Rookie RB Hits and Misses: Part 2

In part 1 of this article, found here, I took a look at the top four rookie running backs from 2019 dynasty rookie drafts. These four running backs generally went in the second round of rookie drafts. These rankings are from my rankings from back in late May or early June. The rankings assume a 1 QB, PPR dynasty format.

Hits

Devin Singletary

Singletary is the definite hit in this group of players. The Bills chose Singletary in the third round with the 74th overall selection. At the time of rookie drafts, the Bills backfield was a crowded group. They had incumbent starter LeSean McCoy, free agent-signings T.J. Yeldon and Frank Gore, and Singletary. Because of his backfield competition, Singletary fell to the mid-2nd round in most rookie drafts. Most dynasty owners expected him to open the season with a role but did not expect him to contribute significantly in 2019.

However, on August 31st, right before the season was about to start, the Bills cut McCoy. McCoy had been the starter throughout the entire offseason, so this was a somewhat surprising move. With McCoy gone, Gore slotted in as the early-down starter, with Yeldon mixing in for third-down work and Singletary as a change-of-pace back. Singletary exceeded even those expectations. In Weeks 1 and 2, Yeldon recorded no offensive stats, essentially losing his expected role in the offense. While Singletary had just 10 carries in the first two games, he totaled 127 yards and a touchdown on those carries. He also added five receptions for 28 yards. Gore’s 30 carries significantly outpaced Singletary’s work, but it was clear that Singletary was a star in the making.

Unfortunately for Singletary, he suffered an injury near the end of that Week 2 game. Singletary missed Weeks 3-5 and returned after the Bills’ Week 6 bye. Once Singletary returned, Yeldon was rendered completely irrelevant, only suiting up for the Bills’ meaningless week 17 matchup. This decision left a committee between just Gore and Singletary. In Weeks 7-8, Singletary was eased back into action, receiving only seven and three carries. In Week 9, though, Singletary took command of the backfield, taking 20 carries to Gore’s 11. Even though Gore and Singletary returned to an even split in Week 10, Singletary became the true workhorse in Week 11. In Weeks 11-16, Singletary out-touched Gore in every game and had at least 14 carries in each contest.

Going forward, Gore will likely leave Buffalo, and Singletary will be the clear lead back. While the Bills could bring in a complement to Singletary, I believe Singletary demonstrated that he can lead the backfield in 2020 and beyond. Given his mid-2nd rookie draft cost, he is a smash hit for dynasty owners. I currently rank him as my RB14 and as the 47th player overall. While at least three rookie running backs will likely pass Singletary, that still leaves him as a mid-RB2. You can’t ask for more from a mid-2nd rounder.

Alexander Mattison

It might seem odd to call Mattison a hit. The Vikings selected him with the 102nd overall pick in the third round. The Vikings picked him to be the primary backup to Dalvin Cook, and fantasy owners generally valued him as a high-priority handcuff. Therefore, he usually went in the late-2nd of most dynasty rookie drafts, behind the other running backs listed.

Mattison didn’t have much fantasy value in 2019. He took 100 carries for 462 yards and a touchdown in 13 games played. He also chipped in 10 receptions on 12 targets for 82 yards. This production made him the RB61. He wasn’t a valuable fantasy asset, but he was a typical bench stash in both redraft and dynasty formats for his upside.

So then why is Mattison a hit? First, he displayed talent as the primary backup to Cook. If Mattison had not gotten injured near the end of the season, I wholeheartedly believe he would have stepped in and excelled when Cook went down for Weeks 16 and 17. Second, there is some discussion that Cook could hold out entering his contract year in 2020. If that happens, Mattison would immediately spike in dynasty value. Finally, Mattison’s value has increased in my view since the 2019 rookie season. I value him around the 2.08 or 20th overall, which is a three-spot increase since 2019. He hasn’t been a tremendous success, but he’s a small hit.

Misses

Damien Harris

Similar to Mattison, Harris was a third-round pick. He went to the Patriots with the 87th overall pick. Also, like Mattison, Harris was drafted to back up incumbent starter Sony Michel. However, unlike Mattison, some believed that Harris could overtake Michel as the Patriots’ starting running back. While James White has been omnipresent for years on passing downs, there is always a first and second down grinder role in the Patriots’ offense. Harris was supposed to compete with Michel for that role.

Instead, Harris appeared in just one game, recording four carries for 12 yards in garbage time. Harris was, in fact, only even active for two of the Patriots’ 16 games, despite being healthy for most of the season. Michel, White, and even Rex Burkhead received playing time ahead of Harris. Even journeyman Brandon Bolden got 15 carries compared to Harris’ four. There isn’t much else to say about Harris’ 2019 season. He failed to get on the field, despite Michel’s mediocre performance. He was a complete bust in 2019.

Looking ahead to 2020, I haven’t entirely given up on Harris. The Patriots could save $3.5 million by cutting White and $2.9 million by cutting Burkhead. I expect the Patriots to cut Burkhead but keep White. Therefore, Harris could at least step into Burkhead’s change of pace role. I still value Harris at an early to mid 3rd round pick, around the 3.03 or 3.04 in this year’s rookie draft. But that means that he has lost significant value since 2019. If he doesn’t get an opportunity early in 2020, I’ll probably give up on Harris.

Justice Hill

Like Harris, most dynasty owners expected Hill to have a significant role in the 2019 season. After being drafted with the 113th overall pick in the fourth round by the Ravens, Hill was supposed to fill the third-down and hybrid role behind starting running back Mark Ingram. Additionally, most dynasty players expected 2018 UDFA sensation, Gus Edwards, to become irrelevant after Hill’s selection.

Unfortunately for Hill, that did not happen. 00

Looking forward to 2020, Hill’s situation remains murky. The Ravens’ only three significant running backs will all almost certainly return. Ingram is under contract for just $5.3 million, a bargain for a running back of his caliber. Edwards is an exclusive-rights free agent, which means that the Ravens can essentially retain his services on a near-minimum deal. Considering that Edwards averaged 5.3 yards a carry in 2019, I expect the Ravens to keep him at that low cost. Therefore, Hill will once again fight against the same backfield competition in 2020.

Luckily, I don’t expect the Ravens to invest further at the running back position, so there will likely be no newcomers to battle. I haven’t completely given up on Hill and value him as a late-2nd in rookie drafts. He hasn’t lost much value since the 2019 rookie season, but I would still call him a miss due to his lack of production and uncertain future outlook.

Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Justin. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.