nick chubb

Rapid Reaction: Baker Mayfield to the Panthers

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For my money, I think both Mayfield and Darnold are better than people give them credit for. Mayfield is much better, though. He played under incredibly painful and difficult conditions for most of last year with a torn labrum in his left shoulder. People that say “but who cares, it wasn’t his throwing shoulder” are people you shouldn’t listen to. He also showed a lot of improvement the year prior, in my opinion, in a season that included three monsoon-type games. Look at his splits after the weather cleared. He has 92 TDs and 56 INTs in his career so far, compared to 54 and 52, respectively, for Darnold. I think he wins the job easily and I would approach drafts with that assumption.

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2022 Projections: Cleveland Browns

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When we loosely compare players, most people feel they have a good idea of what kind of production to expect. We may think “Deshaun Watson can support two fantasy-relevant WRs along with Chubb being an RB1 and Hunt being an RB2.” But, there may just not be room for that kind of production. I make projections to ground myself and help to understand what is actually possible, probable, or realistic. So, in this series, I will be going through each NFL team and making median projections for their 2022 seasons with their most fantasy-relevant players. I may be able to discern if certain players are being undervalued immediately but in most cases, I will need to finish more teams to get a good idea. 

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Art of Arbitrage: Part 2

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Dynasty fantasy football has often been compared to the stock market. While there are some flaws in this analogy, many of the general principles are the same. We want to “buy low” and “sell high.” We want to diversify our portfolio across multiple leagues to mitigate risk. We want a healthy mixture of upside and safety in our investments. And, we want to look for arbitrage opportunities.

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patriots team needs

Art of Arbitrage

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In financial terms, arbitrage is a complicated concept that involves the simultaneous buying and selling of the same asset. In fantasy football, however, arbitrage has a simpler definition: get this guy instead of that guy. Typically, a fantasy football arbitrage involves two players with similar situations or ranges of outcome that are available at wildly different price points. For example, in 2021 best ball drafts, Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson went off the board around pick 55* while Jalen Hurts was available over 50 slots later, typically going around pick 109. All three QBs were prized for their rushing ability, and all three finished within one PPG. This means that Hurts was the better investment when considering the relative cost of each player.

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Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: Cleveland Browns

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Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series (offseason edition). We still have the Super Bowl to look forward to this Sunday, but as a dynasty manager, you should be thinking about the next fantasy season right now. These are some of the questions we need to be thinking about. Who should we look to be trading for? Who should we be willing to give up? How can I improve my team before September? As always, I want to reiterate that we will break down each NFL team throughout this series. We have broken down a few teams now at this point. Click on their links at the bottom of the page if you missed them. Today is all about the Cleveland Browns. 

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DFF Dynasty SF PPR Mock Draft Review: Positional Breakdown

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For all but two teams, the NFL season is over. There are no more lineups to set or waiver claims to make, which can only mean one thing: the dynasty offseason is upon us. At this time of year, which is really like its own game within the game, mock drafts are incredibly valuable. They help us to understand how the public perception of players (say that five times fast) has shifted over the past several months. Even if you don’t plan on joining any new startups, a mock draft can help you to identify players–or even whole positions–that are over or undervalued by the community. Since I recently completed a startup mock draft with some of my friends here at DFF, I thought I would share some of my observations with you.

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DFS Week 11 Recap

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We’re now through Week 11 in the NFL and things are still never as they seem. A game that was a predicted shootout in Kansas City vs Dallas showed to be a complete bust. Josh Allen once again failed to exploit a weak secondary, and Ryan Tannehill threw four interceptions against the Texans. With that being said, let’s see how my weekly DFS picks played out!

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Moves to Make in a Dynasty Rebuild

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While losing isn’t fun, especially in fantasy football, I would advise taking a different view of your team. Once you change your perspective, rebuilding can then be the real goal rather than winning week in and week out. Actually losing in your tanking efforts is now the mission. I am going to go over a few moves we can make at this point through the season while our teams cement themselves at the bottom of the league standings.

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Redraft Waiver Wire Grind: Week 7

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Man, the free market is getting beyond thin. Just peeking through waivers in my leagues it was hard to find very much intrigue that exists. But that’s the nature of the beast, as we get deeper into the season the overlooked productive players have already been swiped and were now on the search for any sort of opportunity, we can get our free hands-on. 

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Dynasty Risers and Fallers Week 7

Clyde Edwards-Helaire Injury Update

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Kansas City Chiefs running back Clyde “The Glyde onto the IR” Edwards-Helaire, was injured in the third quarter of the blowout loss to the Buffalo Bills last Sunday. First off, props to our Director of Operations @DynastyDiagnos1 for coming up with that wordplay. Second, the injury was better than initially expected. Instead of it being a dreaded complete tear of one of the knee ligaments, it is being labeled an MCL sprain. The typical recovery time of this depends on what grade of sprain it is, but thankfully the Chiefs are leading us to believe that it is just a Grade 1 MCL Sprain which has a recovery time of 1-to-3 weeks. With that news, he was placed on the IR for at least the next three weeks, which means he will miss games against Washington, the Titans, and the Giants at the very least.

