This article is an entirely different type of piece from my usual content. Here, we’re just going to focus on a single player: Rashaad Penny. He’s been a polarizing prospect from the beginning and has been the subject of intense dynasty debate before he even entered the NFL.
The Beginning
Coming into the 2018 NFL Draft season, San Diego State’s Rashaad Penny was one of many running back prospects that had dynasty owners intrigued. Of course, Saquon Barkley led the class as the top running back, but many were excited about Sony Michel, Nick Chubb, Derrius Guice, Kerryon Johnson, and Ronald Jones. Before the draft occurred, most expected Guice, Chubb, or Michel to be the second running back selected after Barkley. However, after Barkley went second overall to the Giants, Penny was the next running back taken with the 27th overall selection to the Seahawks. Considering that Chubb and Guice fell to the second round and Michel went to the notoriously nebulous Patriots’ backfield, Penny suddenly rose into consideration for the 1.02 selection in rookie drafts.
Penny as a Rookie
Part of the reason that Penny was so hyped was the lack of competition in the Seahawks’ backfield. In 2017, the Seahawks went through numerous running backs, four of which remained on the 2018 roster: Mike Davis, Chris Carson, J.D. McKissic, and C.J. Prosise. Both McKissic and Prosise suffered significant injuries. They totaled just four carries between them in 2018. That just left Carson and Davis as competition for Penny, the first-round pick. Carson had started a couple of games in 2017 before breaking his leg. Most barely expected Carson to be ready to open the 2018 season, let alone earn significant carries. Davis played as the starter at the end of 2017, but the Seahawks planned to return him to a reserve role in 2018.
However, as most dynasty owners know, none of those expectations came to pass. Carson dominated backfield touches, garnering 247 carries. Davis played as the third-down back, leading the backfield in targets and receptions while finishing second in carries with 112. Finally, despite playing 14 of the 16 games, Penny had just 85 carries. Perhaps most concerning was Penny’s lack of receiving work. He was highly touted as a receiving specialist coming out of college but had only nine receptions on 12 targets in 2018.
Overall, while Penny at least saw the field, his rookie-year output for a first-round running back has to be considered an abject failure.
Penny in 2019
Even though Penny flopped in 2018, most dynasty owners had high hopes for him coming into 2019. Once again, Carson struggled with injuries throughout the offseason. Despite head coach Pete Carroll’s constant support of Carson, the red flags surrounding Carson led many to believe Penny could at least achieve a timeshare. Carson then suffered from a fumbling problem early in 2019, opening the door for Penny to potentially gain carries. However, throughout the first 10 weeks, Penny struggled with a hamstring issue, seemed out of shape, and failed to win any trust from Carroll. He played just seven of the 10 games and totaled only 36 carries in that period. In contrast, Carson had 15 or more carries in every one of those games.
However, coming out of the Seahawks’ Week 11 bye, everything changed. In week 12, Carson fumbled once again, opening the door once again for Penny. In that same game, Penny erupted for 129 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries, while Carson had just eight carries for 26 yards. This created a committee between Penny and Carson. I believe that in Week 13, we saw what Carroll had finally intended all along. Penny received 15 carries for 74 yards and added four receptions on five targets for 33 yards, scoring on both the ground and through the air. However, Carson got 23 carries for 102 yards and also scored a rushing touchdown. He had just one reception for seven yards, though. Penny seemed to become the third-down back in this contest, out-targeting and outproducing Carson through the air, even though Carson had more carries. This split workload was incredibly successful, and the Seahawks won both of those contests.
Unfortunately, in Week 14 everything came crashing down. At the beginning of the game, Penny suffered a torn ACL. After Penny’s injury, Carson resumed workhorse duties, including a 24 carry, 133 yards outburst in Week 15. However, in Week 16, Carson suffered from a severe hip injury. At the time, some said Carson would also struggle to recover in time for the 2020 season. The Seahawks used rookie sixth-round pick Travis Homer and signed Marshawn Lynch off the street for the rest of the season. Neither was particularly effective, and I don’t expect either player to be a significant part of their 2020 plans, although Homer could return in a reserve role.
The Future
After the torn ACL, the Seahawks said that Penny’s injury was even worse than a normal ACL tear and that he would have to race to be ready for the start of the 2020 season. Since the end of the 2019 season, Carson and the Seahawks have said that he will not require offseason surgery and that he should be entirely healthy for camp in June. Therefore, it seems pretty clear that Carson will be the 2020 starter and workhorse back, at least until Penny gets up to speed.
As for Penny’s future value, I assume the Seahawks will need to bring in another running back of some significance to replace Penny for the start of 2020. His value is entirely dependent on what kind of player that is. I expect the Seahawks to sign a depth player, such as Carlos Hyde, Lamar Miller, or a cap casualty from another team, such as Jerick McKinnon or Tevin Coleman. They could also bring in a pure receiving back to take some of the receiving work from Carson. J.D. McKissic, Ty Montgomery, or Chris Thompson could fill that role. If they do one of those things, Penny will maintain most of his dynasty value, as either type of new addition will not be a long-term threat to his touches.
However, there are two scary possibilities for Penny. While I can’t imagine the Seahawks using a first-round pick on a running back, they do own the 59th and 64th overall selections. At that point in the draft, rookie running backs such as Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Cam Akers could still be on the board. Edwards-Helaire, in particular, would overlap with Penny’s skill set and would complement Carson very well. He would bring a dynamic element to the receiving game and allow the Seahawks to deploy a 1-2 punch with Carson as the grinder and Edwards-Helaire as the third-down and change of pace back. Using a second-round pick on a running back would signal the end of Penny’s dynasty value.
The Seahawks could also sign a higher-end free agent. I can’t see them spending big on Melvin Gordon or Derrick Henry, and Jordan Howard is a poor compliment to Carson. However, Kareem Hunt would be an exciting signing. Similar to Edwards-Helaire, Hunt provides a receiving element to the offense, which he excelled in 2019 with the Browns as a complement to Nick Chubb. If the Seahawks make this type of investment in free agency, Penny’s dynasty value will evaporate.
In summary, Penny is a risky dynasty asset right now. I think that the Seahawks will give him another chance and sign a depth or complementary piece. However, there is no denying the risk of investing in Penny. I would value him at around a mid-second round rookie pick, but I couldn’t blame any dynasty owners for wanting to move on.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Justin. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
