Part 1: Cleveland Browns
It’s often said that a good coach modifies his scheme to fit the talent he inherits. Coaches also lose jobs frequently because their franchise doesn’t think they’re… um… good. Other coaches lose jobs because their franchises think a different scheme is the answer. Redskins owner Dan Snyder insisted on a 4-3 defense as defensive coordinator Greg Manusky departed. Rams’ Head Coach Sean McVay replaced Wade Phillips with a defensive coordinator who will scheme up to exploit opponents’ weaknesses. These and other teams will seek out free agents and rookies who fit what they want in their schemes.
11 of 32 NFL teams are undergoing a change of defensive coordinator. This author has written articles about two of these: the Washington Redskins and Carolina Panthers. These two teams command the most attention and interest from fantasy gamers because they are in flux between 3-4 and 4-3 base defenses. A 4-3 base defense increases the fantasy value of its players, whereas a 3-4 decreases it. Most notably, 4-3 defensive ends who play on the edge are more productive than 3-4 ends caught up in the traffic of the interior offensive line.
Even without a change in alignment, scheme changes significantly affect players’ opportunities to make plays. This is true on both sides of the ball. Zone blocking or gap scheme? West coast or Air Coryell? Each player’s strengths might be better suited for one than another.
This topic is underreported for this author’s appetite. It’s literally the reason I got into writing about fantasy football. Writing about my research helps me process my findings.
Scheme for Opportunity
Two years ago, IDP gamers were thrilled to learn that Paul Guenther had taken over as the Raiders defensive coordinator. That meant that Khalil Mack would be tagged a defensive end rather than an outside linebacker. No one seemed to take any notice of impacts to other Oakland defenders. Even less mind was paid to Cincinnati’s defense, from which Guenther came. Former Lions coordinator Teryl Austin would take over the Bengals defense. Raiders’ strong safety Karl Joseph, a former first-round pick, became irrelevant. Bengals’ strong safety Shawn Williams was a free add that summer. He became 2018’s third-highest scoring defensive back in fantasy football.
Similar opportunities and pitfalls will arise in 2020. Allow me to introduce players who present values and value traps among the nine remaining teams that changed defensive coordinators. Let’s start with the Cleveland Browns. Fears of a 3-4 have been expressed in IDP circles on Twitter and podcasts. Future installments on this topic will cover the Dolphins, Texas, Titans, Cowboys, Giants, Rams, Lions, and Vikings.
Cleveland Browns Defensive Line
The Browns fired and replaced their head coach and both coordinators shortly after the 2019 season ended. They’re the only AFC team bringing in someone from outside the organization to lead their defense in 2020. Former 49ers assistant Joe Woods announced he will fit his system to his personnel as Browns defensive coordinator, maintaining a 4-3 base defense.
Woods has experience coaching 4-3-under and 3-4-under defenses. Now reinstated from suspension, Myles Garrett returns at strong-side defensive end while Sheldon Richardson executes 3-technique at defensive tackle. Larry Ogunjobi will remain a full-time nose tackle. If retained, Olivier Vernon could stand up and play weak-side defensive end.
Browns Linebackers
Woods’s last two teams, the 49ers and Broncos, had two productive inside linebackers for fantasy football. Time will tell if Joe Schobert will be one of them. His contract is expiring. Mack Wilson replaced Christian Kirksey at the other LB position due to injury. That change looks permanent based on Kirksey’s contract situation.
Like other defenses with an under-tackle, the third linebacker rotates down to the edge. Pete Smith of SI/Browns Digest is among writers speculating that LB Sione Takitaki could earn snaps on the edge, possibly even displacing Ogunjobi on the D-line in obvious passing situations.
https://twitter.com/barleyhop/status/1115416021567930368?s=20Browns Defensive Backs
The Browns have also hired Jeff Howard to coach defensive backs and coordinate pass defense. Howard comes to Cleveland from Mike Zimmer’s staff in Minnesota. The Vikings defense is known for utilizing its cornerbacks in man coverage with one or two safeties playing deep zone. Howard’s addition suggests that cornerbacks Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams will be used in man coverage, which was identified as the strength of their game entering the league in 2018 and 2019, respectively.
The Browns will need to bring in a player capable of playing single-high safety behind Sheldrick Redwine. The second-year safety Redwine profiles as a useful IDP. A breakout might hinge on whether he plays enough snaps near the line of scrimmage to be a plus in fantasy lineups.
Scheme for Advantage
4-3-under defenses have been gold mines for IDP fantasy football since the Seahawks’ success with it in 2013. Lately, all of the league’s practitioners of the 4-3-under – Seattle’s Pete Carroll, Atlanta’s Dan Quinn, LA’s Gus Bradley, Jacksonville’s Todd Wash, and San Francisco’s Robert Saleh – have evolved to become more multiple. The 49ers added a wrinkle in 2019 by widening both defensive ends’ alignments. SI’s Robert Klemko credits this change for maximizing Nick Bosa’s pass rush.
As a result of the wide-9 DEs, the scheme relied less on an edge-setting linebacker. With three stack linebackers in base defense, the strong safety remains in the defensive backfield and is more interchangeable with the free safety. Both safeties are thus more readily available for zone defense. The 49ers used significantly more “quarters” coverage (“cover-4”) in 2019 than it had in 2018, when they more frequently deployed cover-3 with one deep safety. The 49ers contributed to a rise in usage of Cover-4 across the league.
Buy and Sell with the Changes
The 49ers scheme changes were well covered in California before the 2019 season started but went largely unnoticed in IDP fantasy circles. The changes neutralized starting strong safety Jacquiski Tartt as an IDP asset.
Early indications are that fears of a 3-4 wrecking Myles Garrett’s fantasy value are unwarranted. While gamers worry about the stud defensive end, potential breakouts and sleepers abound in his shadow. The Browns defense bears monitoring for wrinkles that upend assumptions, but the costs are low. The investment risk is merited.
Imagine Garrett as a Wide-9 end. Go trade for him! Shop for Wilson. Add Redwine. Watch free agency and the draft for an incoming weak-side end.
Clemson and Michigan alum…Panthers and Cowboys fan…I try to see both sides of every debate and each trade. Find me on Twitter @DynastyTripp.
