In this piece, I’ll walk you through three “fake-outs.” These are players that broke out or had strong seasons in 2019 that I do not expect to maintain that level of performance going forward. Therefore, you could call each of these guys a dynasty “sell-high.”
D.J. Chark (WR – JAX)
I feel like I’m picking on Chark since I’ve already downplayed his long-term upside in a previous article found here. However, I think Chark is the definition of a “fake-out.” He burst onto the scene at the start of 2019 after being a complete bust in 2018. Here is a side by side comparison of Chark’s 2018 and 2019 numbers.
Chark majorly improved in 2019, becoming the focal point of the Jaguars’ offense. He led the team in targets and finished second in receptions behind Leonard Fournette. However, there is one primary concern with Chark and the Jaguars’ passing game as a whole: the Jaguars scored three rushing touchdowns in all of 2019. No other team scored less than six, and 25 of the 32 teams scored double-digit rushing touchdowns. Compare that to the Jaguars 24 passing touchdowns, and you can see a significant regression possibility in 2020. Considering that the Jaguars have a workhorse running back in Fournette, there is no way they will only score three rushing touchdowns in 2020. In fact, given that Fournette carried the ball 265 times for 1152 yards, there is a chance he alone could have double-digit touchdowns in 2020. Additionally, Gardner Minshew had 67 carries for 344 yards but failed to score on the ground. Assuming Minshew is the starter, he will likely command at least a couple of rushing scores in 2020.
As discussed in my previous work, there is no way that the Jaguars are satisfied with their receiving weapons for 2020. Keelan Cole is a free agent who I don’t expect the Jaguars to re-sign, and Chris Conley is just a middling WR3 who can be cut before 2020 for a minimal dead cap hit. Dede Westbrook and Chark are a decent 1-2 punch, but the Jaguars need to acquire a real number one receiver or a heavily targeted tight end. Westbrook was ineffective in 2019, achieving 66 receptions on 101 targets but just 660 yards. I strongly suspect the Jaguars will turn to the NFL Draft to select a receiver. With their ninth overall pick, I think they will choose either Ceedee Lamb or Jerry Jeudy, adding a real alpha receiver to their offense. Additionally, I expect the Jaguars to improve on their non-existent tight end room in free agency to supplement promising 2019 rookie Josh Oliver. Greg Olsen and Eric Ebron are the best tight ends likely to hit free agency, and either would greatly benefit the Jaguars.
Overall, the point is that Chark was a number one receiver by accident. The Jaguars drastically underperformed on the ground, despite wanting to run the ball. Therefore, I expect Chark to bust in 2020. I would suggest getting out from Chark shares now before free agency and the NFL Draft cause his stock to drop even further. If I could get the 1.06 in a one QB league, I’d move on from Chark. If that isn’t possible, Michael Gallup, Tyler Boyd, and Christian Kirk are three players I prefer to Chark that might have a lower value than he in some leagues. I’d consider pivoting to one of those guys and getting a late pick on top of it.
Darren Waller (TE – LVR)
Waller had a breakout season from out of nowhere in 2019. The Baltimore Ravens drafted Waller in the sixth round back in the 2015 NFL Draft. He totaled just 103 yards and two touchdowns in his two seasons in Baltimore. The NFL then suspended him for the entire 2017 season for violating the substance-abuse policy. This incident eventually led to his release from the Ravens after which the Raiders signed him to their practice squad. Near the end of 2018, the Raiders promoted Waller to the active roster to backup then-starter Jared Cook. After Cook signed with the Saints in free agency before the 2019 season, the Raiders then decided to make Waller their starter at tight end.
Waller rewarded that commitment from the Raiders by putting up 90 receptions on 117 targets for 1145 yards and three receiving touchdowns. He led the team in receptions, yards, and targets by significant margins. Considering that he led the team in all other receiving categories, some might say his low total of three touchdowns leaves room for Waller to grow in 2020.
While that argument is legitimate, I would take a look at some of the context surrounding Waller’s rise in 2019. First, the Raiders planned to have Antonio Brown as their alpha receiver and number one target in their offense. He was released just before the season, leaving the Raiders no opportunity to replace his services. The only other significant receiving options in the Raiders’ offense were Tyrell Williams, Hunter Renfrow, and their assortment of running backs.
