Intro
Here, we’re going to look at landing spots. Specifically, what are the best landing spots for a running back in the 2020 NFL Draft or perhaps for a free agent running back? I’ll be focusing on each team’s current running backs, cap space, and NFL Draft capital. Let’s jump into it.
#5: Atlanta Falcons
Unlike the other teams that will come later, the Falcons have a definite incumbent starting running back in Devonta Freeman. Freeman has a track record of both real-life and fantasy success. He performed poorly as a runner in 2019, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry for a total of only 656 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. However, he added 59 receptions for 410 yards and four receiving touchdowns. Freeman is due $9.5 million in 2020 and would carry $6 million in dead money if cut. Therefore, the Falcons would save just $3.5 million against the cap by cutting Freeman before 2020. Freeman does turn 28 in March, but I believe that he has one year of relevance remaining and will be a Falcon in 2020.
Since the Falcons are already paying $9.5 million to Freeman, they are not a candidate to spend big at running back in free agency. They also have both 2018 fourth-round pick Ito Smith and 2019 fifth-round pick Qadree Ollison on their roster. However, neither Smith nor Ollison is a real candidate to take significant carries, let alone the starting job. At the very least, I expect the Falcons to bring in a running back in the draft to supersede Smith and Ollison as Freeman’s back up to open the season.
The Falcons have the 16th, 47th, 55th, and 78th overall picks in the first three rounds of the 2020 NFL Draft. While I can’t see the Falcons spending a first-round pick at running back, I think they will use either the 47th or 55th overall selection on a running back. Players like Jonathan Taylor, J.K. Dobbins, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Cam Akers could still be on the board at that stage of the NFL Draft. Any of those players would instantly push Freeman for carries and would all be considered the long-term replacement for him.
Therefore, while a drafted running back would not become an immediate workhorse in Atlanta, they would still join a high-powered Matt Ryan-led offense. In 2021, Freeman will almost certainly be a cap casualty, and the new running back will become the starter, gaining significant dynasty value.
#4: Miami Dolphins
Some might question the Dolphins’ place on this list. While it’s true that the Dolphins are not a high-powered offense, they have a massive hole at the running back position. Ryan Fitzpatrick led the team in rushing with just 243 yards. Their next two leading rushers, Mark Walton and Kenyan Drake, are no longer with the organization. The top running backs on the roster are Kalen Ballage, Patrick Laird, and Myles Gaskin. All three are uninspiring and performed terribly in 2019. Laird has a bit of skill as a pass-catcher, but that’s about the only plus from this trio.
Therefore, the Dolphins going into 2020 remind me strongly of the Raiders going into 2019. Each team had nothing at running back. The Raiders were linked continuously to Josh Jacobs and eventually used a first-round pick to select him. The Dolphins have six picks in the first three rounds. I expect them to use their fifth overall selection on a quarterback, but I firmly believe they will select a running back with the 18th or 26th overall pick. D’Andre Swift is the consensus top running back in the class, and the player I have seen mocked to the Dolphins in many mock drafts. With a new rookie quarterback, Swift, and then additional draft capital to add to the offensive line, the Dolphins could be a strong offensive unit going forward.
Even though I expect the Dolphins to add a running back in the draft, they also have about $93 million in cap space for 2020. This space will allow the Dolphins to sign a premier free agent such as Melvin Gordon and then use even more of their draft picks on the defensive or offensive line. Either way, the Dolphins are an exciting landing spot because whoever comes in will be an immediate workhorse running back with no real competition.
#3: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Unlike the Dolphins, the remaining teams listed are all high-powered offenses. The Bucs have a glaring need at running back. In 2019, they used a three-headed monster of Peyton Barber, Ronald Jones, and Dare Ogunbowale. Jones and Barber split the early-down work almost equally, although Jones was far more effective. Ogunbowale took third-down work, leading the running backs in receptions.
Going into 2020, Barber is an unrestricted free agent. I do not expect the Bucs to retain him, as he has not performed well in their offense. That leaves Jones and Ogunbowale. While both players are satisfactory, I would argue that the Bucs need a real three-down workhorse that can be a weapon in both the rushing and receiving game. Considering that Jameis Winston threw 626 passes in 2019 for over 5000 passing yards, the Bucs could use a bit more balance in the offense.
