Dynasty Analysis
It’s time to look at your stocks and see which net assets are worth keeping or buying and which ones need to be liquidated. I wish everyone the best of luck and may this be the beginning of your quest for the championship!
Josh Allen put on one of his best performances of the season just a week after suffering a concussion against the New England Patriots. He didn’t set the world on fire, but he was more than competent in leading his team to victory. He threw for a season-high 71.88% completion rate and the only two scores for the Bills against the number six passing defense in the league. Allen has also rushed for three touchdowns this season and is averaging 31.6 yards-per-game, down from 52.6 in 2018. That said, his rushing production thrusts him into fantasy relevancy. He was the QB12 in Week 5 and is QB16 on the season after the bye week. Allen is a fringe top 12 quarterback rest of season and has even higher upside based on matchups. He gets the Dolphins in Week 7 and that means you want Josh Allen in your lineup.
With no blockbuster waiver-wire targets hitting the scene this week, it should be in the best interest of most redraft team owners to continue to save their waiver wire position or FAAB budget for when one does.But with that being said, it is still crucial to constantly be working the free-agent market to find the players that could lead to value and wins down the road.Here are your Week 7 “In the Scope” candidates that could soon be the top waiver claims of tomorrow.
0 – Games remaining on Jarran Reed’s six-game suspension. Expect Reed to be a top tier DT as early as next week. Poona Ford played 84% of snaps against Cleveland. That snap share will go down.
This series will attempt to bring clarity to the goings-on both on and off the field within each NFL Division so that dynasty owners can make the important roster decisions during the NFL season to help them build toward their championships. Our writers will be grinding the tape and keeping up with the media buzz surrounding players, coaches, and front office decision making so that they can keep you equipped with the “nuggets” you need to succeed.
6 – Total tackles by Najee Goode. Goode’s stat line included 1.0 sack and 1 PD. Goode played 95% of snaps and has fully replaced third-round rookie Quincy Williams. Williams looked foolish last week trying to tackle Christian McCafferty and has since been benched.
Auden Tate has become a consistent part of the Bengals offense through six weeks, an offense that has spent an average of 38 minutes and 47 seconds trailing per game. If this trend continues, and the Bengals have shown nothing to say that it won’t, Andy Dalton will be passing the ball a lot. The Bengals have averaged 40.5 passing attempts per game and since Week 2, an average of 8.5 targets per game have headed Auden Tate’s way. Their upcoming opponents and their once feared defenses have been middle of the pack this season when it comes to allowing fantasy points to wide receivers (JAX 15th and LAR 21st in points allowed to WRs in 2019).
If you follow my Twitter — which you should — you might know some of the myths/realities that I’m going to discuss in this article. If that’s the case, great! You can get my more in-depth opinions on some of these takes. If not, well, why aren’t you following me? Kidding aside, feel free to …
Myth vs Reality #5 Read More »
Kirk Cousins (MIN) vs. Lions, 26.6% owned
All of a sudden, the Vikings have opened up their offense to include far more passing. Cousins has exceeded 300 passing yards in each of the last two weeks. In Week 6 against the Eagles, star receiver Stefon Diggs finally got going, breaking out for seven receptions, 167 yards, and three receiving touchdowns. Cousins also continued his chemistry with his other great receiver Adam Thielen, connecting for six receptions, 57 yards, and a touchdown. For the season, Cousins has nine passing touchdowns compared to just three interceptions, making him a reliable and relatively safe quarterback. To further advocate for Cousins, his Week 8 and Week 9 matchups are against the Redskins and Chiefs, respectively, so this could be a three-week run for Cousins. Given the poor state of streamers in Week 7, Cousins will likely be ranked as a borderline QB1 in a relatively neutral matchup against the Lions.
Week 7 sees some heavy offensive firepower on a break as the Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers all get their byes this week. Poor quarterback play seemed to be a theme this week. Thankfully, there were few injuries to contend with and our waiver wire recommendations are largely free of injury-related suggested pickups. A quick note before we get to this week’s article. If your waiver wire has a number of backup running backs available make sure you put a bid in on them. Running backs (and quarterbacks) are only play away from a starting job, unlike wide receivers.
The Colts started this season with one of the messiest depth charts at DE. Jabaal Sheard, Justin Houston, Al-Quaddin Muhammad, Kemoko Turay, and Ben Banogu. Sheard missed the first four games of the season. Back to full strength in Week 5 and Turay broke his ankle and will miss the remainder of the season. It’s a tough break for the second-round sophomore. Sheard will be a UFA following the season. If he doesn’t resign look for Houston, Turay, and Banogu to headline this group next season.
Welcome to part two of my weekly publication! As always, part one of this publication is my weekly picks against the spread, with a deep dive into three picks that I feel will provide a nice payout to bettors. In part two, I’ll be looking at three player props that I feel have a strong chance of paying out. This article will run the gamut and will include bets such as ‘passing yard totals’, ‘first player to score’, and even ‘total tackles’ for those who love defense. Betting lines were provided by DraftKings Sportsbook. Deposit $20 into DraftKings today and receive not only a FREE DFF Membership but also $10 in extra DraftKings credit! It’s a no brainer! With that, let’s get started!
