Dynasty

Three Breakout Quarterbacks for Dynasty in 2020

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Quarterbacks in most cases do not win you championships in traditional fantasy football leagues. However, getting a solid starter can give you an edge for many years. Here we highlight three young quarterbacks that are poised for not only a breakout in the NFL but your trust at the helm of your dynasty team. 

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Green Bay Packers Dynasty Outlook for 2020

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It seems like decades ago that the Green Bay Packers were known as the team that sits out free agency. My how things have changed since Ted Thompson stepped aside for Brian Gutekunst. This year, the Packers have brought back some smaller, but important pieces on both sides of the ball this offseason. These re-signings are signals that they may value some of their current offensive talents more than we think. Let’s take a look at the Packers skill positions from a dynasty lens.

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Kyler Murray: No Need To Worry 

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Some dynasty owners have raised concerns about Kyler Murray’s ability to succeed at the NFL level. He ranked 27th in touchdown rate (3.7%) and threw 12 interceptions to 20 touchdowns. While he finished as the fantasy QB7, he had one of the lowest FPPG (18.82 ppg) out of the top 10 quarterbacks. Murray owners know how inconsistent he was last year, it was either boom or bust, but I’m here to alleviate any uncertainty.   Red zone Efficiency  Teams who get in the red zone more frequently score more touchdowns. Therefore, quarterbacks on teams who get into the red zone more frequently have higher touchdown rates. As previously mentioned, Kyler Murray’s 3.7% touchdown rate finished amongst the worst touchdown rates in the NFL in 2019, but the Cardinals 53 red zone attempts were above league average. Baltimore, Seattle, San Fransico, and New Orleans are all examples of teams in the top ten for red zone attempts with quarterbacks in the top ten for touchdown rate.  Kyler Murray had a historically low touchdown rate in 2019 for the number of times the Cardinals were within striking distance. Kyler Murray is a clear positive regression candidate. As much as the term “regression” is overused, it’s truly applicable here. There’s no way Murray’s touchdown rate stays so low with the amount the team is in the red zone, especially with the recent addition of DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins finished 2019 with a 75% red zone success rate inside the five-yard line.  Framework of trade still being finalized, sources tell ESPN: 🏈Cardinals get DeAndre Hopkins and a late-round pick. 🏈Texans get David Johnson and a […]

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Brady to the Bucs

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After 20 years of terrorizing the AFC East, Tom Brady is taking his talents south to Tampa Bay. Brady in anything other than a Patriots’ jersey is going to take a while to get used to. While everyone else is still adjusting, let’s take a look at the fantasy implications of his move.

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Does the NFL Combine REALLY matter?

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Everyone is touting “Their Guys” and making bold predictions for the Combine. I love taking in this information, as it gives me a better idea of how the community views the perceived athleticism and value of the upcoming rookies. We all want our favorite players to do well at the NFL Combine, but does their Combine performance matter?

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Pumping The Breaks On Stefon Diggs

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Stefon Diggs, formerly part of the third-best WR duo with Adam Thielen and owner of the NFL’s second-best Twitter account (ranking only behind the self-proclaimed Lizard King, Sammy Watkins), has recently been traded. Anyone who watched Vikings games last season could see the frustration that Diggs and Thielen had with Cousins under center in the first few weeks of the season. Sideline blowouts were routine as Cousins checked-down, overthrew, underthrew, or gave himself up. While they seemed to turn it around mid-season, apparently Diggs was determined to still work his way out of town. So he’s packing his bags, moving from a quarterback he saw as unreliable and an offense that was too focused on the run last season, for the Buffalo Bills…? Queue record scratch effect, puzzled looks, cartoon question marks over our collective heads. To me (and most of Twitter), it seems that Diggs could have made out a lot better here. A Victim of Philosophy Diggs was pretty publicly advocating for the Vikings to pass more, utilizing him and Thielen as focal points of the offense. Rightfully so, they are two phenomenal athletes and talents, but so is Dalvin Cook. Zimmer and the Vikings held firm, running the ball 51% of the time. Now on the Bills, Diggs will easily be the WR1, but they are a team that also ran the ball 48% of the time last season. They have an ascending running back in Devin Singletary. They are also widely speculated to either sign a running back or draft one to pair with Singletary. Should […]

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Texans Offense: Gaping Holes and Glaring Opportunity

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Without a doubt, the most surprising, perplexing and possibly season altering move was the Texans sending DeAndre Hopkins and a 2020 4th round pick to Arizona for David Johnson, a 2020 2nd round pick and a 4th round pick in 2021. The Texans also agreed to take on all of DJ’s bloated salary, which isn’t much less than Hopkins’. 

