In part one of this series, I reviewed tight end strategy in 2019 redraft formats. Here in part two, I will examine the early versus late-round quarterback debate. As always, when evaluating quarterbacks in my articles, I will use the scoring format of 4-point passing touchdowns and -2 for interceptions. Yahoo’s ADP data is the source of the ADP used in this article.
Hit ’em High
Of the three strategy debates, this is the one where I have by far the strongest opinion. Given that I wrote a weekly streamers article for DFF, it should come as no surprise that I am one of the biggest advocates for a late-round quarterback approach. As an important note, I will be completely excluding Andrew Luck from this study, as he retired before a majority of fantasy drafts. Therefore, the top five quarterbacks drafted were Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers, Baker Mayfield, and Matt Ryan. Let’s look at these players in table form to illustrate how they performed in 2019.
[exceltable id=’68215′]
Outside of Mayfield, all of these quarterbacks finished as QB1s in 2019. However, each of these quarterbacks were drafted in the top 60 picks, or the first five rounds in a 12 team draft, removing any opportunity to find value by selecting them. When looking at points per game, Watson was the QB2, and Mahomes was the QB6, and they missed one and two games, respectively. But, consider that Mahomes had an ADP of 16.5 or a high second-round pick. Those owners who drafted Mahomes at that price were incredibly disappointed, especially since Joe Mixon, Tyreek Hill, George Kittle, and Mike Evans were some of the players taken soon after Mahomes. Considering that Watson finished as QB2 in points per game, I would say that he was at least a decent pick. I probably would have preferred to start building my wide receiver or running back depth. Chris Godwin, Julian Edelman, and Mark Ingram were some of the best players available in the picks directly following Watson in drafts, but selecting Watson at his cost did not kill your fantasy team.
On the other hand, Rodgers, Mayfield, and Ryan tell a far more negative tale. Rodgers finished as the QB10, but that finish is hugely misleading. He had one massive game in Week 7 against the Raiders, where he threw for over 400 yards, five touchdowns, and rushed for another touchdown. He actively hurt your team in many weeks, throwing for three or more touchdowns just three times all season. Even though Rodgers performed poorly, Mayfield was even worse. He threw just 22 touchdowns despite playing all 16 games. He also managed to throw 21 interceptions and totaled just 3,827 passing yards. The only reason Mayfield was even as high as the QB19 was his three rushing touchdowns, not a normal part of his skill set. Those who picked Rodgers or Mayfield passed on players like Kenny Golladay, Chris Carson, and Tyler Lockett, all of whom were top options at their positions in 2019. Even Ryan was just okay in 2019. He missed a game and was tenth in points per game, but even he provided no advantage by selecting him in the back of the fifth round. Phillip Lindsay, Tyler Boyd, Allen Robinson, and Cooper Kupp were some of the big names who went just after Ryan, all of whom provided far more value than Ryan.
Hit ’em Low
Moving on from the highly drafted quarterbacks, let’s now move into the values in the draft, the late-round quarterbacks. Below, I listed every quarterback who finished as a QB1 who had an ADP outside of the first seven rounds. Generally, a starting lineup at RB, WR, and TE consists of approximately seven players, so I typically start considering quarterback in the eighth round.
[exceltable id=’68219′]
The top three quarterback fantasy finishers in 2019 were Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, and Jameis Winston. Jackson averaged six more points per game than any other quarterback and was a league-winner for those who drafted him. Considering Jackson’s overall ADP of 98.4, owners who drafted Jackson likely filled their entire starting lineup before adding Jackson to their teams. Every team I saw that drafted Jackson made the playoffs, and many were league-winners. Winston and Prescott were also strong values, as they went in the tenth round and finished second and third in quarterback scoring.
However, even if you failed to grab any of those three players, many quarterbacks that weren’t even drafted had streaming impact throughout the 2019 season. Ryan Tannehill and Ryan Fitzpatrick were both high-end QB1s over the second half of the season. Neither player was drafted in any typical redraft league, but both could be considered league-winners.
In general, you can stream quarterbacks and can often find a low-end QB1 on waivers each week. Sometimes, you even hit gold with a Lamar Jackson in the late rounds. The main selling point to the late-round quarterback approach is that you can win the league with the right selection late in the draft, but you can’t do that by taking an early quarterback. Therefore, the late-round quarterback approach is the way to go, and 2019 was no exception. It was a prime example to illustrate late-round quarterback’s superiority as a strategy.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Justin. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
