Welcome to the kickoff of a new series of articles I will be starting that will delve deeper into certain debates that are popular within the dynasty community. The purpose of these debates is not to convince you which side of the argument is correct but rather to shed light on a particular player and lay out a convincing counter-argument to their current narrative. Today I will discuss Josh Jacobs, running back for the Las Vegas Raiders.
Coming off a quieter season from the Alabama Crimson Tide in which he split backfield work with Damien Harris, Jacobs shot up rookie draft boards when he was selected 28th overall by the then Oakland Raiders in the 2019 NFL Draft. He was the first running back selected in the draft and the only RB taken in the first round. Jacobs has all the tools to be excited about for fantasy. He had an ideal height/weight combination at the NFL Combine at 5’10” and 220 lbs, ran in the mid 4.5’s for his 40-yard time, and has soft hands when going for a catch. He profiles perfectly as a three-down back for the Raiders, which is precisely what dynasty owners are hoping for going forward.
In his first NFL season, Jacobs went on to have 1,150 yards, and seven touchdowns on 242 carries in only 13 games. He accumulated 27 targets through those 13 games as well. These stats add up to Jacobs finishing as the 14th running back in standard leagues and the 21st running back in PPR leagues. All positive signs for a rookie running back that only played in 13 games and who just turned 22 years old.
While on paper the positives are exactly what you could look for in a workhorse running back, there are two significant concerns fantasy owners are overlooking heading into the 2020 fantasy season. The first concern is Jacobs’ usage as a workhorse back. The reason why Jacobs only played 13 games last season was due to a shoulder injury that he received against the Green Bay Packers in Week 7. The fear that Jacobs can’t withstand the grind as the feature back for a full NFL season ties back to his concerns coming out of college. He had 299 total touches through three years at Alabama. He had a combined 262 through his first season in the NFL. Jacobs has never experienced that much work before on his body, and couldn’t make it to the finish line. There should be significant question marks surrounding his longevity that haven’t seemed to impact his draft stock.
The second concern surrounding Jacobs is his usage in the passing game. Jacobs accumulated 27 total targets in 2019, which ranked 47th among running backs last season. Now, there is an argument that he had a shoulder injury that would restrict his ability to catch the ball. This concern is valid, but would also be incorrect. Including the Green Bay game in which he injured his shoulder, Jacobs had 11 targets through six games. That would average out to 29 targets through 16 games, which is four fewer than his actual pace of 33. So the Raiders already were not using him as the passing down back before the injury.
The player that was siphoning most of the passing usage from Jacobs was Jalen Richard. The Raiders used Richard on approximately fifty percent of their passing downs for the season. Meanwhile, Jacobs was used only twenty-five percent of the time on passing downs. Richard’s usage was a dead split between the run and pass game with 39 total carries and 43 total targets. All from a team that utilized a rookie wide receiver and a tight end as it’s primary weapons for a majority of the season. What happens if the Raiders draft a high profile receiver in the 2020 NFL Draft, or acquire a receiver in free agency? It doesn’t mean there will be more targets for the running back position, that’s for sure.
To put a final nail in any hopes of a year two breakout for Jacobs in the passing game, the Raiders signed Jalen Richard to a two-year extension for a significant amount of money. The extension was two-years $7 million, with $4.6 million fully guaranteed. Compare that to Austin Ekeler, who was just signed by the Los Angeles Chargers to a four-year $24.5 million contract, with $15 million guaranteed. There is no question that Ekeler is the superior running back. Still, there’s only a $3 million per year difference between them, and Ekeler touched the ball almost three times more than Richard last season. This extension for Richard by the Raiders goes to show how highly they value him for their future.
The last interesting nugget of information that I found while researching this topic was Raiders’ head coach Jon Gruden’s usage of the running back position on his previous teams. 2019 was Jon Gruden’s 13th year as a head coach in the NFL. During the first three years of Gruden’s head coaching career, his target leaders were all pass catchers. Two receivers, and a tight end. In the following seven years, he completely revitalized his offense to utilize the running back, primarily in the passing game. In each of those seven seasons, a running back was top two in targets for the team. Since coming out of retirement for the 2018 season, Gruden seems to have regressed back to 1998 with the running back usage in the passing game, almost disregarding the position entirely. The more concerning stat to note is that not a single time in those years did a running back have double-digit touchdowns for Gruden. Without passing work and limited touchdowns, there is a ceiling on the RB1 in his system. Clearly, Gruden has shown he is willing to use one guy as a three-down back but is that guy going to be Josh Jacobs?
Josh Jacobs has everything you need in an elite running back prospect. He has the starting role with no competition, he has the measurables, and he has shown he can perform on the field. 262 touches in his first NFL season is pretty much an ideal fantasy touch total for a rookie. Gruden has shown he can make talented running backs into fantasy superstars in the past. But if you’re like me and see the risks associated with Josh Jacobs in particular then you should be selling your shares while his value is at an all-time high. The resigning of Jalen Richard, Gruden’s unpredictability with his running back usage, the workload concerns, and inability to make it through a whole season are all massive red flags. Throw in a pace of only 33 total targets on the season and it could spell disaster in PPR or Half-Point leagues.
Anyways, thank you for reading. You can find me on twitter @DFF_Calvin, and I’m always interested in debating player values. Now bring on the debates!
