We all know the first rule of dynasty strategy. Successful owners find continued success because they are able to thread the needle of turning aging talent into young players and/or rookie picks. Julian Edelman is certainly a name owners are looking to sell as he enters his last year under contract, and possibly the end of his career. If you’re a team in contention, should the first rule apply, or should you be digging for Jules?
In my core dynasty league I traded for Julian Edelman in 2018 after his first game back from suspension. It cost me Ian Thomas, Ito Smith and a late 2019 second round pick, so basically nothing. Edelman was brought in to be a WR4 behind Michael Thomas, Adam Thielen and Robert Woods. This context will be important for later.
Year in and out, in dynasty and redraft, Edelman always seems to be underrated. He is a reliable, sure handed receiver on a team that, 2019 excluded, usually has a top offense. He is a career fantasy WR2, with flashes of WR1 brilliance. Since taking over for Wes Welker in the slot, Edelman has eclipsed 900 yards and 90 receptions, four times. In that time, Edelman has had four WR2 finishes, and one WR1 finish according to FantasyData. The only years he did not finish as a WR2 or higher was 2015 and 2017, both injury plagued campaigns.
Edelman is a tried and true WR2 with upside. For those concerned that his success is only because of Brady, we unfortunately only have limited sample size to combat that. The only data available is the four games Brady missed in 2016. We don’t need to rehash the events of Deflategate, or dive into how it basically serves as an NFL allegory for Atlas Shrugged, as mediocre NFL teams (staring right at you Jerry Jones) tried to get ahead by tearing down their competition rather than making themselves better. Or that it serves as a cautionary tale for our time when people are willing to disregard science and fact to fit their preferred narrative. But that’s a story for another day.
Disclaimer: I am clearly a Patriots fan.
Back to the numbers. In those four games without Brady, Edelman posted stat lines of 7 receptions on 7 targets for 66 yards; and 7 receptions on 11 targets for 76 yards with Jimmy Garoppolo. Those numbers are serviceable, and over a season would probably project to have been about 100 receptions, 950 yards and 4 touchdowns. This lands him squarely in WR2 territory still. Under Brissett, the offense was a mess and didn’t provide much useful data.
Point being, from what we saw of Edelman-Garoppolo, and what we’ve seen of Garoppolo since (58.8 QBR in 2019), it is reasonable to draw the conclusion that Edelman is still a WR2 with any serviceable pivot under center.
I believe that there is another possibility for Edelman should Brady leave. To me, it doesn’t seem outside the realm of possibility that wherever Brady goes, Edelman follows. Outside the money, bonuses and promises to his sideline witch-doctor; offering to also bring Brady’s favorite receiver on board could be a great incentive.
Brady is out in New England. The dynasty is dead. He has signed with the Buccaneers. Chris Godwin ran a majority of his routes out of slot last year, but is versatile enough to play all over the field. Is there space for Edelman? The wide receiver corps behind Evans and Godwin is a who’s who of nobodies. Edelman is under contract with a $6.6 million cap hit, and historical wide receiver trades usually involve first or second round picks, unless you’re Bill O’Brien. But Edelman is at the end of his road, so that pick would certainly be lower as he is essentially a “rental”. The Bucs have four picks in the first four rounds to use. More importantly, they also have $60 million in cap space, per Over The Cap. The Bucs made a sizable investment in Brady. Would they be willing to bring in Edelman to make his transition more comfortable? For the production he puts up with Brady, and to bolster their depth chart, I would certainly say so.
Remember the context from before? The part that I told you would be important in all my rambling? Well here it comes. In my core league, I haven’t been able to trade Edelman straight up for anything worthwhile to me. Conventional dynasty thinking clearly states that I should move him for whatever I can get. But so far, whatever I can get hasn’t seemed worth it, even if my team doesn’t technically need him. Sure I could package him up, but there isn’t a lot else I want to move from my roster. My hope was for an early second to land a new receiver, but no dice. A second year player off a bad rookie season? Nada. Another veteran that isn’t quite as old at a different position? Bupkis. The only traction I got was a late second round pick. Hit rates on rookies in the late second round are very slim, and almost non-existent beyond that. In my mind, I was better off riding and dying with Edelman through his likely last year than sending him off for a long shot return.
Not convinced? According to FantasyFootballCalulator.com, the three players that went in the last three picks of Round 2 in 2019 Daniel Jones, Preston Williams and Darwin Thompson. Jones was a mercurial pick that initially caused the city of New York to call for GM Dave Gettleman’s head. In fairness, he did show some flash once he actually started, but was very turnover happy. And if you’re a team thinking about pulling the trigger on Edelman, you probably already have a quarterback and could afford passing on Jones. Williams quietly broke through before an ACL tear early last season. But the rest of Miami’s season also saw TE Mike Gesicki take a step forward and Devante Parker finally arrive. Williams is worth a look next year, but targets in that offense are wildly unpredictable, and they could look to build further in the draft. Thompson had all the preseason buzz. Dynasty players were drooling when he landed in KC. But he saw relatively no action last year, and Damien Williams will block his path again this year. He was also only a sixth round pick, Andy Reid invested little capital to get him, I wouldn’t be surprised if he takes another back in the draft this year. While all these picks have some upside, they also carry higher risk. What would you rather have, dear reader, a championship run now with a vet on the 18th hole, or a whisper of a promising receiver/quarterback; or a replaceable running back?
So I began to think of it the other way. If I can’t sell Edelman for anything, the inverse must mean that you can buy him for nothing. The only offer was one owner willing to offer a late second round pick. Clicking around online, I’ve seen other posted trades reflecting the same. Late second, early third round picks this year; or 2021 third round picks.
Conclusions
So what did we learn today? Edelman, despite being 34 years old this season, is still viable. Whether he is with Brady, another quarterback, or on another team; he can still potentially be a WR2. Edelman owners might be sweating having an aged receiver on their roster that doesn’t have a quarterback. Capitalize on that fear. If you’re a contending team, throw them a third round pick this year, and/or a 2021 third round pick to land a probable WR2 to bolster your team for a run. Statistically, those picks aren’t worth much. The risk is certainly worth the reward. You’re essentially paying with funny-money. By making the move now, you can buy Edelman at a low price, and get ahead of a possible (though probably small) bidding war of contending teams looking for any spare pieces heading into the playoffs.
While you’ll see essentially zero return on your Edelman investment after 2020, securing an overlooked WR2 for nothing could be just the move to capture a championship.
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