Feeling shook yet? I’m getting dizzy just following all the offseason action. Brady out in New England, Hooper to BrownTown, Olsen in Seattle, Diggs to Buffalo. Without a doubt, the most surprising, perplexing and possibly season altering move was the Texans sending DeAndre Hopkins and a 2020 4th round pick to Arizona for David Johnson, a 2020 2nd round pick and a 4th round pick in 2021. The Texans also agreed to take on all of DJ’s bloated salary, which isn’t much less than Hopkins’.
Confused? So is the rest of the football faring world. Bill O’Brien as GM is the answer to the question: What would happen if we let the stewardess fly the plane? He has officially rewritten the rules of humanity to include a third certainty. They now read Death, Taxes, and Mind Bendingly Bad Trades.
Sure it makes no sense to trade for an overpaid running back with one good season, and two healthy seasons under his belt. Sure that good season came in 2016 and DJ hasn’t been healthy or efficient since. But that must mean he’s due right? Honestly, that’s as far into O’Brien’s thinking as I’m willing to go. Here we sit in a day and age that has shown that winning does not require an expensive “stud” running back.
But I digress. The rostered wide receivers are now Will Fuller, Kenny Stills, Keke Coutee, DeAndre Carter, and Steven Mitchell Jr. They are also on track to sign Randall Cobb to a 3-year, $27 million deal; because in Bill O’Brien’s mind it’s still 2014.
If you’re thinking that’s an impressive group, you might want to find a new fantasy sport. Fuller and Coutee, both deep threat speedsters, cannot stay healthy for a full season. They also do not possess the size, catch radius and contested-catch ability to be quality red-zone threats. Stills and Cobb are both smaller, traditional slot receivers who excel in short-yardage and breaking off larger gains with their speed. Carter and Mitchell barely saw the field in 2019. So what holes did Hopkins leave in this offense and what opportunity is there for other players?
Hopkins, the clear alpha and WR1 in this group, leaves behind 150 vacated targets. His production was a huge amount of the Texans offense last season. Per Pro Football Reference, Hopkins’ 150 targets was 28% of the team total. His 104 catches was 29% of the total. His 1,165 yards was 31% of the total His 7 touchdowns were 26% of the team total. Hell, he even threw for more touchdowns than backup AJ McCarron.
That’s a lot to account for. For the sake of this argument, we also need to note production to other positions. Per Pro Football Reference, running backs accumulated 54 catches on 78 targets. That accounts for 15% of the team targets and catches. Tight ends accumulated 71 catches on 106 targets, accounting for 20% of the passing offense.
Unpacking those numbers, it means that wide receivers carried a target share of 65%. Of that 65%, Hopkins’ 104 catches on 150 targets account for 43% of WR targets and 45% of WR catches. That is an insane level of production to need to account for. In fairness, it is possible that Fuller and Coutee stay healthy, that Stills and Cobb step up, and that targets are more distributed to RBs and TEs. But there is a distance between probable and possible, and in this case, the Sun could dance through that gap.
So who does Houston bring in?
Free Agents
The wide receiver free market is as barren as the toilet paper aisle right now; highlighted by the likes of Robby Anderson, Breshad Perriman, Emmanuel Sanders and Nelson Agholor. Without a doubt, Sanders is the most reliable producer in this group. But he is 33 years old and while he does possess great body control and speed, he is more than likely on his last contract. Even for O’Brien, expecting Sanders to account for a majority of the lost production would be inconceivable. Anderson is a speedy deep threat who will command a decent contract. The Texans already have two of these receivers, I don’t see them spending for a third. Agholor and Perriman are two former first-round flameouts who occasionally show flashes of their pedigree. Each underwhelmed with their first team and wouldn’t be an advisable option. Antonio Brown is available, and people do speculate about a comeback. But I’m not holding my breath.
The Texans have 46 million in cap space so it is possible that they sign one of these players and still turn to the draft. But with glaring needs at offensive line, defensive line and in the secondary, that should draw most of the money and make a free agent wide receiver signing unlikely.
NFL Draft
That means turning to the draft, and what a year to need a receiver!
The Texans now have picks: 40, 57, 90, 111, 171, 240, 248, 250. That more than likely puts them out of the running for Lamb, Jeudy, and Jefferson. Ruggs is the exact kind of player they need to avoid. Aiyuk is projecting high, but my fear is that he would trend to being more of a Ruggs than a Lamb. Look for them to use one of those top 3 picks on a wide receiver. Don’t be surprised if they even take two. Some names that should go on Day 2 to watch are:
Denzel Mims
Mims could be off the board in Round 1, so this might be a moot point, but he should be exactly the type of player the Texans aim for. A big-bodied X receiver from Baylor, Mims is 6’3” and weighs in at 206 lbs. He impressed at the NFL Combine and had a great senior season. His route tree could use some polishing, but he is quick, sure-handed and can fight for the ball.
Chase Claypool
Claypool seems to be polarizing. There was a lot of speculation that he could make the move to tight end coming out of the NFL Combine. But for the purposes of the Texans, who cares? They are a team with a high need at both positions. Claypool stands 6’4” and weighs in at 238 lbs., coming out of Notre Dame. He is an athletic specimen but lacks some polish. Should the Texans take him, his versatility at two points of need for them might make him a fantasy asset.
Bryan Edwards
Edwards comes from South Carolina at 6’3” and 212 lbs. He is a physical receiver with reliable hands, a young breakout age, and a high college dominator rating. He could play a majority of reps out of the slot and provide a similar effect that Chris Godwin did for the Bucs last season.
Michael Pittman
Pittman’s stock is rising. A 6’4”, 233-pound receiver from USC, Pittman could be an interesting pick. While his speed and agility might be areas for concern, he is a reliable receiver who can fight for the ball and wins those contested catches. The Texans have plenty of speed, what they really need is someone who can rack up catches.
Donovan Peoples-Jones
Peoples-Jones presents an interesting case study regardless of the landing spot. Coming out of Michigan, he is 6’2” and weighs in at 208 lbs. He, like the rest of this list, impressed at the NFL Combine and possesses many of the skills the Texans should be looking for. But his numbers at Michigan aren’t anything to write home about. Scouts are quick to chalk this up to bad quarterback play, and they very well might be right. His measurables all look great, and he might be a riskier bet, but he still has a lot of potential.
Conclusion
I believe the Texans will be quiet on the wide receiver free-agent market. They do have cap space to spare, but their needs in other places are greater, as are the caliber of players available at those positions. Look for the Texans to use their Round 2 and 3 picks to try to replace Hopkins. Or, look for them to possibly trade up into Round 1 to land a bigger fish. Whichever way they go, expect that player(s) to shoot up in dynasty rankings. As we saw above, they are walking into a truckload of opportunity and vacated production. Don’t be afraid to chase these names. Houston might be a confusing place, but don’t let that make you forget that whoever they draft has Deshaun Watson throwing them the ball.
For more rantings, check out the rest of my articles at Dynasty Football Factory, and follow me on Twitter at @ff_walrus