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Six Redraft Shares to Watch After Week 5

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Unless we’re analyzing workhorse running backs or alpha wide receivers, a player’s usage can fluctuate from week to week. Some will shine and some will ruin your week. Remember, targets and opportunities are earned. In this first quarter special article, I will provide season target shares, rushing attempt shares, and snap shares of SIX players (or group of players) to help you understand the value of each of them and decide whether to start ‘em, roster ‘em, or trade ‘em.

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DFF Redraft Recap – Weeks 1-4

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We are four weeks into the fantasy football season, and already the NFL looks a lot different than it did heading into Week 1. Devastating injuries, big breakouts, and shocking busts have likely reshaped the landscape of your fantasy league, as well. At this point, we’ll begin to see which teams are contenders and which teams are just pretenders.

In this article, I’ll be giving you a behind-the-scenes look at the DFF Redraft Championship league standings. I’ll provide a brief overview of each team and make a prediction about their rest-of-season performance. Ready for the tour? Let’s start in the basement.

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Kickoff Countdown Day 12: Projecting the Top 12 RBs

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This article will be the first of 12, counting down the days until we can once again sit and watch this sport that we love (and dominate our fantasy leagues in the process). Each article will have a numeric theme, which will also count down as each day is ticked off the calendar. In this piece, I’ll be discussing the top-12 (see the theme?) running backs from our site’s very own redraft rankings and their projected stat lines for the upcoming season. Not only is it a lot of fun to look at some realistic outcomes for these star players–a bit of a preseason appetizer–but looking at these projections can also help you to confidently select one player over another when you are on the clock, even if those two players appear almost indistinguishable at first glance. So, without further ado, I am thrilled to kick off DFF’s first-ever “Kickoff Countdown”! 

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DFF Redraft League: Drafting From the Fourteen Spot

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For this NFL season, a collection of 14 DFF analysts took their talents to a new Redraft league. As the analyst with the 14th pick, I knew it would be an uphill climb to add value. Despite this being a redraft league, I decided to go with my favorite dynasty strategy, the zero-RB. Knowing that this is a 14-team league, we had to adjust compared to the standard 12-team leagues in which elite positional players hold even more of a premium.

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Building a Redraft League Winning Roster

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Building a league-winning roster involves being competent across many different criteria. The first box to check is having a high and consistent weekly floor. A weekly floor is important because inconsistent teams tend to not make the playoffs. It’s a long season, and your team getting cold for a couple of games here and there can be the difference between making a championship run and trying to not finish last. Now I understand that talking about players’ floors is not the sexiest topic in the world, but points win weeks. It’s as simple as that. This series will be written for those in normal PPR redraft leagues, starting 1QB, 2RBs, 2WRs, 1TE, and 1RB/WR/TE along with a Kicker and Defense. Follow these steps, and you will be on top of your league’s podium at the end of the season. 

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2021 Projections: Cleveland Browns

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Baker Mayfield had a bit of a sophomore slump in 2019, but we got to see him bounce back with a good 2020 season where he threw for 3500 yards and 26 touchdowns. I have him projected to expand on this in 2021 and collect almost 4200 passing yards along with 29 touchdowns. Seems pretty reasonable to me. A small increase in throws per game and adding a 17th game certainly make up for that increase in pass yards. This leaves Baker averaging 20.9 fantasy points per game, resulting in a low QB2 ranking. Baker’s current redraft ADP is QB16, this is a tad high for me. I would feel much better about getting him at the QB20-24 range, I am fading him at his ADP and so should you. However, if he happens to fall a few spots I would gladly take him in that previously mentioned 20-24 range.

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Startup Strategies: Drafting to Reload, Not Rebuild

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Rookie drafts are wrapping up and startups are the only thing getting dynasty owners through the off-season. If you’re a true dynasty degenerate, at least set yourself up for success from the draft. We’re not going to just set ourselves up for success now, but build a sustainable roster for the future to create a true “dynasty.” You don’t have to go all-in on big-name vets, nor do you need to only draft players under 26. Mix a little of both strategically.

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Cam Akers: 2021 Dynasty Profile

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During his three seasons at Florida State, Cam Akers rushed for 2,875 yards and 27 TDs, adding 69 receptions for 486 yards and seven TDs through the air. Akers was the focal point of his college offense. As a junior, he accounted for 39.8% (90th percentile) of his team’s yards and TDs while commanding a 10.4% target share (78th percentile). Akers did average a pedestrian 5.0 YPC across his college career, but most attribute this to abysmal offensive line play.

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