As fantasy sports analysts and fans in general, sometimes we tend to overreact to certain events. The Super Bowl, being the biggest stage of the season, always causes instant over and underreaction – oftentimes to our fault. With this year’s game being what some are calling “the greatest five hours of television in history,” we’ve already heard it all.
“Patrick Mahomes is the GOAT.”
“Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t good.”
“Kyle Shanahan chokes in high-pressured game management situations.”
In this offseason column, I break down how key events and roster moves affect the 2020 redraft fantasy football season. We’ll begin with Super Bowl LIV – a game where the Andy Reid, Mahomes, and the Kansas City Chiefs ended a 50-year drought when they scored 21 unanswered points with less than six minutes to play to defeat Shanahan, Jimmy G, and the San Francisco 49ers to capture the Lombardi Trophy. Let’s start at the most-talked-about position in fantasy football – the running back.
Kansas City’s Backfield
Damien Williams, the player who some argued should have been the Super Bowl MVP, was a huge let-down during the fantasy football season. He finished the year as RB42 after being drafted in the top-40 overall in most redraft formats. Now, with LeSean McCoy and Spencer Ware both most likely moving on or retiring in free agency, the Chiefs backfield once again becomes a question mark. Williams will be in a contract season, as the team has a club option they must exercise by March 18. Because of his postseason experience and success, it would be tough not to see him return to Kansas City in 2020.
Behind him, Darwin Thompson, who was the only other Kansas City back to receive a carry in this season’s postseason (2), returns for his second season under his rookie contract. For now, that leaves just Darrel Williams, who was placed on injured reserve in Week 13 with a hamstring injury, and Elijah McGuire. Both of whom are in the final year of the current contracts.
At first glance, the immediate overreaction to the Super Bowl is that Damien Williams should once again enter the season as a top-20 pick at the position. However, Williams has still never started more than six regular-season games or had more than 111 carries in a season. Yes, he’s been dynamic in the past two postseasons; but he’s failed to impress throughout an entire season.
With the Chiefs not having any glaring holes if they’re able to resign defensive standouts, Chris Jones and Tyrann Mathieu, they may go running back at pick 32. It’s plausible that either one or both of J.K. Dobbins or D’Andre Swift, the two top running back prospects, could slide through the first round for Kansas City to take one. If that is the case, Damien Williams’s Average Draft Position (ADP) would slide tremendously. That makes him a possible value if he’s the bridge or change-of-pace back. This would most likely leave the incoming rookie being drafted in the 30s or 40s – similar to Kareem Hunt in 2017. Right now, the Kansas City backfield is a wait-and-see for me but still holds as much potential as ever.
San Francisco’s Backfield
The 49ers backfield: wildly productive this season, yet somewhat of a guessing game with three players finishing the season between RB32 and 45. Raheem Mostert, who started the season as the team’s third-string running back, surprisingly finished the fantasy season as RB32. He led the team in rushing yards (772), yards per carry (5.6), and rushing touchdowns (8), despite having only 137 attempts, the same amount as Tevin Coleman and only 14 more than Matt Breida. The 49ers continued to ride the hot hand of Mostert throughout the playoffs. He rushed for 336 yards and five more touchdowns on 53 carries.
Tevin Coleman served as the teams “starter,” but in reality, was the change-of-pace back, totaling 154 yards and two touchdowns on 33 carries. Come August, Matt Breida could be playing elsewhere as the 49ers already have both Mostert and Coleman under contract through 2020, in addition to owing Jerick McKinnon, who has yet to take a snap for San Francisco, over $13 million the next two seasons.
If Breida doesn’t return, and the 49ers don’t add much backfield talent in free agency or the draft, it would appear that it’ll be a timeshare between Mostert and Coleman – similar to what we saw in the postseason. The 49ers line is one of the best in football and Kyle Shannahan has proved his ability to succeed using the zone running game. However, there is still a risk involved in putting too much stock in their backfield.
