Twitter is a fun place, especially before, during and after the NFL Combine. Everyone is touting “Their Guys” and making bold predictions for the Combine. I love taking in this information, as it gives me a better idea of how the community views the perceived athleticism and value of the upcoming rookies. We all want our favorite players to do well at the NFL Combine, but does their Combine performance matter? I posted this poll a little while ago to get a better idea on the community’s feelings towards the Combine.
The results are about what I expected, with more than half of the votes going to “YES”.
Let’s dig into this a little more to get an in-depth understanding of the importance of the NFL Combine.
For this experiment, I will be only addressing WRs as I have the most data on them.
I am going to dive right into the measurables. I have compiled the measurables of the Top 12 PPR WRs from the past three years, and here are the results for the Combine events with enough data to be accurate and useful:
[exceltable id=’74057′]
That looks like a relatively un-athletic player to me… Not super big, not a true “burner”, and a decent jumper. When it comes to measurables and athletic testing you could say the average WR1 is pretty….. well…. “Average”.
You could even make the point that being a slower WR makes you a target and reception hog. Out of the Top 10 WRs in receptions last year, six of them were a good bit below the 4.53-sec. 40-yard time:
[exceltable id=’74059′]
The argument could be made that the players above have limited deep speed and are therefore kept by the line of scrimmage for short passes, limiting their upside. However, the Air Yards data over at airyards.com says otherwise. This past season, Robinson was sixth, Hopkins was 10th, Allen was 11th, and Thomas was 13th in Air Yards. For added context, if you take the average 40-yard dash time of the Top 16 in Air Yards in 2019, you have an average of 4.50, 55th percentile, slightly better than the 4.53 average from the WR1s of the past 3 years. I am providing this data to say that you don’t need to run a 4.3 or even a 4.4 to be targeted downfield. I am not going to say that the 40-yard dash is not important and you should just throw that number out the window, but I am saying that it is being overhyped by the media. Those 4.5 guys are pretty darn good…
So, should we be concerned that Antonio Gandy-Golden ran a 4.60, Isaiah Hodgins a 4.61, Laviska Shenault a 4.58 and Quintez Cephus a 4.73 or that Tee Higgins didn’t run at all? Maybe, is the answer. I will tell you why here shortly.
When it comes to athletic testing at the Combine and their correlation to NFL success, Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) has collected some excellent data.
There is essentially no correlation between strong Combine numbers and fantasy production, so do not freak out just yet if your favorite WR prospect tanked the Combine.
Getting back to the average WR1 measurable, there is only one measurement that is above the 70th percentile, and that is Hand Size at 75%. Do you know what they say about big hands?? It makes catching the ball easier, and that’s pretty important for a WR. So is hand size the only thing that matters for WRs at the Combine? No, but it is absolutely a “Box” I want players to check. A hand size under 9” and your overall grade in my model will take a slight tumble.
It is now time for me to outright answer the question proposed here: Does the NFL Combine REALLY matter?
Although the data I presented above may lead you to believe athletic testing is useless as a way to predict success, the Combine as a whole is very important. Every year players see their draft stock rise and fall based on their performance, and for that very season, YES, the NFL Combine does matter because draft capital matters. Addison Hayes (@amazehayes_) provides incredible data on draft capital.
Now looping back to Antonio Gandy-Golden, Isaiah Hodgins, Quintez Cephus, and Laviska Shenault. Their less than ideal Combine performances will only truly matter if it causes their stock to fall, and they are not drafted within the first three rounds of the NFL Draft, so only time will tell for their fates. Players like Keenan Allen, Jarvis Landry, and Cooper Kupp all performed poorly in their athletic testing, but teams believed in them enough to spend Day Two draft capital on them, setting them up for immediate success in the NFL.
On the flip side, players like Chase Claypool and Denzel Mims will now probably see their likelihood for success increase, as Claypool may sneak into Day 2 of the Draft, and Mims may now land in Round 1. Draft capital should be seen as a confidence rating. The higher a player is drafted, the more confidence the team drafting them has in their success, thus leading to that player seeing more meaningful time on the field.
In conclusion, although the testing numbers at the NFL Combine do not have a strong correlation to fantasy success, the Combine does still very much matter. It matters for one simple reason, and that reason is draft capital. Draft capital is a crucial piece in the puzzle when it comes to predicting fantasy success.
Higher Draft Capital = Higher Likelihood of Success.
Thanks for reading this article! You can follow me on Twitter @RookieWhisper for more content.
