Dynasty

Jayden Daniels

High School Recruiting Stars vs. NFL Draft Capital: What Actually Matters for Dynasty Fantasy Football

Dynasty / By /

The goal of this article is to determine whether 4- and 5-star players are the ones we should be targeting each year in our drafts. On average, there are about 22 4+ stars each year for the quarterback position. I wanted to look at the current landscape of the top 24 quarterbacks on KeepTradeCut to see what they were rated when they came out of high school. The high school star rating is from 247Sports.

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koziol

Late Round Dynasty Rookie Draft Gems

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

Eli Heidenreich is an off-the-radar player from Navy who played in one of the most unique offensive systems in college football, notorious for amplifying a singular player’s productivity. 

Heidenreich has some eye-popping analytics. Yards per route run is one of the strongest singular predictors of future fantasy production. On its own, YPRR carries a 0.43 correlation when using current-year data to project next year’s performance. Heidenreich’s 4.73 yards per route run is easily tops in this class, well above the wide receivers who were selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. 

His draft capital was poor. But he was drafted. And his Pittsburgh landing spot was pretty solid. Kenneth Gainwell was the RB 20 overall in fantasy points per game last year.  Heidenreich has a shot at a similar role eventually.

Steelers beat writer, Mark Kaboly, posted on X, “ I am not saying that Eli Heidenreich should even be mentioned in the same breath as Christian McCaffrey because C-Mac is elite and a different breed … but you can’t help but notice similarities in how they move around a football field. (yeah, this is going to be taken out of context, oh well).”

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joly

My Top-Owned Dynasty Rookies

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

This weekend, we wrapped up my final dynasty rookie draft of the offseason (outside of my home dynasty league, which drafts during the preseason). With rookies now rostered in 17 of my 18 leagues, I thought it was a good time to discuss my top-owned dynasty rookies. 

Using the “exposure” feature in the Dynasty Control Room, I’m able to see my ownership percentage of every single fantasy player. Being a “portfolio manager” in 18 leagues, this feature is especially useful, showing me who I need to invest more heavily in, as well as the guys I should look to lower my exposure on. The tool also shows you which players DFF expert consensus is above and below market on, to give you an idea of whether you’re investing in the right players. 

With that, let’s take a look at my top 5 most-owned rookies right now. 

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jefferson

Which Wide Receivers Can Average 17+ FPPG in 2026?

Dynasty / By /

The goal of this article is to determine the makeup of an elite fantasy football wide receiver. I am looking for wide receivers who average more than 17+ PPR a game, which is about the top 8 each year.

Since 2010, we have had 32 wide receivers with multiple seasons of 17+ PPR. These quarterbacks have accounted for 111 of 138 seasons since 2010. We have had 27 wide receivers only do it once so far. Some of those guys that are still playing and could join the list of 32 are:

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herbert

Which Quarterbacks Can Average 20+ FPPG in 2026?

Dynasty / By /

The goal of this article is to find what the makeup of an elite fantasy football quarterback is. I am looking for quarterbacks who score 20+ PPR a game, which is about the top 6 each year.

Since 2010, we have had 17 quarterbacks with multiple seasons of 20+ PPR. These quarterbacks make up 71/80 seasons since 2010. We have had 9 quarterbacks only do it once so far. Some of those guys that are still playing and could join the list of 17 are: Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, and Baker Mayfield.

Now, the list of 17 quarterbacks who have been elite since 2010.

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rome

Best Dynasty Value for Each NFC North & South Team

Dynasty / By /

*To gauge market value, positional rankings in this article were pulled from FantasyPros’ Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR)*

NFC North

Chicago Bears – Rome Odunze (WR25)

Everyone seems to have forgotten how electric Rome Odunze was in the Bears’ first four games last season. He had four top-20 finishes and averaged 19.9 fantasy points per game during that span. Sadly, his season was later derailed by a foot sprain, and he never looked like quite the same player after that. 

Hot finishes from Luther Burden and Colston Loveland to end the 2025 season have created a nice buy window for Odunze. Let’s not forget, this is a young player (23) who was a top-10 draft pick just two years ago. With D.J. Moore now in Buffalo, a healthy Odunze has a chance to become Caleb Williams’ top target earner going forward.

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rice

Using Redraft to Improve Your Dynasty Team: Vol. 3

Dynasty, Strategy Content / By /

This is one of my favorite series to write every offseason. If you’re new here, the concept is simple: even though redraft and dynasty are two completely different games, there’s still a ton of value in holding them up side by side. If a player is being drafted heavily in redraft but is dirt cheap in dynasty, that’s the market telling you something. And if a veteran player is propped up in dynasty but the redraft market has moved on, that’s your cue to sell while you still can. 

Underdog ADP is about as sharp as it gets in the fantasy space, since every contest has real money on the line, hundreds of thousands of teams are drafted each year, and the ADP updates constantly. When that many people are putting dollars behind their opinions, you pay attention. So while dynasty managers are thinking three years down the road, we can use that redraft signal to find guys who are undervalued right now and identify the ones you should already be moving while their value is still inflated

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loveland

Building My Dynasty: A Full Startup Draft Breakdown

Dynasty / By /

In today’s article, I’m breaking down my most recent dynasty startup draft, covering everything from my draft strategy to player values and roster construction. The goal is to leave you with a few ideas you can take into your own startup drafts this offseason. In this particular draft, I was able to construct a team I believe can compete in Year 1 while being built for long-term dominance. With the help of the DFF Dynasty Control Room, I was able to maximize value by reviewing consensus big boards and checking “top players available” with every pick. According to DFF consensus, it paid off, as I finished with the best draft class in the league.