Shanahan has proven, both in Atlanta and San Francisco, that he wants a committee and will ride whoever has the hot hand – leading to streaky fantasy outputs. However, if Breida’s 123 carries are divided amongst only Mostert and Coleman, they could be huge bargains. In that case, I wouldn’t mind spending a sixth or seventh-round pick on Mostert in redraft to start as an RB2 or flex. I’d consider Coleman a round or two later than Mostert based on his higher injury risk and lower effectiveness than Mostert this season.
San Francisco’s Receivers
I think after the 49ers Super Bowl run this season it’s safe to say that both the Dante Pettis and Marquise Goodwin experiments can be written off as failures. Unfortunately, they’re both on the books through 2021. There’s a good chance Emmanuel Sanders dips in free agency, and Trent Taylor seems like just a name from the past after suffering yet another season-ending injury in 2019. Kendrick Bourne is a restricted free agent. But, I expect after showing progress this season and being the team’s third-leading receiver in the postseason that San Francisco will retain him as their WR2 if the price is right.
That leaves only returning 2019 rookies, Deebo Samuel and Jalen Hurd. Unlike Hurd, Samuel had a formidable rookie season – posting a 57-802-3 stat line on just 81 targets. Even more impressive was Samuel’s postseason. He led the team in receiving in addition to having 102 rushing yards on six attempts. Samuel was one of the brightest spots for San Francisco during the Super Bowl. That should solidify him as the team’s WR1 heading into next season. Samuel’s agility and strength bring the 49ers that big-play ability they’ll need if they want to knock off the Chiefs next season. Yes, his ADP will probably be higher due to his impressive Super Bowl performance. I’d be willing to take him in those middle rounds if it seems clear in August he’s Jimmy G’s go-to.
With that said, if Bourne returns and Sanders doesn’t, I think Bourne becomes an interesting sleeper candidate. And if neither of them does you could be starring down Hurd’s potential in those late rounds. Either way, I expect Garoppolo and Shanahan to return with a vengeance, desperate to change the narrative which could give the entire receiving core seeing more volume.
Kansas City’s Receivers
Tyreek Hill led the Chiefs with nine receptions and 105 yards in the Super Bowl. He will once again lead the Kansas City receiving core coming into next season. Hill finished the season as WR31 after only playing 11 games. While I’m comfortable passing on a guy like Hill for an elite RB, I understand taking him somewhere in the second round.
Opposite of Hill, Sammy Watkins is a total toss-up at this point after saying in an interview that if the Chiefs win the Super Bowl he may take a year off to rest and “chill.” And with Demarcus Robinson most likely departing in free agency that would leave just Mecole Hardman, the team’s rookie of the year, and one-hit-wonder Byron Pringle returning for Mahomes.
There is immediate value with whoever Mahomes is targeting. This situation, unfortunately, is also a “wait-and-see.” The Chiefs could very well go out and add another receiver in the draft if they’re not sure Hardman can slide into the WR2 role if Watkins were to sit out.
Other Notes
Mahomes will indefinitely be the second quarterback off the board in most drafts come August following only Lamar Jackson. His ADP could be somewhere similar to what it was this pasts season. If that’s the case, it’s hard to advise drafting Mahomes early with so many young mobile quarterbacks available for not much capital later on. But, it’s also hard to discredit taking him there too much either, given his past outputs.
On the flip side, given Garoppolo’s expected low or even non-existent ADP mixed with my belief that he’ll come into the season with something to prove, I’m fine with taking him late depending on what San Francisco’s early schedule looks like. That leaves us with All-Pro tight ends Travis Kelce and George Kittle to discuss.
Early indications suggest that both of their ADP’s could remain similar. Kelce’s may slide into the mid-to-late second round instead of the late-first-to-early second it was this past season. Ths is due to his slight regression in 2019.
With a surplus of middle-round receivers with high-upside like D.J. Moore, Courtland Sutton, and Deebo Samuel heading into next season, I’m fine with loading up on running backs and one of these tight ends at the top of my draft and filling in the holes at WR later.
Stay tuned for more Redraft Reaction this offseason. And follow me on Twitter @DFF_SethW for more fantasy football analysis and Content.
