Dynasty Analysis
Tarik Black put together a rather disappointing college career. He came into the NCAA with a lot of hype given the fact that he was a 4-star recruit who committed to Michigan University over teams like Alabama, Notre Dame, Auburn, and others. After playing for Michigan for three seasons, Black decided to transfer to Texas University. He had a much larger role for the Longhorns, but he only played in six games during his lone season with the team. Although his college numbers don’t look enticing, he has the skillset to become a complete receiver in the NFL.
After the NFL draft, there are quite a few backfields without a clear picture of who the workload is going to fall on. While some backfields may continue as committees, more than likely, a few of them will have one guy receive a large volume of the work. That’s what I’m aiming to dive into in this series: who will emerge from the muddy backfields and cement their place as a fantasy value this season?
Luckily, JJ Zachariason has already put in the research to show us what to look for. Breakout running backs typically aren’t handcuffs. They come from ambiguous backfields and are oftentimes drafted as the 2nd back from their team. Pass catchers have an easier route to breakout, as there is typically a three rush to one reception workload ratio. Most importantly, age doesn’t matter. Players in their 5th year are just as likely as rookies to break out in these situations.
After the NFL Draft, there are quite a few backfields without a clear picture of who the workload is going to fall on. While it’s possible some backfields continue as committees, more than likely, a few of them will have one guy receive a large volume of the work. That’s what I’m aiming to dive into in this series: who will emerge from the muddy backfields and cement their place as a fantasy value this season?
Jaret Patterson is a shifty runner with quick feet. He won’t blow you away with his 4.58 speed, but he was good at making people miss in college when working with minimal space. There were a lot of red flags on film with Patterson. Several times where bigger defenders were able to take him down without help. He’s hesitant at times when making the decision of which hole to hit. Patterson has excellent ball security and drive. He’s a competitor. He’s a fun player to watch, but I’m not sure his skills are going to translate in the NFL.
Javian Hawkins wins with speed. His 4.45 40-yard dash isn’t out of this world, but his tape shows an in-game speed that’s faster than that. He’s lightning in a bottle and was able to gash defenses in college. His acceleration is great. He’s a player that seems to be running at top speed all the time.
Jermar Jefferson broke out as a true freshman in 2018 as he garnered Freshman All-American, Pac-12 Freshman of the Year, and honorable mention all-conference honors with 1,380 rushing yards and 12 scores on 239 carries (5.8 per attempt). Jefferson also caught 25 passes for 147 yards that season, displaying his competence as a receiver. The following season, an ankle injury stunted his sophomore campaign limiting him to six starts in nine games played as he compiled 142 carries, 685 yards, and eight touchdowns. Jefferson rebounded in 2020, earning first-team All-Pac-12 accolades by ranking fourth in the FBS with 143 rushing yards per game and ninth with 159.5 all-purpose yards per game. He did miss one game due to COVID-19 protocols.
Tamorrion Terry had 118 receptions for 2,221 yards in his three-year college career at FSU. Terry entered college on the older side as a 21-year-old redshirt freshman but made an immediate impact once he got on the field. He caught 35 receptions for 744 yards and eight touchdowns as a freshman but truly broke out as a sophomore catching 60 passes for 1,188 yards and nine touchdowns. Terry’s 2020 season was cut to just four games to a knee injury he underwent surgery for in October leading to him inevitably opting out. For that reason, we will focus on his 2019 season in teams of production. In 2019 he accounted for 32.20% of his team’s offensive production and 2.94 adjusted yards per team pass attempt. For context, Jerry Jeudy accounted for 2.98 adjusted yards per team pass attempt in 2019.
Gregory Rousseau is a part of the enormous list of players that hurt their draft stock by opting out. Ja’Marr Chase and Micah Parsons were the only two players whose opt-outs didn’t affect their draft capital. Unfortunately, our man Gregory Rousseau made a bad decision. Your author wrote about this back in September in the weekly seasonal “Draft Stock Watch” series. There is no arguing Rousseau’s superior athletic ability and speed around the edge. The DE out of Miami trailed only 2020 number two overall pick Chase Young in total sacks in the entire FBS in 2019.
Jamin Davis entered the 2021 NFL draft as a redshirt junior. He was a starter for the University of Kentucky Wildcats for just one year. Davis topped off a very productive year with a break-out bowl game versus North Carolina State. He collected 13 tackles, was in on a QB sack, and picked off a pass to secure a victory. He ended the season with 102 tackles including four for loss and four forced turnovers.
Kylin Hill does a lot of things very well. He might now be elite in any one trait, but he doesn’t show many weaknesses on tape. His running style is aggressive and he finishes off runs with violence. He has a second gear that he can hit when he sees space. There isn’t a lot of tape on Hill in 2020, but from what I did see in the LSU game, he has a lot of potential as a runner.
At his Pro Day, Elijah Mitchell measured 5’10” and 201 lbs, giving him a BMI of 28.8. His best 40-yard dash time was 4.40-seconds which equates to a 107.3-Speed Score, 86th percentile. He also achieved a 127.8 burst score, 88th percentile, and an agility score of 11.14, 79th percentile. Mitchell is above average in every athletic testing category and these are very important when talking about RBs. Overall I am impressed with his athletic profile, he has good size and profiles to be an RB that can secure a great touch share in the NFL.
Jaelon Darden is one of your annual small-school stories where an incredible athlete, who was overlooked by large programs, emerges. Darden was a high school QB, so he possesses basic knowledge about reading coverages and finding openings in the defense. He played in all 14 games as a backup WR during his true freshman season compiling 281 yards and three TDs on 32 receptions, while also contributing as a punt and kick returner. While he still returned punts, Darden focused on offense as a sophomore, hauling in 48 receptions for 575 yards and four TDs.
Simi Fehoko had 62 receptions for 1,146 and nine touchdowns in his three-year college career at Stanford. Fehoko is another wide receiver on the older side entering the draft at 23 years old. Although Fehoko is listed as playing three years he was a reserve as a freshman and played just four games catching a single pass for six total yards. He broke out as a sophomore finishing 2019 with 24 catches for 566 yards and six touchdowns. Fehokofollowed up his breakout season with an underwhelming 2020 where he caught 37 passes for just 574 yards and three touchdowns. Most of his production came in two games, however, he did account for 35.7% of his team’s offensive production.
Kenneth Gainwell was a wildcat quarterback in high school and rushed for 4,730 yards on 501 attempts. He was recruited by Arkansas State, Idaho, Ole Miss, and Tulane. Ultimately, Gainwell decided to play for the Memphis Tigers. He started his career at Memphis with just a few touches but was eventually red-shirted as a freshman.
Brevin Jordan has been a consistent and big-time contributor in the Hurricanes’ offense the past three seasons. He started as a true freshman after entering Miami as the number one TE recruit in the nation. Jordan finished this past covid-19 adjusted season with his best numbers, compiling 38 receptions for 576 yards and seven TDs. He did miss three games with a shoulder injury.
Ian Book finished his four-year career with the second-most career passing yards in Notre Dame’s history (8,948). He also finished second in career passing touchdowns (72) and second in career QBR (147.0) amongst those who attempted 500 or more passes. Book also put up great rushing statistics in college as well. In 45 career games, he produced 1,517 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns. The dual-threat quarterback can beat you both with his arm or with his legs, and in today’s game, being able to pass or run on any given down creates a major disadvantage for defenses.
Chuba Hubbard profiles as more of a committee back because he seems to lack pass-catching ability. With this deficiency, his upside is capped a bit. If given the opportunity, he could jump into a 1st and 2nd down role and could be a consistent producer in a zone scheme. He has great patience, uses his blockers well, and has enough finishing speed to score long TDs.
Bill Belichick must’ve really missed having someone in that LeGarrette Blount role because Rhamondre Stevenson is a bowling ball running back who can fill that need immediately. From a fantasy perspective, this is a terrible landing spot because trying to figure out who the Patriots are going to utilize each week is still a nightmare. However, it seems like Belichick is trying to build up his defense and establish players in key roles on his offense that have worked for him in the past. The Patriots’ backfield is now a mess filled with Damien Harris, Sony Michel, James White, Branden Bolden, JJ Taylor, and Stevenson. Stevenson will project to Harris has two years left, while Michel is entering his last year unless New England decides to pick up his option next year. Stevenson is an interesting late third or early fourth-round pick due to the fact that the Blount role has been relevant in the past. But it’s so crowded right now, that you’re hoping he can survive next year’s draft too before really adding much to your fantasy teams and that’s a bet I’m not hoping to take.
Michael Carter averaged eight yards per carry during his senior season at UNC, but the tape really looked underwhelming as a whole. When I watch Michael Carter, I see someone who is always looking at where the hole will be created for him, instead of someone who is running to make yards for himself. On the inside, he keeps a good low pad level, as if to hide from defenders, but doesn’t have the burst to break through early oncoming defenders. On the outside, Carter does well combining his speed and vision, however, his acceleration and deceleration in and out of his cuts are underwhelming which makes him feel slower. I have some big doubts about Carter’s ability as a rusher at the next level.