This series will look back on the 2019 class and explore the biggest hits and misses. Now, since this will be a long series, let’s start with the premise here in part one. For each position, I will examine all the rookies that were selected in a significant number of rookie drafts, or achieved significant production at that position. A hit will generally be a player that produced fantasy points in year one and gained or at least maintained their dynasty value. A miss will be players who didn’t produce or at least who underperformed. I will also have a third category; incomplete. In this category, I’ll discuss those players who did not receive significant playing time and where they can go in 2020 and beyond.
Let’s start with the quarterbacks, sorted by their consensus rookie rank from my June 2019 rookie ranks. Since it’s the quarterback position, I’ll be focusing on the superflex format, as quarterbacks are far more critical in that format than they are in 1QB leagues. Fantasy scoring and finishes are based on 4-points per passing touchdown.
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Hits
Kyler Murray
Murray is a hit. He produced a QB1 season in both total finish and points per game. He did so behind a terrible offensive line and without great receiving weapons. He rushed 93 times for 544 yards and four touchdowns, so he did produce as predicted on the ground. He only threw 20 passing touchdowns, so there is plenty of room for growth going forward.
I currently rank Murray as my QB4 overall in dynasty formats, behind just Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Deshaun Watson. I think that’s a fair price for his upside. Even though he was the clear 1.01 in superflex rookie drafts, his overall value has increased since then. He was considered a mid to low-end QB1 coming into the NFL, and now most value him as a high-end QB1 in dynasty. If the Cardinals further upgrade the receiving weapons and offensive line, Murray could take a year two leap similar to what Lamar Jackson did in 2019. He could improve his rushing numbers and touchdown rate and jump into the high-end QB1 range in 2020 fantasy formats.
Daniel Jones
The Giants selected Jones with the sixth overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. Despite having high draft capital, he was mostly ignored by dynasty owners, with Dwayne Haskins preferred as the rookie QB2. In some cases, Drew Lock also went before Jones, with both players valued around the turn of the first round in superflex rookie drafts.
However, despite this lack of confidence from dynasty owners, Jones had a solid rookie season. He finished 11th in points per game among quarterbacks in 13 games started. Even with injuries to Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram, and Sterling Shepard, Jones still managed to succeed. He threw 24 touchdowns compared to just 12 interceptions and passed for over 3,000 yards in his starts. He also contributed on the ground, with 45 carries for 279 yards and two rushing touchdowns. His main issues were sacks and fumbles. He was sacked 38 times and fumbled 18 times. He needs to work on that going forward, but his mobility should allow him to reduce sacks.
Going into 2020, I have Jones as my QB14. For reference, those rankings include 2020 rookies Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa, both of whom I’d still value over Jones. With that said, Jones is a high-end QB2 according to my rankings. Given that he only cost a late first-round rookie pick in 2019 superflex rookie drafts, that is a smash hit. His current value is probably the best-case scenario so far, and that’s always what you want from a rookie draft selection.
Gardner Minshew
Given that Minshew was a sixth-round pick and was entirely off the radar in dynasty rookie drafts, he’s a massive hit. Presumptive starter Nick Foles suffered a broken collarbone in Week 1, and Minshew replaced him. Minshew then started Week’s 2-9 before the Jaguars returned to Foles after their Week 10 bye. Foles started in Week’s 11-13, but the Jaguars switched back to Minshew in the middle of Week 13. Minshew then started the final four games of the 2019 season. Minshew only finished as the QB21 and the QB20 in points per game, but considering his draft cost, that’s a massive value.
Even though his fantasy stats weren’t the best, he was still a solid real-life quarterback in 2019. He threw 21 touchdowns compared to just six interceptions. His completion percentage of 60.6% ranked 29th among starting quarterbacks, but he did manage to throw for 3,271 passing yards in only 14 games and 12 starts. He also added significant value with his legs, taking 67 carries for 344 yards. The entire Jacksonville offense was subject to a bizarre variance in rushing touchdowns, as they only scored three as a team. If Minshew remains Jacksonville’s 2020 starter, his rushing ability should lead him to score a few rushing touchdowns in 2020, which will help both his fantasy and real-life value.
Considering how rare it is to find a starting quarterback off the rookie draft radar, Minshew is a hit.
Misses
Dwayne Haskins
While it might seem harsh to call Haskins a miss after just one season, his season was so bad that I find it warranted to call him a miss. He finished as the QB37 in points per game, so that means that 36 quarterbacks averaged more fantasy points than Haskins while playing five or more games. Haskins played in nine games and started seven of them. He was horrific in those contests, throwing just seven touchdowns and seven interceptions while completing just 58.6% of his passes. He only added 20 carries for 101 yards while taking 29 sacks, so he didn’t provide much value to fantasy owners or the Redskins with his mobility either.
Haskins was a part of the second tier in superflex rookie drafts behind Kyler Murray. Four other players: N’Keal Harry, Josh Jacobs, Miles Sanders, and David Montgomery were in the second tier with Haskins. That means that anyone who drafted Haskins spent at least the 1.06 rookie pick on him, and some spent as high as the 1.02 selection. With that kind of investment, fantasy owners were expecting to see more in Haskins’ rookie year.
Considering the Redskins only invested the 15th pick in the 2019 NFL Draft on Haskins, they could potentially move on from him sooner rather than later. If Alex Smith is healthy and starts Week 1 for the Redskins in 2020, I would not be surprised at all. Also, if Tua Tagovailoa is healthy, the Redskins could decide to select him with the second overall pick in this year’s draft, similar to what the Cardinals did in 2019 with Kyler Murray and Josh Rosen. Either way, I see Haskins as a total bust in the making, and I would advise superflex players to sell their Haskins’ shares right now before they’re completely worthless.
Will Grier
I think we saw enough from Grier to say that he will not be fantasy relevant at any point in his career. Coming into 2019, some people believed that Grier would challenge the injured Cam Newton for the starting job. Not only did that not happen, but when Newton went down with a foot injury, Kyle Allen, not Grier, replaced Newton as the starter. Grier started two games at the end of the season, where he threw four interceptions, took six sacks, and threw no passing touchdowns. Considering that Grier couldn’t beat out the undrafted Allen and only has third-round draft capital, I see no path forward for him. I expect the Panthers to either draft a quarterback with their seventh overall pick or to retain Cam Newton as their starting quarterback. Grier is just a backup and is an easy drop in all 1 QB dynasty formats and even some shallow SF/2QB formats.
Incomplete
Drew Lock
I find it difficult to pass a final judgment on Lock after just five games played. He was a second-round pick in the 2019 NFL Draft and did receive a shot at the starting job. Not every second-round quarterback gets that chance, so that is at least a positive sign. However, Lock was just the QB29 in points per game over the 2019 season. He completed 100 of 156 passes and threw seven touchdowns and three interceptions. According to the Broncos, Lock did enough to enter 2020 as the starting quarterback. Even though he will be the starter to open 2020, his lack of first-round draft capital means that the Broncos are not fully committed to Lock, at least not yet. If he falters in 2020, he could be replaced in 2021 either by a new rookie from the 2021 class or a free agent.
In superflex drafts, Lock usually went around the turn of the first round, so at that price, I think fantasy owners expected to receive an eventual starting quarterback. Since it’s unclear whether Lock will live up to that, he has to receive an incomplete grade.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Justin. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
