In my previous offseason reaction article, I covered the Bears’ trade for Nick Foles. While that trade had dynasty impact in superflex formats, it was relatively irrelevant to regular dynasty leagues. However, the Bills’ trade for Stefon Diggs from the Vikings has massive ripple effects on both franchises for almost all of their fantasy assets. I’ll give a stock up or stock down for each affected asset or asset class based on this trade.
The Trade
Bills receive: WR Stefon Diggs, 2020 seventh-round pick
Vikings receive: 2020 first-round pick (22nd overall), 2020 fifth-round pick, 2020 sixth-round pick, 2021 fourth-round pick
Considering what the Texans received for DeAndre Hopkins, the Vikings made a successful trade here. They got rid of a disgruntled star in Diggs, who had wanted out of Minnesota for some time now. With that 22nd overall selection, I think the Vikings could target a receiver in the draft to replace Diggs. As I’ll discuss in my rookie preview articles, which are coming soon, there are many receivers in this draft class that could make an immediate impact. Even if the Vikings don’t use that pick on a receiver, they could select one in the second or third round. Either way, I love this trade for the Vikings.
As for the Bills, I also think they made an excellent deal here. In 2019, Josh Allen had limited weapons and no alpha wide receiver. Acquiring Diggs will provide that element to their offense and will give Allen the best chance to succeed. While the price might have been a bit hefty considering what Hopkins went for, this trade is entirely fair in a vacuum. I applaud the Bills for making this move to improve their chances of contending in 2020. Therefore, I have this as a rare win-win deal for both NFL franchises.
Stock Up
Josh Allen
Allen is one of the two biggest winners of this trade. He gets a new weapon in Stefon Diggs, further adding to his upside as a fantasy quarterback. He already finished as the QB9 in 2019, so he now could potentially jump into the top-five at quarterback. Allen loves to throw deep, targeting John Brown 115 times in 2019. Diggs will allow Allen to have a reliable deep threat. Additionally, Diggs is one of the best route-runners in the NFL. While Allen has struggled with his accuracy in his first two seasons, Diggs will run crisp and accurate routes. That might allow Allen to improve on his poor completion percentage.
After the Diggs trade, I moved Allen up to the QB7 in my 2020 redraft rankings and QB8 in my dynasty quarterback rankings. This is move is purely stock up for Allen. Adding a top wide receiver without losing any existing weapons must be a boon to his stock, both in dynasty and redraft formats.
Adam Thielen
Thielen is also a clear beneficiary of this trade. The Vikings’ offense was a low volume passing attack in 2019. The Vikings had fired previous, pass-happy offensive coordinator John DeFilippo after Week 14 in 2018. Then, new OC Kevin Stefanski wholly changed the offense coming into 2019. Kirk Cousins threw just 444 passes all season and averaged only 240.4 passing yards per game. While Stefanski moved on to the Browns after the 2019 season, his replacement Gary Kubiak was partially responsible for the Vikings’ 2019 offensive strategy. Therefore, I would expect the Vikings to run a similar offensive system in 2020 to what they ran in 2019.
With both Thielen and Diggs in the offense, both receivers had a capped ceiling. Now that Diggs is gone, Thielen should have the opportunity to play as the clear number one weapon. Even though Thielen will draw tougher coverage without the threat of Diggs, his targets and opportunity share should significantly rise. Here are Thielen’s stat lines from the previous three seasons since he became a definite starter for the Vikings.
[visualizer id=”74120″]
I believe that Thielen’s numbers plummeted in 2019 for two main factors: his injuries and the lack of passing volume. However, if Cousins maintains his stats from 2019, Thielen should inherit the added volume vacated by Diggs. Diggs still accounted for 94 targets in 2019, so there is plenty of room for Thielen to grow. I wouldn’t necessarily expect Thielen to reach his heights from 2017 or 2018, but he could be a reliable, high-end WR2 in 2020.
Stefon Diggs
It’s tough to say whether Diggs is a beneficiary or not because we never saw Diggs and Thielen both healthy in the Vikings’ 2019 offense. However, I believe that the Vikings simply would not have provided enough passing volume to support both Thielen and Diggs. Both the Vikings organization and Cousins seemed to prefer Thielen over Diggs. Whether that was due to Diggs’ attitude or play on the field was unclear. Therefore, if someone had to lose targets, I believe Diggs would have lost out to Thielen if both had remained Vikings in 2020.
In Buffalo, there is no argument that Diggs is the number one option. He instantly jumps past all existing weapons. Diggs only had 94 targets in 2019, despite playing in 15 of 16 games. I think Diggs could potentially reach his career peak of 149 targets that he had in 2018. In 2019, Diggs was the WR20 on just 94 targets. While I’m not necessarily projecting that type of volume for Diggs, we have never seen Diggs as the clear number one receiver on his team. Therefore, at the very least, his theoretical ceiling has risen with the move to Buffalo.
