I am back again with another edition of Buy/Sell/Hold and this time I am looking at the running back position. The players in this article are three guys that I have developed a strong bias towards the last couple of weeks while digging through film and data.
Buy: Anthony McFarland
When a 4-star running back comes into college with 20+ offers, he definitely does not go unnoticed, but due to the laughing stock that was this Maryland football team in 2019, Anthony McFarland seems to be forgotten. McFarland’s data does not pop off the page as he only had two years of experience, but while watching the film he looks to be one of the best backs in this class.
[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PgmfCZzVedI[/embedyt]
The film above is the Maryland vs Ohio State game in 2018. Maryland, who were much better in 2018, forced the game to double overtime with the help of McFarland’s stat line of 21 rushes, 298 yards, and 2 touchdowns. McFarland’s big-play ability is highlighted every time he touches the ball in this game. With amazing burst out of the backfield and long speed capability, it is almost too good to be true.
The only knock on McFarland is going to be his size. He is listed at 5′ 8″ and 193 pounds at playerprofiler.com which is significantly undersized for an NFL back, but with the talent he has, I am a truther that he can get it done. We all know he can play, but some team needs to invest in him to provide fantasy value. I am a full believer in his ability at the next level.
Sell: Ke’Shawn Vaughn
Ke’Shawn Vaughn, a fifth-year senior has me confused as to what people see in him, in terms of becoming an NFL back. Vaughn has a solid production profile as he had two seasons of over 1,000 rushing yards and one season of over 25 receptions. His college dominator rating, which is an overall grade of production, is in the 90th percentile but he only held a 5.2 yards per carry average in his career which puts him in the 35th percentile. I am on team “Sell” at this moment due to this. To me, he is a little overvalued in terms of what people think he is capable at the next level but teams are not looking to draft overall “good” running backs. They want something to pop or flash about them and Vaughn just does not have that.
NFL teams love backs who can catch the ball and Vaughn was in the 73rd percentile of target share, but that number is extremely deceiving. Vaughn was targeted 38 times last year and caught 28 of those, but he only turned that into 161 yards netting a 5.75 yards per catch which is not what NFL scouts are looking for. The NFL Combine is going to be huge for this back as he will need to build a fantastic portfolio to be considered as a Day 2 pick, but ultimately I think he will get taken Day 3. Not to mention, he is almost 23 years old which does not give NFL teams an incentive to draft a running back with a shorter shelf life.
Hold: Zack Moss
I am just going to come right out and say that Zack Moss is confusing to me. Some analysts have him ranked as a top 3 guy and some have him all the way in double digits and I do not know what to do with him. In 2017, Zack Moss took off, as it was his stated breakout year per playerprofiler.com, and from 2017 to 2019 he was a production machine. Three straight years of double-digit touchdowns and 1,000 yards rushing is nothing short of impressive, but I think the reason people are confused is the fact that Moss wasn’t really known until this year, as Utah placed themselves on the map in the college football landscape. A college dominator in the 85th percentile, yards per carry in the 73rd percentile, and a college target share in the 68th percentile is what makes the analytical freaks drool, and his tape does not disappoint either.
[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7ZGTrp3tQU[/embedyt]
Play after play he shows why he can produce at the next level, so I am placing him in the hold category until the draft. If he gets the keys to the backfield for a running back needy team, I am all aboard.
Thank you for reading! You can follow me on twitter @kacer_lukas and let me know if there is any other players you want to see next!
