After 20 years of terrorizing my hometown New York Jets, Tom Brady is taking his talents south to Tampa Bay. Brady in anything other than a Patriots’ jersey is going to take a while to get used to. While everyone else is still adjusting, let’s take a look at the fantasy implications of his move.
Quarterback: Tom Brady
What Brady has done on the field for real football is way better than what he’s done in the fantasy realm for quite some time. He has only one top 10 finish in the past four seasons. However, Brady is moving from having an injured N’Keal Harry, injured Mohamed Sanu, and no-name tight ends to having Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and O.J. Howard at his disposal. Of course, it will be interesting to see what he does without his go-to guy, Julian Edelman, lining up in the slot, but I think Chris Godwin is a pretty solid replacement. In 2019 Brady had Julian Edelman on the field for 88.5% of the offensive snaps, and he spent 53.6% of his time in the slot. Chris Godwin should compare favorably as he was on the field for 95.7% of the snaps and spent 50.5% of his time lining up in the slot. It will be very interesting to see what kind of chemistry Brady can form with Godwin without having OTAs.
The Bucs don’t seem to be done going after weapons for Brady either as there are reports that they want to deal for Brandin Cooks or draft a speed WR in the draft. With Gurley signing in Atlanta, my hunch is that the Bucs look to address the running back position in the draft. Brady is getting everything he wants. However, the question remains: will he produce? Brady still has the arm talent as shown by finishing top ten in pass attempt distance and seventh in overall yards while only throwing eight interceptions last year. With a much improved surrounding cast and a similar pace of play to New England (TB ranked eighth vs NE ranked 11th), there’s no reason to expect Brady won’t finish higher than last year’s QB15 finish (points per game basis). If you’re a contender and are short at quarterback, Brady is an optimal trade target in dynasty formats.
Wide Receivers: Mike Evans and WR Chris Godwin
Going from the epitome of inconsistency, Jameis Winston, to the G.O.A.T., Tom Brady, has to help the receivers, right? Not so fast my friend. Jameis Winston’s 30 interceptions last year were key to putting the Bucs behind in less than ideal game scripts. The Bucs, according to footballoutsiders.com, were ranked 10th overall in time of possession while leading but were also ranked 11th-worst in time of possession while trailing. This paints the picture of constant back and forth battles with a fast pace of play. This is backed up by their eighth-ranked pace of play mentioned earlier and even more so by their number one ranking pace of play while having a lead of seven or more points. This was great for the Tampa Bay receivers’ fantasy production. Winston even made Breshad Perriman fantasy-relevant down the stretch once Evans and Godwin got hurt. With Brady at the helm, I expect the passing yardage as a team to drop significantly from the 5,109 yards Winston posted last year. There is also some chatter on twitter about how this is terrible for Evans as the deep threat but great for Godwin as the slot receiver. I’m not buying that narrative. I believe Brady is still a great quarterback and that he will be able to hit whatever receiver is open. I just don’t believe they’ll need to throw as many times.
If I owned Godwin in a dynasty league, and other owners believed in his breakout last year plus Brady adding even more to his value, I’d be looking to sell for the same value as a DeAndre Hopkins or Davante Adams. Godwin’s value will not be any higher than right now, and in a few years, there will be an inevitable QB change once again. If I’m an Evans owner, I think it’s okay to sit tight. I’m not buying, but I’m certainly not selling.
Tight Ends: O.J. Howard and TE Cameron Brate
O.J. Howard is coming off an absolutely horrendous year, finishing with 34 catches for 459 yards and one touchdown . . . yikes. There were high hopes for Howard, the former first-round pick, after he posted 34 catches for 565 yards and five touchdowns in six fewer games the year prior. Howard’s teammate and fellow tight end Cameron Brate didn’t have a memorable fantasy year either, as he finished with 36 catches for 311 yards and four touchdowns. Is Bruce Arians’ system just not fantasy-friendly for tight ends? Most likely this was the case. Brate was only on the field 42.6% of the time so despite restructuring his contract to play with Tom Brady, he remains a long-shot fantasy option on a week-to-week basis until that changes. On the other hand, O.J. Howard was on the field 79.6% of the time, yet was out-targeted on the season by Brate 56-54. Both were about on pace to receive the same amount of targets as the wide receiver three in that offense, Breshad Perriman, before he was thrust into the starting lineup and saw twenty targets over the last two weeks of the season. Brady doesn’t just look for the tight end or make them great despite the constant search for the next Gronk. The Patriots utilized the tight end they had to the best of his abilities and that is exactly how they operate. After Gronk retired prior to last season, Brady went from targeting the tight ends 81 times to targeting them only 53 times the entire year. Brady will likely come into Tampa and run the system Bruce Arians sets up, which means the tight ends will not be either of the top two or sometimes even three looks on any given pass play. So don’t go expecting some grand resurgence for Howard.
Think I’m wrong about the Bucs? Let me know on twitter @DFF_JoeMem and join in on the discussion!