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stewart

“Colossus Jr.” 2026 Final Rookie RB1 Analytical Model Rankings

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

After years of proven success with my WR1 Analytical Model outperforming NFL Draft Capital at predicting future fantasy success of rookie wide receiver prospects, I unveiled the RB1 Analytical Model last year.  Similar to my long-running WR1 model, which you can find here, this RB1 model was developed using a recipe of the most predictive advanced college statistics that prior NFL fantasy superstars exhibited. 

The goal of these analytical models is to outperform draft capital, as it should. After all, fantasy managers are trying to accumulate the most fantasy points. NFL teams are trying to win football games. For example, in 2024, Bucky Irving and Tyrone Tracy were drafted 6th and 12th in the NFL draft among running backs. The model ranked them 4th and 6th, respectively. 

You can find last year’s 2025 RB1 post-draft published model here. Our model was largely in line with draft capital, with 7 of the first 8 players selected in the NFL draft also in the model’s top 7. A big outlier came a little later. Our model ranked Jacory Croskey-Merritt 11th overall, despite the NFL drafting him 26th among all running backs. 

Now on to the 2026 class. 

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stribling

“Colossus” 2026 Final Rookie WR1 Analytical Model Rankings

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

The Prospect Analytical Model Rankings are one of our members’ favorite series each year at Dynasty Football Factory. Years of refining and enhancing the models to accurately predict future fantasy value have brought us to today. 

This article covers the final post-NFL Draft analytical model rankings for the wide receiver position. These WR1 model rankings will be your ultimate guide to predicting which prospects will produce the most fantasy points in their NFL career.

You can find the running back RB1 model here.

For those new to the WR1 rating, it is a proprietary formula I developed in 2019 that provides a data-driven forecast of future fantasy production for incoming rookie wide receivers. There are many advanced metrics available today; we at DFF know it can be difficult to determine which ones matter and how much each matters. The WR1 model distills all that hard work into a single, easy-to-understand number. The model evaluates rookies across 13 of the most predictive metrics and combines their individual metric scores into a total WR1 rating. It was a pioneer in the fantasy analysis industry, being the first to incorporate a film-grade into the model. The goal is to provide an easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend hundreds of hours dissecting different metrics. Based on the prospect’s model score, I provide their probability of achieving at least one top-24 NFL Fantasy Points Per Game Season, using historical prospects with similar score ranges.

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kylepitts

Best and Worst Picks in Dynasty Startup Drafts: Rounds 5-8

Dynasty / By /

I’m bananas for Burden. This is about the area I like to start swinging for upside, and Luther Burden has it in droves. He finished his rookie year on a strong note and ended up with 652 receiving yards and two scores on 47 receptions. But it’s the underlying metrics that get me all hot and bothered: WR2 in target separation (2.62), WR3 in yards per route run (2.79), and WR4 in QB Rating per target (123.1). With D.J. Moore now in Buffalo, Burden is set to take on a larger role in Ben Johnson’s offense going into Year 2. 

Fade: Quinshon Judkins (RB – CLE)

There’s a lot to like about Quinshon Judkins; I just wish he wasn’t in such a bad situation and coming off serious leg injuries. He broke his fibula and dislocated his ankle in his right leg late in December. That’s a tough thing to come back from, even at 22 years old. He’ll be fine eventually, but even before that, he only averaged 3.6 yards per carry behind a piss poor Cleveland offensive line. His 12.1 fantasy points per game were only good for RB25. Maybe in Round 6 or 7, I can talk myself into it. But in the fifth round, I want a rock-solid back I can feel good about. I don’t get that feeling with Judkins.

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mcmillan

Best and Worst Picks in Dynasty Startup Drafts: Rounds 1-4

Dynasty / By /

Fresh off winning Offensive Player of the Year after a brilliant 2025 campaign, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the perfect cornerstone to build your dynasty team around. He only recently turned 24 years old and has been as durable as they come, never missing a game in his three-year career thus far. With back-to-back seasons of over 100 catches, JSN is the focal point of Seattle’s offense and should continue to be for years to come. He’s an easy click in Round 1 if I have the chance to draft him. 

Fade: Joe Burrow (QB – CIN)

Older than you might think, Joe Burrow will turn 30 before the 2026 season concludes. And while he’s not an immobile statue in the pocket, he really doesn’t add much fantasy production with his legs. For him to pay off first round draft capital, Joe Brrr needs to have extreme outlier seasons in the passing department. He’s capable of it — like in 2024 when he threw for 4,913 yards and 43 scores — but he’s also missed substantial time in three of his six pro seasons and remains an injury risk. 

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simpson

Projecting Quarterback Success for Dynasty

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

I am trying to help us find ways to avoid the bust at quarterback, especially in rookie drafts. This is the cheapest most of these quarterbacks will ever be, but if you miss on one and spend a first-round pick on them, it could set you back even further.

I am looking at quarterbacks drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft and breaking them down into 4 tiers from 2015 to 2025.

I call the 1st tier the “green tier”. These are the quarterbacks who score a 90 or higher in my model and went to a Power 5 school. My model includes a film grade from Lance Zierlein, fantasy points per game in college, and their passing touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio.

There have been 37 quarterbacks drafted since 2015 in the first round, but only 13 ended up in tier 1, the green tier.

Below are the names of those 13 guys.

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