The 2020 running back class appears to be deep and filled with talent. David Montgomery may not even make a top-five list among players like D’andre Swift, J.K. Dobbins, Jonathan Taylor, Cam Akers, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and the list could go on. We love watching these guys in the combine and get excited about the NFL Draft. What we don’t want is for any of them to end up of the following teams.
Terms:
Adjusted Line Yards: Average yards the offensive line is responsible for based on all running back carries.
Stuffed Rate: Percentage of runs where the running back is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage
Chicago Bears
One of the main reasons the Bears are such a poor landing spot for a running back is they traded up in the third round last year to select the aforementioned David Montgomery. Montgomery wasn’t anything special, averaging just 1.6 yards after contact, but it wasn’t all his fault. Chicago had one of the worst offensive lines in the league last year. They ranked 29th according to Football Outsiders, averaging just 3.86 adjusted line yards. For reference, the best offensive lines average above 4.5 adjusted line yards. They also allowed pressure at an alarming rate. The Bears line ranked 29th in time to pressure allowed (2.37 seconds). Do you really want a rookie starting his career under those conditions?
The Bears already use multiple running backs with Tarik Cohen being their passing down back and clearly believed in Montgomery enough to spend draft capital to move up and get him. The issue is that they’re in the bottom half of the league in rushing attempts with just 395 carries, adding another back wouldn’t seem to make much sense. Montgomery flashed at times but this class is talented enough to make any team tempted to take a chance. Let’s hope none of these incoming rookies get stuck in this low volume committee rushing attack.
New England Patriots
The Patriots rush the ball plenty (447 attempts) as a team and have a serviceable enough offensive line to be successful on the ground, but that’s not the issue. The Patriots regularly use three or more running backs. We all witnessed it this year with James White, Sony Michel, Rex Burkhead, and you even got a dose of Brandon Bolden at times. It’s a fantasy nightmare. Michel is a former first-round pick on the verge of being labeled a bust. He’s just good enough to keep giving chances but completely useless for fantasy. He averaged just 1.6 yards after contact in 2019 (David Montgomery, cough, cough). New England also drafted Alabama running back Damien Harris who was basically red-shirted his rookie season. We will likely see him emerge as a contender come training camp.
The Patriots backfield is loaded regardless of Sony Michel’s performance. Michel was their lead back and only received 55% of the teams rushing attempts. Could they draft a running back? Of course, but the team has much more pressing needs at wide receiver, tight end, and defensive line. The Pats used to be a dream landing sport for offensive talent, but the last thing you want is one of these young running backs landing in New England purgatory.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals were a complete mess last season which is why they now have the first overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. One of the bright spots was their star running back Joe Mixon. He received 278 carries for 1,137 and five touchdowns. He succeeded once again behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. They accounted for just 3.91 adjusted line yards and had one of the highest stuffed rates in the league (22%). Not only were they unable to gain any yards on their own but they also allowed defenders in the backfield at a high rate. Mixon was fighting an uphill battle in each and every game.
This dynamic illustrates exactly why Cincinnati is such a terrible landing spot for the incoming running back class. Yes, the Bengals are getting former first-round pick, Jonah Williams, back this year, but he’s hasn’t played a down so we have no idea what kind of impact he will or will not have. Let’s focus on what we do know. Cincinnati has an awful offensive line and a workhorse running back. Mixon is just 23 years old and they already have Giovanni Bernard as a backup they are confident in. Trust me, we don’t want these young backs tainted by the 26th ranked offensive line.
New York Giants
The Giants and Bengals are similarly constructed. So much so, the Giants offensive line is ranked 25th, just one spot behind the Bengals. They were also little, to no help to their star running back Saquon Barkley who succeeded in spite of them. Both teams have great running backs and sub-par protection for them. This is not an ideal situation for fantasy and doesn’t quite have room to insert another running back into the equation. Not to mention the Giants somehow finished with the third-fewest rushing attempts in the league last year (362). I was personally shocked to see that considering Barkley is their most talented offensive weapon.
New York would be one of the worst rushing teams in the NFL if they hadn’t drafted a generational talent at the running back position. Barkley has rushed for over 1,000 yards in his first two seasons despite having to do most of it on his own. I don’t think the Giants could support another running back in this low volume rushing offense.
Cleveland Browns
The Browns are a totally different beast altogether. They have a really good offensive line and multiple talented running backs. The Browns averaged 4.8 yards per carry as a team. Nick Chubb looks like the real deal in his second season in the league and Kareem Hunt appeared to be the perfect complement to his more traditional style. Many thought Hunt would be traded or let go in 2020 due to a number of legal issues he’s dealt within the last few years but that’s not the case. The Browns GM, Andrew Berry, recently reported he would place a tender on Hunt.
This means if a team wants Hunt they would have to give Cleveland a draft pick depending on what level tender Berry decides to proceed with. Any rookie running would find themselves stuck behind two proven players under the age of 25. Great running team, horrible landing spot.
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys, led by Ezekial Elliot, have one of the best running attacks in the league. This is one of the main reasons they make this list but not the only. Dallas drafted Tony Pollard in the fourth round of the 2019 draft. Pollard is a dynamic back the Cowboys felt deserved significant touches in his rookie season. He carried the ball 86 times for 455 yards and two touchdowns.
Elliot and the Cowboys recently agreed to a six-year $90 million contract and have a backup they clearly believe in. Another running back in Dallas would be nothing but a luxury and a fantasy disaster.
Minnesota Vikings
Let’s make this one simple. The Vikings have a plethora of talent at the running back position and if they draft another one Dalvin Cook owners heads are going to explode. Last year they muddied the waters by drafting Alexander Mattison but they also have community favorite Mike Boone and fantasy fallout Ameer Abdullah. Minnesota is one of the most potent running teams but there are too many cooks in the kitchen as it is.
Dalvin Cook has missed time with injuries almost every year so the Vikings taking a shot on this deep running back class is conceivable, but that doesn’t this landing spot any better than it is. The Vikings are great and they feed running backs but I doubt anybody wants to see their favorite prospect land in this cluttered backfield.
Thank you for reading. If you have any thoughts or would like to discuss, you can find me on Twitter @WillieBeamanDFF
