Quarterbacks in most cases do not win you championships in traditional fantasy football leagues. There are a few exceptions such as Patrick Mahomes in 2018, Peyton Manning in 2013, and Tom Brady in 2007. Outside of those outlier years, a good fantasy QB brings above-average points consistently. The forgiveness and constant hope from fanbases for a rebound from bottom tier fantasy scoring QBs allow for a lower turnover rate at the position. In order to grab a starter at the position before a breakout, you have to buy well before it seems likely they’ll be entrenched as the captain for their franchises. In this article, I am going to highlight three young quarterbacks that are poised for not only a breakout in the NFL but your trust at the helm of your dynasty team.
Drew Lock, Denver Broncos
Drew Lock, the second-round pick of the 2019 NFL Draft, was barely able to start for the Denver Broncos despite needing to see his talents to be reassured in their own selection. He was injured in the preseason with a sprained thumb which sent him to IR for a short while. After coming back from injury, and presumably delving into the playbook as well as acclimating to the pro league, Lock was not named as the starter immediately for the Broncos. It took a season-ending injury to former Superbowl champion Joe Flacco and a few miserable outings from Brandon Allen before Drew Lock could take the field. Only able to play five games, Lock proved to John Elway that he has what it takes to be the future for the team . . . for at least the next year, that is. It has been difficult for quarterbacks to impress Elway since he began his tenure with Denver as GM and after Peyton Manning’s departure. So with at least a one year lease on the reigns of the team, can Drew secure himself as your fantasy starter at QB and the Denver Broncos future? I am certain he will exceed your expectations
The Broncos find themselves in a situation that most teams try to mirror. A young up-and-coming QB on a cheap rookie contract which allows them to spend free agency money on a supporting cast. Four-years, seven-million dollars for Drew Lock’s contract allows the Denver Broncos to sign a plethora of players, including veterans they’d like to bring back for continued cohesion. The addition of Melvin Gordon solidifies the backfield and allows Elway to add offensive line help through the draft. All of this points to the team fully supporting and posturing for a future with Lock. I would recommend you follow the Bronco’s suit and add Lock for cheap so you can build your dynasty team around him before the breakout.
In five starts late in the season at a time when teams were pushing for the playoffs, Lock was able to win four out of five games. He threw for 1020 yards, seven touchdowns, and three interceptions. I know we barely glimpsed what we will see from Lock. With another offseason of gaining traction with his teammates and rapport with his weapons, it will be showcased next season. Expect the buzz to only grow when they add help through the draft. The knock on him in college was that he had 9” hands and was inaccurate. Well, in five starts he had a 64% completion rating. Also, Joe Burrow has 9” hands and is the consensus number one overall pick in the upcoming 2020 NFL Draft for the Cincinnati Bengals. While in college, Lock started all four years at Missouri and ran a 4.69 40 yard dash at the combine which is faster than Patrick Mahomes (4.80). The arrows all point up for Lock in his sophomore season, and a breakout is imminent. Think of a former Denver Bronco rookie who started in a limited fashion, Jay Cutler. At first, it doesn’t sound all too sexy, but Cutler threw for 20 touchdowns and 3,400 yards in his sophomore season and had a decent career over eleven seasons. Lock will do better than Cutler, but at worst you’re solidifying your quarterback two in superflex leagues.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
The obvious breakout choice with the recent addition of DeAndre Hopkins through free agency is last year’s number one overall pick. Murray brings a double-edged sword to your fantasy matchups with the ability to put up points on the ground and through the air. With the new addition of Hopkins on offense, the Cardinals are able to turn to adding talent at the tackle position in the draft with the number eight overall pick in 2020. Surrounding their franchise quarterback with talent is the number one priority this offseason for Arizona, and they’ve made it very clear by signing Hopkins.
Last year, even finishing as the number eight quarterback, he still has the ability to grow and produce better statistics going further. Not a single wideout surpassed a thousand yards for the Cardinals, but Murray produced as a QB1 over the course of the season. Much of this is because of Murray’s rushing totals; he had 544 yards rushing, and 445 of those came before contact. He was playing intelligently and preserving himself for the future for not only the Cardinals but your dynasty team. Opposing teams blitzed Murray 151 times, but only managed to sack him 48 times. Now that they do not have the need to select a pass-catcher, they can revamp the offensive line in the draft, and the time he has to operate in the backfield safely will increase. He managed to play all sixteen games in his first season, and before coming into the NFL the main knock on him was durability. Well, he proved that he can escape pressure without getting himself hurt and that he will last in the ever-evolving NFL. Murray’s passing totals leave something more to be desired which should boost his fantasy finish. There is room to move from the eighth-best fantasy quarterback in his rookie season to an elite level top-five quarterback for the foreseeable future. Kliff Kingsbury’s offense with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins will only bolster Murray’s passing stats from 3,722 yards to another level in his sophomore season. Hopkins has topped 1,200 yards in five out of seven seasons and helps any quarterback passing to him.
