Dynasty

Rookie WR Hits & Misses Part 1

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

Now, we’re on to part four of this seven-part series about the 2019 rookies. Previously, I’ve talked about QBs, RBs part 1, and RBs part 2. Now, it’s time to get into the wide receivers, which I will split into three parts. There are simply so many receivers that either had high rookie draft capital or achieved fantasy relevance in 2019. For part one, I’ll take a look at four receivers that were all first-round picks in a majority of rookie drafts. These are my rankings from late May 2019:

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Worst RB Landing Spots: 2020 NFL Draft

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The 2020 running back class appears to be deep and filled with talent. David Montgomery may not even make a top-five list among players like D’andre Swift, J.K. Dobbins, Jonathan Taylor, Cam Akers, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and the list could go on. We love watching these guys in the combine and get excited about the NFL Draft. What we don’t want is for any of them to end up of the following teams. 

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Rookie RB Hits and Misses: Part 2

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Ingram led the way with 202 carries, with Edwards in second with 133 carries. Hill lagged with just 58 carries. Hill also only had eight receptions in all of 2019, a major disappointment for a player with highly touted passing-game skills. Edwards, who has almost no pass-catching ability, finished with seven receptions, just one less than Hill. Hill played in all 16 games, so his poor stats were not due to injury. He also played on only 17% of offensive snaps.

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Dead to Me

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Year after year you get your hopes up just to be let down by inconsistent, underwhelming, and untimely performances. These guys are only hot when they burn you, otherwise, their fantasy production is as cold as ice

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Rookie QB Hits and Misses

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

This series will look back on the 2019 class and explore the biggest hits and misses. Now, since this will be a long series, let’s start with the premise here in part one. For each position, I will examine all the rookies that were selected in a significant number of rookie drafts, or achieved significant production at that position. A hit will generally be a player that produced fantasy points in year one and gained or at least maintained their dynasty value. A miss will be players who didn’t produce or at least who underperformed. I will also have a third category; incomplete. In this category, I’ll discuss those players who did not receive significant playing time and where they can go in 2020 and beyond.

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Prediction: Combine Risers

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Listed at 6’4 220 pounds, Cole McDonald looks like an NFL talent. McDonald has a rocket of an arm and moves very well for his size. As a two year starter at Hawaii, the gunslinger threw for 8,010 yards and 69 touchdowns. Although putting up video game numbers, McDonald is considered a day 3 prospect by most. This is likely due to a funky throwing motion and less than desirable completion percentage of 61.4. However, with a strong performance in Indianapolis, I believe Cole McDonald can make his way into the Day 2 decision. To do this, he will need to run a good 40 time and show off his arm talent. 

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The Untradeables

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Julio Jones is only untradable due to age. That’s the only reasonable excuse to not give proper value for a receiver who consistently a top-five or 10 fantasy player in his position. Jones finished 2019 as the WR4 with 99 receptions for 1,394 yards and six touchdowns. 

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Buy, Sell, or Hold: Rookie Running Back Edition

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Buy: Anthony McFarland
When a 4-star running back comes into college with 20+ offers, he definitely does not go unnoticed, but due to the laughing stock that was this Maryland football team in 2019, Anthony McFarland seems to be forgotten. McFarland’s data does not pop off the page as he only had two years of experience, but while watching the film he looks to be one of the best backs in this class.

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Quarterbacks: Rightfully Untouched by the BMI Hysteria

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Historically, there has been a strong narrative in the football community about QB size despite players like Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray balling out on Sundays. The QB size debate begins with how tall a QB is and if it affects their ability to make reads of the defense on passing plays. There has been a lot of discussion around QB hand size and its correlation to QB performance in cold-weather games. Analysts have even studied QB weight and how it translates to their durability in the NFL. So I decided to use my newly released college prospect database and explore BMI and QB performance. Before going any further, there needs to be a brief overview of BMI. BMI compares an individual’s weight to their height and it’s used to describe their level of body fat or thickness. The index was derived from the works of the Belgian thinker, Adolphe Quetelet.

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Sophomore Breakout Series: WR

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While most look towards the incoming rookie classes, I like to look at players that are already showing signs of production in the league. We’ve all had those rookies that didn’t pan out, and maybe you cut bait on them a little early, only to see them become a valuable asset later on. This series will attempt to identify those players.

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2019 Fake Outs

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In this piece, I’ll walk you through three “fake-outs.” These are players that broke out or had strong seasons in 2019 that I do not expect to maintain that level of performance going forward. Therefore, you could call each of these guys a dynasty “sell-high.”

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Restricted Free Agents: WR Dynasty Sleepers

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Free Agency is fun but often the RFA’s are overlooked, not only by NFL teams but by fantasy owners as these situations are fluid and could change the overall perspective and value on these players in a second. The free agent class is very top-heavy and drops off steadily however there is some value in the RFA pool this year that fantasy owners should look to acquire or pickup before their situations get even better.

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Worst Landing Spots: WR 2020 NFL Draft

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

The Bears were the epitome of average in 2019, finishing the season a mediocre 8-8. They had a lot of issues but wide receivers weren’t one of them., As a matter of fact, their issues were more so on the quarterback. Mitch Trubisky is not very good, but his receivers are. Chicago already has plenty of talented young pass-catchers in Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller, and adequate receivers in Taylor Gabriel and Javon Wims.

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Connor’s Fantasy Awards

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Cornerback is usually the worst defensive position in fantasy football, yet Ryan was the highest-scoring non-linebacker in 2019. As the 8th ranked IDP player according to FantasyPros, Ryan was the only non-linebacker in the top-10. Ryan is also one of only three non-linebackers in the top-20 IDP players this season, both of the others being safeties. If you want to go down to where Humphrey is, you’d have to go all the way down to 51st. In other words, when it comes to cornerbacks, Ryan was in a class of his own this season.

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