Both Williams and Renfrow missed time in 2019. Williams suffered from plantar fasciitis for the majority of the season, starting in Week 5, forcing him to miss two games. He also was limited in virtually all of the remaining games as plantar fasciitis can flare up without warning. The Raiders stated that his foot was still bothering him even after the season. Renfrow suffered rib and lung injuries in Week 12 that sidelined him for three games. In the three games Renfrow missed, Waller averaged seven receptions for 98 yards, far exceeding his average for the rest of the season. Both Williams and Renfrow are under contract for 2020 and should both return to their roles as a deep threat and slot receiver if healthy.
The Raiders’ running backs totaled 98 receptions making up a significant portion of the Raiders’ passing offense. The Raiders just signed pass-catching back Jalen Richard to an extension and also spent a 2019 first-round pick on Josh Jacobs. Jacobs was well-known for his pass-catching coming out of Alabama but suffered from a shoulder injury in 2019. This injury may have reduced his impact in the receiving game. Either way, it seems clear that the Raiders’ running backs will continue to be involved in the passing game in 2020 and could even have a more significant role.
Overall, all of the Raiders’ relevant 2019 weapons will return for 2020. However, they will undoubtedly add a number one receiver to their team. Williams is better suited as a number two option, and Renfrow is a reliable slot option. If they had Brown, their offensive weapons would have been some of the best in the NFL. The Raiders seem interested in free-agent receiver AJ Green, and their $51 million in cap space will allow them to either sign him or another free-agent option. Also, since it’s the Raiders, I would not put it past them to pull off a high-profile trade for a star wide receiver, such as Odell Beckham, Jr. or Stefon Diggs. Therefore, I expect the Raiders in 2020 to have the offense they intended for 2019. Given the increase in weapons, Waller will have his targets reduced and should be the secondary target in the offense rather than the first option. He also broke out late in his career and will turn 28 in September. I’d far prefer players like Austin Hooper, Hunter Henry, and Noah Fant to Waller. In some leagues, I think you can get something on top of those guys for him. I would do that without hesitation and move on from Waller.
Raheem Mostert (RB – SF)
This recommendation is as much about Mostert as it is about the fact that we simply cannot trust Kyle Shanahan and his running back rotation. Throughout 2019, Shanahan used Mostert, Tevin Coleman, and Matt Breida as the leaders of a committee backfield. Additionally, he also mixed in Jeff Wilson Jr. at running back. On top of that, he used wide receiver Deebo Samuel and fullback Kyle Juszczyk for running back touches. Therefore, there was simply no predictability for the 49ers’ backfield. That is truly a shame because the 49ers’ running game was wildly successful in 2019. The 49ers ranked second in both rushing attempts and rushing yards, averaging 4.6 yards per carry as an offense.
The 49ers were a true three-headed monster with the top three players achieving the following rushing lines:
Going into 2020, Mostert, Coleman, and oft-injured Jerick McKinnon are all under contract for 2020. The 49ers can save $4.5 million in cap space by cutting McKinnon by April first, which I expect them to do. They can also save $4.9 million against the cap by cutting Coleman by the same date. Breida is a restricted free agent, and the 49ers will be able to retain his services at a reasonable price, probably lower than what they would owe Coleman or McKinnon. Even outside of the other members of the rushing attack, the top three guys received almost a dead-even split of the touches. Coleman started a majority of the games and received most of the goal-line work. Mostert received goal-line work down the stretch of the season and took the bulk of the carries in the second half. Breida seemed to end up in the doghouse near the end, but he received double-digit carries in eight of the first nine games.
So, you might be wondering, if I only expect the 49ers to retain Breida and Mostert of their current running backs, then why am I so low on Mostert for 2020? The answer is straightforward. In 2019, everyone expected a split backfield between Coleman and Breida, yet Mostert tied for the team lead in touches. Whether the 49ers sign a new free-agent running back or take one in the NFL Draft, there is always the possibility that Shanahan could give that player touches. Additionally, if the 49ers prove me wrong and retain either Coleman or McKinnon at their cap charges, they will likely be expecting them to absorb significant carries. Therefore, I find it impossible to trust Mostert in dynasty formats, and I would just like to move on from him. A late second-round rookie pick would be more than enough for me to sell Mostert.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Justin. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
