Why sophomores?
While most look towards the incoming rookie classes, I like to look at players that are already showing signs of production in the league. We’ve all had those rookies that didn’t pan out, and maybe you cut bait on them a little early, only to see them become a valuable asset later on. This series will attempt to identify those players.
2019 was a bit of an anomalous year when it comes to rookie production, especially from the WR position. We saw a WR2* finish from AJ Brown, WR3* efforts from Terry McLaurin and DK Metcalf. We also saw strong showings from Deebo Samuel and Hollywood Brown. Historically speaking rookie wide receivers tend to disappoint in year one before breaking out in year two. One of my go-to strategies in dynasty leagues is to stay away from the hype of the rookie WRs in an attempt to save me from the shame of taking another Corey Davis with the 1.03 pick (true story), and instead look for those going into their sophomore campaign that might have slipped under the radar.
2019’s sophomore breakouts included the DJ’s,(Moore and Chark), Courtland Sutton, Michael Gallup, Christian Kirk and Zach Pascal (Pascal didn’t play a game in 2017 so I’m considering him a sophomore). All these players finished their rookie campaigns with less than 60/800/6 as their stat lines and finished their sophomore years achieving at least one of these thresholds. All these receivers sported strong seasons ranging from WR2 to strong flex plays.
So how do we identify who to target?
Target share is king
Of the stated sophomore breakouts only Chark had a target share under 14%. It always catches my eye when a WR demands more than 10% of their team’s targets as a rookie. We also want to keep an eye on red zone target share. We all want the TDs, so again we’re looking for those who demanded 10% or more of the red zone target share.
Breakout age (BOA) matters
Breakout age is the age a player in college accounted for more than 20% of the team’s yards and TDs. Of the stated breakouts, only Gallup had a BOA over 20 at 20.5; it is not the be-all and end-all, but more of an important checkmark. Only two of the WR1* ranked players in 2019 had a BOA over 20 (Micheal Thomas 21.5, Cooper Kupp 20.2, Julian Edelman N/A)
Draft Capital
To be frank, NFL teams are stubborn. If they use a high pick on a player, they are going to try everything to justify that pick. Moore was taken in the first round. Chark, Sutton, and Kirk all went as second-rounders, with Gallup going in the third round. The other end of this spectrum is interesting as well, however. Undrafted rookies like Pascal stand out because not a single team took a chance on them in the draft and yet they find their way onto the field.
These guys are important.
The team has no pressure to play these guys unlike the high capital picks, so when these guys are seeing playing time and more importantly, targets, it is most likely because they are good.
So now that we figured out how we are going to identify, who are our 2020 sophomore WR targets?
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N’Keal Harry, New England Patriots
The only question mark here is Tom Brady, and in my opinion, it’s a minor one. Harry was the second WR off the board in 2019’s NFL Draft, sporting a crisp BOA of 18.7 (95th percentile), a target share of 9.7%, and a red zone target share of 16.7%. The low target share is also not a big concern in my opinion due to Brady’s known distrust with young WRs. Harry missed the first ten weeks of the season and we really didn’t see all that much out of him in the last seven weeks. However, what we did see was the reason he was taken in the first round. A 6’2”, 228lbs. WR running a 4.53-sec. 40-yard dash. That equates to a 109.8 weight-adjusted speed score placing N’Keal in the 90th percentile. I expect a big Sophomore year from Harry.
Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers
Antonio Brown Jr. anyone? This kid just looked good with the likes of Duck Hodges and Mason Rudolph “throwing” to him. An early third-round pick with a slightly higher BOA at 20.8, Johnson came in his rookie year and earned an 18.9% target share. That’s big. Now Pittsburgh didn’t throw nearly as much in 2019 as they did in 2018 without Ben Roethlisberger under center, but with all signs pointing to Roethlisberger’s return in 2020, I see Diontae being a solid flex play with WR2 upside across from Juju Smith-Schuster.
Preston Williams, Miami Dolphins
This kid has all the things I’m looking for. A highly recruited kid by Tennessee, he transferred to Colorado State after his sophomore season. After sitting for a year, this kid exploded in 2018 but went undrafted. It didn’t matter, Williams came in and demanded 21.4% of the Dolphin’s targets and 37% of the red zone targets. I’m not worried about the 21.4 BOA due to him having to miss a year because of NCAA eligibility rules, and him being a top recruit out of high school. Coming off an ACL he might be a little slow out of the gate, but the future looks bright for Preston.
Thank you for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter @dushanes_ if you would like to discuss anything about football!
*WR rankings based on 0.5 PPR scoring format.
All data gathered from PlayerProfiler.com
