How do you beat the stock market? Easy: Buy Low, Sell High.
This article aims to identify three wide receivers to buy low on before they break out in 2020. The chart above plots Air Yards on the X-axis and 2019 PPR Fantasy Points on the Y-axis. 18 players in the NFL finished with over 1,400 Air Yards on the season. Of those 18, only three failed to finish with more than 200 fantasy points on the year: Mike Williams, Curtis Samuel, and Robby Anderson. There are still a lot of questions surrounding these players, but one thing is certain; they’re all very talented players who underperformed last year. Let’s dive into each player to identify what needs to happen for them to break out and what you should aim to buy them for this offseason.
Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers
1,626 Air Yards, Rank 8
1,001 Receiving Yards: 161.3 Points, Rank 38
Mike Williams has been disappointing, but so have all three of these players. In Williams’ case, we see a deep threat who showed flashes of his capabilities to win jump balls last year. At 6’4”, 218 lbs., the massive Williams had noodle-arm QB, Philip Rivers, throwing him the ball.
Wasted talent? Now we have some questions about Williams with Rivers gone, who will the Chargers bring in?
Buy now, worry about that later! His size and speed aren’t going away anytime soon, and neither is his playmaking ability. The Chargers are linked to Justin Herbert in the draft and that would blow the doors open for a Mike Williams breakout. Herbert has “field flipping arm-strength” which would do wonders for the deep-threat Williams in his contract year.
Another question might be how Williams racked up all those air yards. Was it trust from his QB? Was it his own talent? Or was it just Rivers yelling “500 dead or alive!” as he chucked it up before getting sacked? Rivers is in the conversation for the Hall of Fame, he knows what his best options are even if his arm can’t make the throw anymore. 1,001 receiving yards isn’t anything to scoff at either. Even if RIvers just chucked the ball up to him, he had the talent to make the contested catch enough times to get to 1,000 yards and finish with a top 25 contested catch rate in the league.
Use the uncertainty at the quarterback position to buy low on a former top ten pick in the NFL Draft. Then trust that the Chargers will bring in someone that can help them win now as they have offensive weapons galore on their roster.
Curtis Samuel, Carolina Panthers
1,608 Air Yards, Rank 9
627 Receiving Yards: 171.7 Points, Rank 35
Oh, Curtis Samuel. He has been the darling wideout of Matt Harmon, of Yahoo Sports, and his Reception Perception model for years. Predicting breakout after breakout after breakout. Well, here we are. Going into year four of his contract we’ve seen nothing but injured Cam Newton and a slew of backup QBs trying to move the ball forward.
With almost 1,000 more air yards than actual receiving yards last season, Curtis Samuel led the league in that category. What’s truly incredible is that with all those yards left on the field, Samuel still had a mini breakout year in his own right. On a team heavily focused on giving All-Pro Christian McCaffrey the ball, Samuel had career highs in both receiving and rushing yards. Samuel’s versatility was just starting to shine through, and with Joe Brady taking over as Offensive Coordinator, I expect his utilization to remain at its current rate.
Now all that’s left to guess is what the Panthers are going to do at quarterback. GM Marty Hurney said they’re going to stick with Newton, but there are other reports that don’t seem so sure about that. Either way, the organization learned last season that Kyle Allen is fine as a backup, but nothing more, and Will Grier most likely isn’t panning out any time soon. Whatever happens, the QB play has to be better than what we saw last year.
Out of 107 targets, only 67 were deemed catchable. Those backup quarterbacks just couldn’t get on the same page with Samuel and his elite speed (4.31-sec. 40-yard dash). With an increase in target quality, Samuel is bound to take that next step into fantasy prominence. With Newton at the helm, a rookie waiting in the wings, or a free agent coming in to help, this should finally be the year for Curtis Samuel.
Robby Anderson, Free Agent
1,402 Air Yards, Rank 18:
779 Receiving Yards: 160.3 Points, Rank 40
I love Robby Anderson. He is an undrafted free agent who is about to get paid. He’s also underrated everywhere you look. Let me tell you something about New York fans; we hate everything our organizations do and have done for years. I know this feeling well being a Jets, Mets, and Knicks fan.
However, I love Robby Anderson. He’s fast, just watch that 92-yard touchdown catch against Dallas!
But you knew that. Most people think he’s just a deep threat. What they don’t acknowledge is his ability to run other routes well. PFF graded him 82.9 on intermediate routes in 2018. Anderson broke out in his second year in the NFL garnering almost 1,000 yards with Josh McCown throwing to him. Since then he has struggled to reach that level, however, QB Sam Darnold came in as a rookie in 2018 and established a connection with Anderson as he led the team in catches, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. In 2019, Darnold missed several games with mono and Anderson was left with the likes of Trevor Siemian and Luke Falk throwing him the ball for a quarter of the year. Falk was so bad he became the first QB in NFL history to start a game and then be released the following week. If that wasn’t bad enough, FootballOutsiders.com ranked the Jets 30th in the NFL, in pass protection. Despite this, Anderson was able to slightly improve on his numbers from year one with Darnold. Anderson is a free agent, but I have a feeling he’s going to end up in a good situation no matter what.
If he stays: He may stay because GMs won’t want to pay a lot of money to free-agent receivers with the receiving rookie class being historically deep. That might mean a prove-it year back with the Jets before the new CBA deal is signed and he can go get his big contract. It also means keeping the connection with Darnold, and most likely returning to a better situation than last year with Joe Douglas, the Jets GM, hell-bent on protecting his franchise QB through free agency and the draft.
If he leaves: Party time! He got away from the fantasy reaper that is Adam Gase. He’ll be brought in somewhere as a WR1, the Cardinals or Eagles, or a high end WR2 in an offense with targets to go around like the Packers. All of those would be great. Even with the Cardinals terrible offensive line, I think it’s better than last year because they should be addressing that in the draft with one of the big four offensive tackles.
Robby Anderson has the talent and he’s just one decent situation away from being a top 20 fantasy wide receiver. As long as he ends up in one of the situations above, I know he’s poised for a breakout year.
The Takeaway
Uncertainty creates opportunity. These three wide receivers have shown the ability to earn their QB’s trust, as well as the talent to make plays down the field. No matter who is at the helm, or where they are playing football next year, there are brighter days ahead and this is your chance to get them.
Got any questions or comments? Hit me up on twitter at @DFF_JoeMem for any fantasy football needs!
All Stats come from data exported from AirYards.com
