After the NFL draft, there are quite a few backfields without a clear picture of who the workload is going to fall on. While it’s possible some backfields may continue as committees, more than likely, a few of them will have one guy receive a large volume of the work. That’s what I’m aiming to dive into in this series: who will emerge from the muddy backfields and cement their place as a fantasy value this season?
Luckily, JJ Zachariason has already put in the research to show us what to look for. Even though his research is primarily for redraft, we can apply it to dynasty as well. Breakout running backs typically aren’t handcuffs. They come from ambiguous backfields and are oftentimes drafted as the 2nd back from their team. Pass catchers have an easier route to breakout, as there is typically a three rush to one reception workload ratio. Most importantly, age doesn’t matter. Players in their 5th year are just as likely as rookies to break out in these situations.
Current Depth Chart
After firing Adam Gase, the Jets hired Robert Saleh who quickly brought in Mike LaFleur. They signed Tevin Coleman to a one-year, $1,100,000 contract and drafted Michael Carter in the fourth round with pick 107. Coleman and Carter join La’Mical Perine, Ty Johnson, and Josh Adams in the backfield. I expect the depth chart to shake out like this:
- Tevin Coleman
- Michael Carter
- La’Mical Perine
- Ty Johnson
Lead Back or Committee?
The hiring of Mike LaFleur means Saleh is wanting to do something similar to what the 49ers do offensively. LaFleur had been with Kyle Shanahan since 2014 and had followed him from Cleveland to Atlanta to San Francisco. The Jets are likely going to employ a “next-man-up” backfield that has led to huge fantasy success if you can land on the right man. It might seem like a bit of a stretch to say that LaFleur is going to do everything he can to be a one-to-one copy of the 49ers, but I don’t think that it is out of the question. Everything that I talked about in my 49ers article earlier this offseason applies to what this Jets offense could potentially be.
Who Do I Roster?
A bigger question than what this backfield will be is who will the backfield feature. While I took my best swing at a depth chart, there isn’t really any combination of the four (or even five including Josh Adams) that would shock me. Instead, let’s talk about the possibilities and play the narrative game for each.
Tevin Coleman
I think Tevin Coleman is the day one starter simply because he’s familiar with the offense. He followed Shanahan to San Francisco and now he’s following the offensive system to New York. Coleman has seen a ton of fantasy success in this system, but with injuries, he may not be able to handle the brunt of the work. He only saw more than four carries once in the six games he played last season.
I’m not really interested in rostering Coleman. If I have him, I’m trying to sell people on his ability within this system sooner rather than later. With only a $400,000 dead cap hit, if one of the other backs shows ability within the offense, he could end up not even making the final roster.
Michael Carter
Michael Carter comes in with fourth-round draft capital, which isn’t super meaningful for runningbacks, but it’s more than anyone besides Tevin Coleman brings to the table. We can also play the narrative game with Zach Wilson and say that the rookies will be working together and develop a report. If that happens, this would obviously give Carter an edge.
Carter was stuck behind Javonte Williams at North Carolina but still outproduced him in yards from scrimmage. Don’t get all hot and bothered by Carter though, he’s on the small side which doesn’t pair well with his lack of explosiveness and limited speed. He could produce in this offense, but it will be because of volume. Right now he’s probably going no later than RB5 in rookie drafts, and that feels like you’re drafting him at his ceiling. If he’s available in the mid-second, take the shot. Otherwise, I’d avoid him altogether until we know more about what the backfield looks like.
La’Mical Perine
La’Mical Perine was drafted last season by Adam Gase and never really got off the ground, only going over 50% of snaps twice. He’s projected by some to be the starter, but drafting another RB in the 4th round the following year makes me think the incoming staff didn’t see anything they liked. He only averaged 3.6 yards per carry and 1.5 targets per game last season, so there’s not much to write home about with the limited sample size.
The good thing about Perine is you can most likely acquire him for next to nothing. If I’m RB-needy, I’d rather take a dart throw on Perine than whoever’s available in the 3rd round of rookie drafts.
Ty Johnson
Ty Johnson is the guy I’m stockpiling from this offense. He’s bigger and faster than Michael Carter. He came to the Jets in Week 5 last season and had two top-24 performances (RB6, RB19). While he never really saw much of an opportunity in Detroit, he finished 2019 with a 4.3 yards per carry average. He has consistently shown the ability to be explosive when given the opportunity, even though the opportunity has been hard to come by.
In an offensive scheme that’s shown the hot hand gets the ball, Ty Johnson could find himself being the hot hand next season. The best part is he’s virtually free.
Thanks for reading! If you have any fantasy questions, reach out to me on Twitter @fantasyonefive, and be sure to check out the rest of my work on DFF!
