Dallas and Their Stars

I’m back again with my fourth offseason reaction article. First, I wrote about the trade of Nick Foles to the Bears, found here. Then, I wrote a full breakdown article of how Stefon Diggs’ trade to the Bills affects all the fantasy assets on both the Bills and the Vikings. And after that, I wrote about the Browns, and their big offseason moves, which you can read here. Now, I’m going to discuss the Cowboys and how their free agency and contract decisions have impacted their offense.

Amari Cooper

The most significant move the Cowboys made was to re-sign Cooper to a 5-year, $100 million contract extension. While the extension seems massive, the contract actually represents a 2-year, $40 million deal. Cooper’s signing bonus, 2020, and 2021 salaries are guaranteed, but everything after that is not. His 2022 salary is guaranteed for injury only, and the Cowboys can avoid paying it if they cut Cooper before the fifth league day of the 2022 season. Therefore, for dynasty purposes, this contract should be considered a two-year pact.

Even though the contract only ties Cooper to the Cowboys for two years, it still provides a massive boost to both Cooper and the entire Cowboys’ offense. Cooper will play with Prescott for at least two more seasons, so he has a solid quarterback. To fully illustrate the impact that the Cowboys have had on Cooper, here are Cooper’s stats from 2018 before and after his trade to the Cowboys, as well as Cooper’s line from 2019.

Cooper received almost identical targets on a per-game basis in 2018 after his trade to Dallas and in 2019. Therefore, I expect Cooper’s role to at least stay the same now that he’s signed a massive contract extension. That role allowed him to finish as the WR10 in 2019, despite struggling with injuries down the stretch of the season. 

Cooper is a rock-solid WR1 in dynasty and an excellent redraft option. I value him similarly to the 1.01 in 1QB formats, although that depends on rookie landing spots. Either way, I think that now is the wrong time to try and buy Cooper, since the extension has added hype around him. He’s a solid dynasty hold.

Blake Jarwin

While Cooper’s extension gained the most attention, Jarwin also received a sizable deal from Dallas. Jarwin was a restricted free agent after the 2019 season, so the Cowboys had the option to either tender him a 1-year deal or to extend him. They decided to extend him, signing him to a 4-year, $22 million contract with $6.25 million guaranteed. Even though the guaranteed money is relatively low, this contract clearly shows that Jarwin will be the Cowboys’ starting tight end.

Let’s look at what Jarwin has done so far in his three years in the NFL.

In 2017, Jarwin barely saw the field as an undrafted rookie and recorded no offensive stats. Then in 2018, he split time with Geoff Swaim, Dalton Schultz, and Rico Gathers. In the final four weeks of the 2018 regular season, Jarwin had a mini-breakout. He exceeded a 50% snap share in each game and totaled 20 receptions on 25 targets in that span. Most notably, in Week 17, Jarwin had his signature performance to-date, catching seven balls for 119 yards and three touchdowns.

Coming into 2019, Jarwin was supposed to be the Cowboys’ starter. However, those plans changed when Jason Witten came out of retirement. While Jarwin still saw the field consistently throughout the season, he played behind Witten. Witten finished as the TE11, so the Cowboys’ tight end was a valuable role, just not for Jarwin.

Looking ahead to 2020, Witten left to sign with the Raiders, so Jarwin is the undisputed starter. Witten looked washed in 2019 and still finished as a back-end TE1. Therefore, Jarwin could undoubtedly do more in the same role and has mid-TE1 upside. His dynasty value is nowhere near that price, so he could still be a good dynasty buy even after his contract extension. 

Dak Prescott

First, Prescott’s value has been boosted significantly with the extensions for Cooper and Jarwin. Prescott has been a fantasy QB1 every season of his career, so retaining his weapons can only help him continue to do that. Cooper especially made a massive impact on Prescott. In 2018, Prescott’s season turned around after the Cowboys traded for Cooper. Here are Prescott’s stats in 2018 before the Cooper trade, after the Cooper trade, and his 2019 stats.

Prescott improved immensely in 2018 after the Cowboys acquired Cooper. His stats went up significantly across the board. Then, in 2019, Prescott continued to move forward, reaching new career highs in yards and passing touchdowns, finishing as the QB3. Therefore, on the field, Prescott is a high-end QB1 in both redraft and dynasty formats.

However, the Cowboys and Prescott have so far failed to agree to a new contract extension. Prescott will currently play the 2020 season on the exclusive franchise tag, worth between $30-33 million for one year. Negotiations between Prescott and the Cowboys have been somewhat acrimonious, with the two sides seeming far from an agreement for almost a year. The Cowboys and Prescott have until July 15 to agree to a long-term deal. Otherwise, Prescott will play the 2020 season on the franchise tag.

At this point, I believe that Prescott is trying to take the same path Kirk Cousins took a few years ago. I think that Prescott will play 2020 and 2021 on franchise tags before hitting the free agency market after the 2021 season. If a quarterback of Prescott’s level hits unrestricted free agency, he could be in line for an incredible amount of money. For dynasty players, though, Prescott should be locked into the high-powered Cowboys’ offense for at least two more years. He’s my dynasty QB5, behind just Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, and Deshaun Watson. If there is any discount on that QB5 due to his contract uncertainty, Prescott is a great dynasty buy, especially in superflex formats.

Michael Gallup

Gallup hasn’t had any change in his contract status, but he’s affected by the other moves that the Cowboys have made. Coming into the 2020 offseason, some people thought that Cooper would be on his way out of Dallas, and Gallup would become the Cowboys’ WR1. Once Cooper re-signed, Gallup reverted to the WR2 role that he occupied in 2019. 

However, let’s not forget that Gallup had 66 receptions on 113 targets for 1,107 yards and six touchdowns in 2019. He did that in just 14 games and with Cooper on the other side. Gallup averaged more targets and yards per game than Cooper did. Gallup also will be only 24 years old going into the 2020 season. I still rank Gallup inside my top-50 dynasty players in 1 QB formats, whereas I don’t think his trade value is that high. If you can get Gallup at a discount based on Cooper’s extension, that would be a genius move. I would send the 1.06 for Gallup, but you can probably get him for less. He tops the list of my dynasty buys right now.  

Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Justin. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.