In 2019 his touchdown to interception total was 20/12, with an additional four touchdowns on the ground. These numbers for a 2019 offensive rookie of the year are decent, but not anything to scream over. In the second half of the season, Weeks 9 through 16, he had 13 of those 20 touchdown passes. The touchdown total would be twenty-six if he kept that pace, and we should expect more with another year of working with the WR’s as well as adjusting to the NFL. It will also help not having to deal with the draft and incoming rookie hype. Kyler is going to settle into the offense and have a higher completion percentage and a more efficient effect on your fantasy team.
Christian Kirk is going into his third season, typically when WR’s finally hit their stride and perform for your fantasy teams. Larry Fitzgerald doesn’t have to carry the WR1 role with Deandre Hopkins in town and can play the slot role where he is most comfortable. Former second-round pick and speedster Andy Isabella can stretch the field for Murray. KeeSean Johnson showed flashes throughout the 2019 season, and Hakeem Butler is still waiting to perform for his team. This Arizona Cardinal, Kliff Kingsbury, air-raid attack now has the depth and ability to perform as intended. Kyler Murray was handpicked to run this offense, and before the trade for Deandre Hopkins, looked promising to take a step further in the passing department. I expect Russel Wilson-like numbers moving forward. They have similar play styles, but diving deeper they had some eerily similar stats in their rookie seasons. If you have the ability to add him to your dynasty roster for the right price do so, or if you already have him then you will not be upset with the rewards coming.
Daniel Jones, New York Giants
The New York Giants were plagued by injury in 2019. Saquon Barkley, Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, and Jones himself all missed eighteen games total throughout the course of the season. Despite only starting twelve games in 2019, Danny Dimes was able to put up 24 touchdowns and 12 interceptions with just over 3,000 yards passing and an additional two touchdowns on the ground. Breaking that down, it’s an average of 250 yards two TDs and one Int per game. Also, if you were to have a full season with Jones starting, it would be over 4,000 yards and 32 touchdowns. That would be a solid QB2 for your dynasty roster and is a simple projection without progression moving into Jones’s second season.
The Giants are going to build around Daniel Jones and make him their QB of the future. They invested high draft capital in him in the 2019 draft by selecting him number six overall. They now have another high pick in this upcoming draft and need to protect the future of their franchise. The team is expected to select an offensive lineman in the 2020 draft per How the Giants can win the 2020 NFL Draft. This would not only be a solid move for Jones, but it would also aid Barkley’s ability to help the offense as a whole. Darius Slayton led the offense in yards last season and was a promising rookie who flashed big-play ability. However, this year’s draft is also deep at wideout, and the Giants could support Jones with another option out of this class.
The most promising note of the offseason for Daniel Jones to progress into a breakout is the personnel changes that the Giants made moving into the 2020 season. Joe Judge comes from New England and was a WR and Special Teams coach. He also worked at Alabama under similar roles. Judge brings years of experience to enhance Daniel Jones as a quarterback and a football player. Then New York brings in Jason Garrett as OC to only hammer the point home that they want Jones to succeed. At first, this seems odd because of the flack that Garrett has taken recently. However, try not to forget his resume with quarterbacks. Garrett has worked with primarily two quarterbacks during his tenure with the Giants division rival, the Dallas Cowboys. Those two being undrafted Tony Romo and fourth-round selection Dak Prescott. Despite both quarterbacks having less draft pedigree than Jones, they excelled and were the face of the franchise for years. If Daniel Jones can be anything close to what either of those two were for their franchise, you would not be upset with him for your dynasty rosters.
The Takeaway
It wasn’t easy selecting just three quarterbacks to breakout, and it was a coincidence that all three selections were rookies in 2019. However, you have to jump on a QB early before the breakout happens or else you will miss the ride. Jones, Murray, and Lock will all give you consistent fantasy production for years to come as their franchises try to build around them. They each have room to grow but have shown you the floor, and that was enough for their respective franchises to trust them. You should make sure to build your dynasty roster around them as well.
If you have any questions or comments feel free to contact me via twitter at @DFF_MattBull.
All stats come from https://www.pro-football-reference.com/
