic tight ends (Jonnu Smith).
*Matt Ryan is fawning over him.
*Julio has one foot out the door.
*Zero running game. Unless you believe journeyman Mike Davis will catch lightning in a bottle…again.
*Tough division.
*Lots of potential targets to be had.
*Realistic threat in becoming a Fantasy Gawd starting in year one.
There you have it, in a nutshell, the stars are aligning for Pitts to be the GOAT right? After all, this guy is an amalgam of David Boston & Calvin Johnson. He is a man-child at a position where fantasy owners have been dying to find the next Tony Gonzalez. The future is here blah, blah, blah. Here’s the thing, 99.99% of the Dynasty community wouldn’t argue an ounce of that either. But, this is where you zig when they zag my friends.
As good as Pitts could be, and even if he erupts in year one, he won’t win you the title by himself. Now, if your team is already contending then sure, hold him and ride the wave. However, if you’re in the process of a rebuild or smack dab in the middle of a nuked team then this is the perfect time to “sell the hype”. The odds are against Pitts for making a significant impact in year one. For perspective, one of the freakiest tight ends to get drafted in the first round was Vernon Davis. Another athletic specimen. He had all the tools and I mean all of them. Davis was drafted sixth overall in the 2006 NFL Draft and ran a 4.38 40. His first NFL reception was even for a touchdown. So, what was his rookie profile you ask? Here goes…20 receptions, 265 yards, and three touchdowns.
Okay, yes, his season was cut short due to injury (he only played in 10 games). But that’s kind of the point. You never know what might happen once the season begins. The hype fades quickly when the player isn’t on the field to continue to fuel the hype. During his 14-year career, Davis averaged 41.6 receptions, 540 yards, and 4.5 touchdowns per season with his best season coming in year four with 78 receptions, 965 yards, and 13 touchdowns.
Certainly, it’s fair to say that the NFL was much different back then. After all, it’s a pass-first league these days. However, the main point is that if you don’t have the luxury to see if Pitts pans out first with adequate production potential you would fare better by parlaying his hype into a bevy of assets of proven production in return. To be clear, I’m not advocating trading Pitts for Eric Ebron, Mecole Hardman, and two random first-round picks. But, if we are talking about a TE Premium format, I would be looking for Noah Fant, a first-round pick, a second-round pick, and another player in the Michael Pittman range as a starting point, and that’s not an unrealistic return.
Summary
I am by no means saying Pitts won’t be a smash in 2021. As illustrated above, the stars are aligned for him to do some special things this season. However, history says differently and we are talking about maximizing your ROI on a hyped player. Pitts undoubtedly fits the bill to a “T”. That being said, finding a trade partner is a whole other story. So, if you are looking to capitalize on moving hyped assets be sure you are strategic in identifying your potential trade partners.
Don’t allow yourself to be emotionally attached to any particular player. Allow sense and sensibility to guide you towards building a format-competitive “Dynasty team”, not a team with one or two big names. Remain vigilant, and be prepared to strike while the iron is hot, and remember…Always Be Building!
Thanks for reading! Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @AlwaysBBuilding. Onward!