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Worst Landing Spots: QB 2020 NFL Draft

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The quarterback position is somewhat similar to tight ends in that you’re usually fine with any landing spot affording you a shot at a legitimate and immediately productive fantasy asset. Drafting a starting quarterback is great but ask the Dwayne Haskins or Sam Darnold owners how they feel about it so far. Some teams are not equipped to support or develop a high-level quarterback. These are those organizations. 

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Digging for Jules: Is Julian Edelman worth a dynasty buy?

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We all know the first rule of dynasty strategy. Successful owners find continued success because they are able to thread the needle of turning aging talent into young players and/or rookie picks. Julian Edelman is certainly a name owners are looking to sell as he enters his last year under contract, and possibly the end of his career. If you’re a team in contention, should the first rule apply, or should you be digging for Jules?  

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Foles to Chicago: The Meaning for Mitch, Minshew and Franchises

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This piece will cover the dynasty impact of the recent trade of Nick Foles from the Jaguars to the Bears. Let’s jump right in.    The Trade After deciding to go forward with Gardner Minshew as their starting quarterback, the Jaguars were looking to trade former starter Nick Foles. After searching for a few weeks, they settled on the Bears as a trade partner. The Jaguars received the 140th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, a compensatory fourth-rounder, in exchange for Foles.   Foles vs. Trubisky Based on just the money, one would expect Foles to be the Bears’ 2020 starter. Foles will receive $15.625 million from the Bears in 2020, while Trubisky will earn just $9.327 million. However, money is not the only part of the equation.  Bears GM, Ryan Pace, traded significant capital in the 2017 NFL Draft to trade up and select Trubisky second overall. It seems like both Pace, and head coach Matt Nagy, have bet their jobs on Trubisky’s success. Therefore, I believe that whether it’s the correct choice or not, Trubisky will get the first crack to start in 2020. In my opinion, we are heading for the same situation that Marcus Mariota and Ryan Tannehill were in for the 2019 season. Trubisky will get every opportunity to prove himself as the starter, but if he continues to fail, the Bears will not hesitate to make a mid-season quarterback change. Even though Trubisky starting is what I believe will happen, that’s a different question from what should happen. Let’s put Trubisky’s and Foles’ […]

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Receiving Corps vs Receiving Corpse: New Season Fallout

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This followup piece serves to address how each receiving corps is impacted by the DeAndre Hopkins trade to Arizona. The previous article on DFF was a quick reaction to the transaction. It mainly focused on the immediate fantasy impact for Hopkins and Arizona’s quarterback Kyler Murray.  

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Dynasty Debate: Josh Jacobs, Is He Elite?

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Welcome to the kickoff of a new series of articles I will be starting that will delve deeper into certain debates that are popular within the dynasty community. The purpose of these debates is not to convince you which side of the argument is correct but rather to shed light on a particular player and lay out a convincing counter-argument to their current narrative. Here we will discuss Josh Jacobs, running back for the Las Vegas Raiders. 

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Three Breakout Wide Receivers for 2020

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This article aims to identify three wide receivers to buy low on before they break out in 2020. The chart above plots Air Yards on the X-axis and 2019 PPR Fantasy Points on the Y-axis. 18 players in the NFL finished with over 1,400 Air Yards on the season. Of those 18, only three failed to finish with more than 200 fantasy points on the year: Mike Williams, Curtis Samuel, and Robby Anderson.

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Aaron Parker: Dominant Small-School Wide Receiver Target

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Aaron Parker checks a lot of boxes. First and foremost, Aaron has impressive age-adjusted college production. He broke out during his true freshman season at age 18 for the Rhody Rams. The Gwynn Park High School product was URI’s primary receiving option. He also had a 34.7% dominator rating (average market share of receiving yards and touchdowns) in his first season. Parker continued to produce at an elite level for Rhode Island. He earned over 35% of their receiving production in each of his final three seasons. He did so with his cousin and fellow NFL Combine invitee, Isaiah Coulter, playing opposite him as well. Parker leaves Rhode Island second all-time in team history with 3,460 career receiving yards and third all-time in touchdowns with 30.

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