While Josh Allen is still developing as a passer, if he can take a step forward, that will mean an explosion for Diggs. Allen did improve from Year 1 to Year 2, raising his completion % from 52.8 to 58.8 and his passer rating from 67.9 to 85.3. If Allen can continue that trend, it will allow Diggs to flourish in Buffalo. I would have no problem selecting Diggs near the end of the third round in dynasty startups, and I value him close to the 1.03 in 1 QB rookie pick value.
Other Vikings Receiving Weapons
While some might say that Diggs’ departure opens a door for alternative weapons to step up in his absence, I would exercise caution. As discussed, I think Thielen is the primary beneficiary here. The Vikings will continue to deploy a run-heavy strategy and, if anything, will further reduce their passing volume with Diggs. However, there are some intriguing players on the Vikings’ roster.
Irv Smith, Jr. is the first candidate for added targets in 2020. In my rookie tight ends hits and misses article, I discussed Smith in detail. The Vikings deployed two tight end sets a majority of the time in 2019, an excellent indicator for Smith. Now that Diggs is gone, I expect the Vikings to use 12 personnel as their base offense. 12 personnel is a two tight ends, two wide receivers, and one running back set. Therefore, I expect Smith’s snap share to rise from 59.8% in 2019 to about 75-80% in 2020. Based on both Diggs’ departure and Smith’s progression in Year 2, I think Smith is a sneaky dynasty buy right now. I would give a mid-2nd round rookie pick in exchange for Smith.
None of the rest of the Vikings’ existing receiving options are particularly appealing. Rudolph will be back in 2020 and will be a starter. However, I would far prefer to go with the higher upside of Smith, especially considering that Rudolph turned 30 in November 2019. Rudolph could provide some streaming value at tight end but carries no dynasty value.
The Vikings also have a few depth wide receivers, but none have much experience in the NFL. The main two players that have received dynasty attention are Olabisi “Bisi” Johnson and Chad Beebe. The Vikings picked Johnson in the seventh round of the 2019 NFL Draft. Johnson caught 31 of 45 targets for 294 yards and three touchdowns as a rookie. He certainly flashed that he was a capable NFL receiver. Johnson is the only receiver outside of Thielen that I believe is guaranteed a roster spot on the Vikings in 2020, let alone a role in the offense.
Beebe was a popular dynasty sleeper coming into 2019. He went undrafted in the 2018 NFL Draft and caught just four passes in his rookie season. However, there was buzz surrounding Beebe from Vikings’ camp throughout the summer of 2019. He was on track to win the number three job behind Diggs and Thielen, but he suffered a series of injuries and missed most of the 2019 season. I wouldn’t waste a dynasty roster spot on Beebe at this point unless you have 30 spots or more.
Overall, I would ignore both Johnson and Beebe. After the Diggs trade, the Vikings will add a receiver to their team, either in the NFL Draft or in free agency. Whoever they add will return Johnson to the WR3 role and relegate Beebe to irrelevance. If the Vikings draft a receiver in the first round, that player will be intriguing for dynasty owners, as Thielen is about to turn 30 years old. Either way, the Vikings have a massive void at WR2, so look for them to make some sort of move before the 2020 season.
Stock Down
Kirk Cousins
Similar to Allen, the impact on Cousins is very clear. He lost one of his top two receiving weapons. That can only be a negative for his dynasty stock. However, Cousins received a two-year contract extension a few days before the Diggs trade. Therefore, he gained significant stability for dynasty owners. He’s a high-end QB2 for me in superflex formats. I prefer Cousins in superflex formats because his value relies on his guaranteed starting job. I would prefer more upside from a quarterback in a 1 QB dynasty format.
John Brown and Others
In Buffalo, Brown was the only receiving weapon that was particularly relevant in 2019. He finished as the WR22 in PPR formats. That relevance just disappeared. Diggs will play in the deep-threat role that Brown occupied. Additionally, Diggs will be a target hog, leaving just scraps for Brown. Brown had 115 targets in 2019, but I would be surprised to see him break 75 targets in 2020. He’s now the WR2 on a low-volume passing attack. I’d completely fade Brown in all redraft formats. In dynasty, I’d sell for anything I could get, since Brown is going to turn 30 years old in April and will never regain his dynasty value.
Cole Beasley plays in the slot, and I don’t think he’ll be as affected by Diggs. He likely won’t match his 105 targets from 2019, but I still believe Beasley can be a floor play in PPR. He finished as the WR34 in 2019. While I don’t see him matching that finish, he could still be a WR4 on 80-90 targets. Since Beasley already has little to no dynasty value, you might as well hold him on the back of your rosters.
2019 rookie tight end Dawson Knox is also on the roster. He flashed in 2019, and I expect him to take a small step forward in 2020. Having another weapon over the top could allow Knox to draw easier coverage. Either way, I don’t expect Diggs’ arrival to have a massive impact on Knox. Knox’s progression is more related to his development than anything Diggs will bring to the offense.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Justin. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