The Bucs have almost $85 million in cap space for 2020, plenty to absorb a free agent running back. I think that they will sign a marquee free agent or trade for David Johnson. Johnson has succeeded in a Bruce Arians’ offense before, and I could see the Bucs adding him to their roster. If they can’t swing a deal for Johnson, Melvin Gordon would be a perfect fit in Tampa Bay, as he could absorb a large number of carries. Signing Gordon would reduce the pressure on Winston and could allow him to reduce his turnovers in 2020.
Considering that the Bucs spent a 2018 second-round pick on Jones, I do not expect them to invest their first or second-rounder on a running back. If they just add a depth free agent or later pick, Jones will start in 2020, but I think that would be a big mistake for the Bucs. Hopefully, they finally decide to address running back and bring in a replacement for Jones.
#2: Houston Texans
The Texans and their running back situation have been an enigma for dynasty players for many years. Before the 2016 season, they signed Lamar Miller to a four-year contract to be their starting running back. Miller was a workhorse back from 2016-2018, taking 268, 238, and 210 carries in those three seasons. However, before the 2018 season, there were rumblings that the Texans should replace Miller as their starter. They didn’t, but those rumors returned in 2019. Once again, they intended to go into 2019 with Miller as their starter, sharing time with trade acquisition Duke Johnson. Unfortunately, Miller tore his ACL, leading the Texans to sign Carlos Hyde. The Texans gave Hyde 245 carries, essentially sliding him directly into Miller’s role. Johnson got just 83 carries and only 44 receptions, a typical third-down profile.
Going into 2020, the Texans will finally have to address the running back position. Both Miller and Hyde are unrestricted free agents. Johnson is due $4.1 million, although the Texans can cut him for no dead cap. I expect Johnson to remain in Houston, but there is a massive hole for the Miller/Hyde role. I don’t expect either Miller or Hyde to return to Houston, so the Texans must add a running back in either free agency or the NFL Draft. Unfortunately, the Texans only have the 57th overall pick in the first three rounds. I can’t see them using that pick on a running back, considering that they need help on defense.
Therefore, the Texans will likely need to turn to free agency to fill the running back position. They have approximately $56 million in 2020 cap space, so they certainly can add a running back. If the Titans decide not to retain Derrick Henry, he would be a perfect fit in the Texans’ offense. They need a two-down grinder to pair with Johnson, and Henry could do far more than Miller and Hyde have offered. Melvin Gordon would also fit well in Houston, as he’s formed a duo with Austin Ekeler in the past. No matter who it is, Deshaun Watson will ensure that the Texans are a potent offense, so the starting running back in Houston will have value. Considering that Miller and Hyde were fantasy viable over the last four years, a high-profile running back could easily be an RB1 in Houston.
#1: Kansas City Chiefs
There’s no competition for the top spot. We saw what Kareem Hunt was doing in 2018 before his off-the-field issues. After the Chiefs cut Hunt, Damien Williams stepped in and also flourished, especially in the 2018 and 2019 playoff runs. While the Chiefs attempted to use a committee of Damien Williams, LeSean McCoy, Darrel Williams, and Darwin Thompson in 2019, eventually they realized that Damien was by far their most talented running back. During the playoffs, he once again became a workhorse, relegating McCoy and Thompson to spot duty.
Similar to some of the other destinations, I do not believe that the Chiefs are a lock to bring in a pricey free agent or to draft a running back early. The Chiefs only have $16 million in cap space, so they almost certainly will not spend big money at the running back position in free agency. Therefore, the Chiefs would have to bring in their replacement for Damien Williams in the NFL Draft. The Chiefs have the 32nd, 63rd, and 96th overall picks in the first three rounds. If they select a running back in the first or second round, that player will be an immediate starter, relegating Damien Williams to a change-of-pace role. A third-round running back could create an ugly committee, although hopefully, the Chiefs go with whoever is the most talented as a workhorse back. Either way, Damien Williams is far from an entrenched starter, so the opening for a superstar fantasy running back is entirely there in Kansas City.
Overall, the opportunity to work in an offense led by Patrick Mahomes and with a plethora of offensive weapons makes the Chiefs the top destination for running backs in 2020.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Justin. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
