I’m sure we can all agree 2020 NFL Free Agency has been filled with dramatic surprises, but NFL fans may have seen this one coming. Todd Gurley, the former offensive player of the year (2017) and two-time rushing touchdown leader (2017, 2018) has been released by the LA Rams. He was due $10.5 million, and the Rams were up against the cap with a running back showing possible long term injury concerns.
Gurley garnered interest from teams in the trade market before being released. He quickly found a new home in a familiar state. The Atlanta Falcons signed Todd Gurley to a one-year, $6 million deal less than a day after being cut by the Rams. He ends up back in Georgia where he went to college. Could a return to where it all started get his career back on track?
Recent Productivity
Prior to last season, Todd Gurley completed consecutive 1,200+ yard seasons before being conserved like a jar of jam. He carried the ball 33 fewer times and received 24 fewer passing targets in 2019 than in 2018. Coach Sean McVay told us he would protect Gurley’s fragile knees to carry him through a full season unscathed and kept true to his word. He finished with 857 yards rushing, 31 catches for 271 yards, and 14 total touchdowns. The 14 scores made his fantasy numbers look much better; his yards-per-carry (3.8) dropped a full yard from 2017 and 2018. His yards after contact also dipped from 2.4 to 1.7 in 2019. Gurley finished as the RB14, just outside the top 12 fantasy running backs.
One-Year Deal
Could a one-year “prove it” deal revitalize Todd Gurley’s career? Well, let’s consider his one-year, $6 million deal from the Falcons’ perspective.
A one-year deal means Atlanta is making a low-risk move with a considerably reasonable investment. They aren’t concerned about long-term implications and won’t preserve Gurley or hold him to a pitch count. The Falcons appear to be loading up to win now with the signings of Hayden Hurst, Dante Fowler, and now Gurley. We may see a huge resurgence if Atlanta decides to give him upwards of 300 touches.
The Falcons should still look to draft a running back given they only signed Gurley for the 2020 season. They don’t hold a top 50 pick preventing them from injecting some youth into that position group. A talented rookie could offer competition, but Gurley has a major advantage in the pass protection department anyway. He’ll manage to keep Matt Ryan upright far better than a rookie would, and that will keep him on the field more often than not.
His opportunity on the Falcons makes him an appealing fantasy asset this year and could be good for contending dynasty teams in 2020. He’s only 25 years old and could still have productive years ahead, but the one-year deal and injury history make him a fantasy conundrum.
Los Angeles Rams Backfield
Releasing Todd Gurley leaves a sizable void in the LA backfield, so who takes the reins in 2020?
Henderson was drafted in the third round of the 2018 NFL Draft out of Memphis. He’s a fantasy darling but didn’t perform very well when given the opportunity. He rushed just 39 times for 147 yards and just six carries after Week 10. Many analysts thought he would be used in the passing game, but he finished with only six total targets. He suffered an ankle injury late in the season and was placed on injured reserve in December.
Henderson will certainly get his chances in the upcoming season, but he’s up against some tough competition and hasn’t shown much to persuade the coaches he’s ready for the lead role. I’m not running out to overspend on Darrell Henderson shares and I wouldn’t advise you to either.
Malcolm Brown probably has the best shot at 2020 fantasy relevance considering the Rams matched the Detroit Lions offer last year and signed him to a two-year, $3.3 million contract. Signing a backup running back to that kind of deal indicates they believe he can succeed in their system. Brown averaged 2.2 yards after contact over the last two seasons. He maintained that in 2019 despite being afforded just 1.6 yards before contact. He finished last year with 69 carries for 255 yards and five touchdowns while averaging a pitiful 20% of the offensive snaps per game.
The Rams could still be on the hunt for a cheap Gurley replacement. A player like Devonta Freeman comes to mind, but it wouldn’t be terribly shocking to find Brown leading the Rams backfield this coming season. Hold him if you have him and sell him when he inevitably has a monster game.
Thank you for reading. If you have any thoughts or would like to discuss, you can find me on Twitter @WillieBeamanDFF
