It seems like decades ago that the Green Bay Packers were known as the team that sits out free agency. My how things have changed since Ted Thompson stepped aside for Brian Gutekunst. Last offseason the Packers added defense bringing aboard free agents Preston and Za’Darius Smith, Adrian Amos and drafting Darnell Savage. This year it’s been very quiet before the draft. The Packers have brought back some smaller, but important pieces on both sides of the ball this offseason. These re-signings are signals that they may value some of their current offensive talents more than we think. Let’s take a look at the Packers skill positions from a dynasty lens.
Quarterbacks
Since 2008 it has been the Aaron Rodgers show in Green Bay. Over those 11 seasons he has established himself as one of the more accurate passers in National Football League history. Rodgers is top 10 all-time in completion percentage and has the highest passer rating in the history of the National Football League. That said, the 36-year old quarterback has shown some signs of slowing in recent years. Rodgers is no longer the quarterback throwing 35+ touchdowns per year. According to pro-football reference his touchdown percentage has dropped to career lows over his last two full seasons (4.2% and 4.6% respectively). Some Rodgers apologists may excuse away his decrease in touchdown volume due to injuries, minimal offensive weapons, and a run-heavy offense. However, there are growing whispers among the fantasy community that Rodgers may no longer be an “elite” fantasy quarterback. We will touch on his wide receivers shortly, but given his age and decrease in performance it is okay to start looking for a younger version. To improve your fantasy team, moving Rodgers to the bench as a third quarterback option is a correct play. For the 2020 season, I view Rodgers as the 11th best quarterback and the arrow is pointing down.
Running Backs
Resigning Marcedes Lewis, a veteran tight end may seem like a throwaway move, but he had a big presence in the locker room. Lewis or “Big Dog” as Rodgers calls him, was also a force in the run blocking game. Green Bay has allowed Bryan Bulaga to walk but they picked up former Lions right tackle, Rick Wagner. Wagner provides some cushion at tackle allowing the Packers to use their early draft picks on a much-needed skill player. According to Pro Football Focus, “Bulaga ranked 17th of 57 offensive tackles who played at least half of the offensive snaps last year. Wagner, on the other hand, allowed three sacks in 12 games but was 42nd in that metric.” Admittedly, it is a step-down, but the rest of the offensive line will remain a huge asset for this team. The annual overachieving of that line can only continue to help the Packers one-two running back combo of Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams.
Now, this is where things get interesting. I believe that Aaron Jones is possibly the most electric player the Packers have on their roster (yes, including Davante Adams). But, in dynasty, now may be the best time to sell and get a haul for AJ if you’re not a contender. Aaron Jones scored a mind-blowing 19 total touchdowns last year (one behind Ahman Green’s team record) and is certain to show regression in that category. Also, keep in mind that Matt LaFleur frequently talked about keeping the running game fresh with Williams and Jones sharing touches at an almost equal pace. In 2019, Jamaal Williams played in 13 games and had double-digit carries in five of those games while Aaron Jones only exceeded 20 carries, three times. While this certainly qualifies as a third-year breakout; Jones was just 17th overall in average yard per carry among all running backs who played in 12 or more games. Barely being able to break 1,000 yards on the ground with a stellar line and Davante Adams keeping defenses out of the box doesn’t invoke a ton of confidence. As much as the fantasy community wants Jones to be a bell-cow running back among the likes of Ezekiel Elliott, it doesn’t seem like that is the plan. Jones should net quite a return in the trade market because he will be only 26 years old and according to fantasypros has an ADP of 23. Jones may produce as a top 10 running back again this year but I have him closer to a top 15.
Tight End
I get the sense that the Packers feel that last year’s third-round pick out of Texas A&M, Jace Sternberger, can contribute significantly this year. There has been some truth to the notion that Green Bay is where fantasy tight ends go to die (see Martellus Bennett and Jimmy Graham), but those tight ends were at the “check-cashing” end of their careers. The 2020 season will be the first time in many years that the Packers have a young, homegrown tight end that they can groom into the position. Used last year as a fullback at times, this will be Sternberger’s first real shot to take over the starting role. Sternberger is no stranger to production, when he was at Texas A&M under Jimbo Fisher he hauled in 48 receptions, 832 yards, and 10 touchdowns in his final year. Now, I wouldn’t set expectations quite that high, but Sternberger is someone that could be had for a third-round rookie pick and that could wind up being a steal. Sternberger is a perfect candidate for a breakout season which may vault him into the top 20 with the arrow pointing up.
Wide Receivers
This is an area that the Packers must add to this offseason. Of course the Packers have Davante Adams entrenched as the #1 option and as a top 4 wide receiver in fantasy. After Adams, the rest of the receiving options are a bit murky. Allen Lazard performed admirably after he had been cut in the preseason, but he feels more like 2019 Geronimo Allison and I don’t expect him to be the long-term answer here.
The Packers drafted three wide receivers in 2018, but one has been cut and the other two have produced minimal results on the field. Marquez Valdez-Scantling (MVS) had a disastrous 2019 after some fantasy owners had projected him as a sleeper. Equanimeous St. Brown did not play a snap in the 2019 regular season after being placed on IR with an ankle injury. I wouldn’t cut either of these guys quite yet until we see if they can curry the favor of Rodgers. If St. Brown and MVS don’t put something together this year, they can be stashed at the bottom of your bench or dumped in 10 team leagues.
The Green Bay Packers recently decided to bring in Devin Funchess most recently a member of the Indianapolis Colts. You may not remember him in that uniform as he only saw the field in one game before a clavicle injury forced him out for the year. This leads to a crowded wide receiver room: Davante Adams, Allen Lazard, Jake Kumerow, Geronimo Allison, MVS, Equanimeous St. Brown, and now Funchess. The addition seems like an odd fit for Green Bay. In my estimation, he can be viewed as a wait-and-see option for dynasty owners. I would not feel comfortable starting Funchess in any league until he gives us proof that his history of dropped passes are behind him.
The real arena in which Green Bay should be looking is in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. It has been 17 years since they’ve used a first-round pick on a wide receiver (Javon Walker out of Florida State in 2002). The prolonged run on defensive first-round picks has started to pan out and now seems like an obvious time to try to draft the counterpart to Davante Adams. Whoever the Packers take in the first round, (I’ve got my eyes on Justin Jefferson, Denzel Mims and Brandon Aiyuk) they would immediately find themselves as the number two wide receiver in a dynamic offense and would be worthy of a late first-round rookie pick.
The Packers are going to compete for another NFC North crown given the poor Chicago and Minnesota off-seasons, and Green Bay’s willingness to bring in talent through free agency. This team appears to be one that you can invest in for the next 4-5 years in dynasty and see a great return on investment, at least while it remains Mr. Rodgers’ neighborhood.
Thanks for taking the time to read this article, give me a follow on Twitter @DFF_Ztrain for more fantasy insight.