Rookie Fever welcomes @FL2DrinkMinimum from Superflexible and Fantasy Football Breakdown to breakdown Week 5’s top 12 but more importantly predict some NFL rookies that will make the Week 6 top 12 list. Swags and Fanaro, of course, play along and keep score. Can anyone stop the Feverish Fanaro when it comes to picking who will …
Rookie Fever Episode 65 – Time to Get Super Flexible with FL2DrinkMinimum Read More »
Don’t miss Top 12 Tuesdays with Swags! This week he gives you a quick recap of the Top 12 Rookies from week 5. And Week 5 prediction results are in! Damion Willis WR48 7.8 PTs, 4 for 4 38 yards Terry Mclaurin WR45 8.1 PTs, 7 targets brings in 3 for 51 yards Olabisi Johnson …
Rookie Fever Episode 64 – Top 12 Tuesday Week 5…Rotten Low Hanging Fruit Read More »
Each week I recap the top performances by this year’s rookie defenders. Some are well-known names and others come out of nowhere. Rookies are highly coveted in the dynasty community, but their value can be very volatile at times. In this series each week, we’ll look at their numbers and what impact they have. I am also including their snap counts and percentage of snaps. These snap counts can tell us a lot about how much a player is being used and the opportunities they have to make plays. I like to target rookies that play 80% plus of the team’s defensive snaps. Let’s jump right into this week’s group.
DJ Moore (WR – CAR)
The second-year WR out of Maryland was the second leading receiver on Panthers in Weeks 4 and 5. Note how I didn’t say WR, as RB Christain McCaffery has led the team in targets, catches, yards and touchdowns the past two weeks. However, on the year, Moore has been the most productive pass-catcher on the Panthers this season, leading the team with 352 yards, good for WR29 on the year prior to Monday Night Football. Moore is a solid WR2/3 option moving forward.
Welcome to Episode 96 of the @DynastyTradesHQ Podcast! “Tank You …
DynastyTradesHQ Podcast Episode 96: Tank You Very Much! Read More »
Dede Westbrook ($16) vs. New Orleans – (Cash and GPP).
On Yahoo this week, Westbrook represents the receiver I project as the highest point per dollar value play on the slate. First, I absolutely love D.J. Chark and have been on him nearly every week so far, but against New Orleans, I’m afraid he gets the Marshon Lattimore treatment. And Lattimore looks back to his old self after some early season concerns, limiting Amari Cooper to five catches for 48 yards in Week 4, and completely shutting out Tampa Bay’s Mike Evans on Sunday. While Lattimore is busy following Chark around, Jacksonville should find success exploiting the Saints’ weakness when it comes to slot receivers. Westbrook is running 78.3% of his routes out of the slot according to PlayerProfiler, and this usage profiles similarly to players like Tyler Lockett (61.7% of routes out of the slot) and Cooper Kupp (76.2% of routes out of the slot). In meetings with New Orleans earlier this season, Kupp posted 5 catches for 120 yards in Week 2 and Lockett followed up with 11 catches for 154 yards and a touchdown in Week 3. Even Tampa Bay’s WR2, Chris Godwin, runs a little over 50% of his routes out of the slot on the year, and he torched New Orleans for 125 yards and two touchdowns on seven receptions last week. At just $16, Westbrook is an absolute steal given his usage, role, and highly appealing matchup.
Geronimo Allison (WR-GB)
It’s very clear that Allison is the team’s third-best option when Adams and MVS are both healthy, but if he finds a way to produce before Adams can come back from injury you’ll want to act fast in selling him. He’s only commanding an 11% target share and 11% of the team’s air yards, even with the increased opportunity the last couple games. Those figures are just not something you can reliably start any given week, as 11% of 35 passes is just three targets.
3 – IDP left the game with an injury. Xavier Williams (ankle) left after 10 snaps. Anthony Hitchens (groin) left after 11 snaps. Chris Jones (groin) left after 38 snaps. Ben Nieman replaced Hitchens and played every down. Derrick Nnadi (77%) saw a substantial increase in snaps with both Jones and Williams out. Third-round rookie Khalen Saunders played his first 33 defensive snaps of the season.
Jimmy G is starting to look like the guy the 49ers brought in from the Patriots, who just found ways to win games. You might not think he’s showing flashy numbers on the fantasy stat sheets, but his play is approaching what we believe he can be. You can’t argue the fact that he just wins games! He’s QB7 in completion percentage, at 69%, which is even better than the end of season explosion upon his arrival in Santa Clara. Currently a QB2 in fantasy production, the arrow is pointing up as he continues to build back up his time under center, and his rapport with a relatively inexperienced WR corps. He’s clutch! But can he really be a QB1? I feel he is a high-end QB2, and that is what he is.
Providing analysis on three bets that have the best chance at netting you a nice payday. Whether it be due to matchups, injuries, or other factors, these are the three bets I feel the most confident in placing.
Welcome to the DFS Shark Tank podcast, part of Dynasty …
Matt Ryan ($6,400)
According to FantasyData.com, opposing quarterbacks are averaging 24.82 DraftKings points per game against the Cardinals (fourth-most). They also rank seventh-worst in passing yards allowed at nearly 270 yards per game and have already surrendered a dozen touchdowns through the air in the first five games (only the Redskins with 13 are worse). On the flip side, Matt Ryan is averaging over 44 pass attempts per game, has multiple touchdowns in all but one game, and has yet to throw for less than 304 yards in a single week. This matchup is where the rubber meets the road and we roll with the veteran signal-caller carrying his team’s offense.
This series will attempt to bring clarity to the goings-on both on and off the field within each NFL Division so that dynasty owners can make the important roster decisions during the NFL season to help them build toward their championships. Our writers will be grinding the tape and keeping up with the media buzz surrounding players, coaches and front office decision making so that they can keep you equipped with the “nuggets” you need to succeed.