Here at Dynasty Football Factory, we just can’t wait for NFL Week 1. We’ve been working hard all offseason to break down all 32 teams and provide the best possible analysis to help you manage your teams and navigate your drafts, but we aren’t finished quite yet!
This article will be the first of 12, counting down the days until we can once again sit and watch this sport that we love (and dominate our fantasy leagues in the process). Each article will have a numeric theme, which will also count down as each day is ticked off the calendar. In this piece, I’ll be discussing the top-12 (see the theme?) running backs from our site’s very own redraft rankings and their projected stat lines for the upcoming season. Not only is it a lot of fun to look at some realistic outcomes for these star players–a bit of a preseason appetizer–but looking at these projections can also help you to confidently select one player over another when you are on the clock, even if those two players appear almost indistinguishable at first glance. So, without further ado, I am thrilled to kick off DFF’s first-ever “Kickoff Countdown”!
12. Antonio Gibson
Last on this list we have Ron Rivera’s new CMC, Antonio Gibson. Gibson is in line for a large workload this season but I do not believe the hype right now. J.D. McKissic was much too involved in the passing game last season to just disappear. Curtis Samuel will also be stealing what would have been RB targets, and then I start to worry about Gibson’s real upside. Even with these hindrances, I am projecting Gibson for 47 catches, 446 yards, and two TDs. Those stats will go very nicely with his rushing projection of 247 carries, 1,171 yards, and 13 touchdowns. Now you might be asking, how could I give Gibson more touchdowns than Chubb? Well, Gibson does not have much competition for rush TDs at all. McKissic is strictly a goal line back and Fitzpatrick is not a young man anymore. This gives Gibson a stranglehold on the TDs and is what led to him having a higher projection of 296.4 fantasy points or 17.4 ppg.
11. Nick Chubb
Chubb is very similar to Taylor in that he could lead the league in rushing but might not even catch 40 passes. His rushing stats project out to be 293 carries for 1,540 yards and 11 touchdowns. While Taylor is limited by Hines, Chubb is limited by Hunt. this nuisance led me to projet Chubb for only 30 catches on 40 targets, while adding 293 yards and one touchdown through the air. I am also worried about the Browns throwing the ball a lot more with a healthy Odell Beckham Jr. and a growing Baker Mayfield. Either way, Chubb is locked in for 285 fantasy points and 16.8 ppg. He’s still a good pick in the mid-second, just make sure not to reach for him.
10. Jonathan Taylor
You might feel that Taylor is pretty low on this list but his situation has many concerns. Taylor has to rely heavily on his rushing but there is no worry there. I have him projected to rush for 1,445 yards and 15 TDs on 281 carries. This would be a lot more useful if Taylor had full control of the passing game. Unfortunately, Hines limits him severely which led me to project Taylor for only 38 catches, 283 yards, and two touchdowns through the air. These stats still combine for a solid 312.3 fantasy points or 18.4 ppg. These fantasy numbers could just be so much higher if Taylor saw more passing work. Until we see that we will keep him with the next pure rusher, Nick Chubb.
9. D’Andre Swift
I know I keep saying it but I just love these early-round running backs, D’Andre Swift is my overall favorite and most owned player in 2021. His target upside is absurd and I’m only giving him a median projection of 67 catches on 89 targets. Although, I could easily see him hitting as many as 100 targets this season. He is a more talented back than Jamaal Williams and will be on the field often. I am also looking to see him add 602 yards and three touchdowns through the air. Then on the rushing side, he should still have a solid impact with 234 carries for 1000 yards and nine touchdowns. I think he definitely projects as the leading goal-line back and should perform as such. These numbers prove a fantasy point total of 300.5 points or 17.7 ppg. I am very excited for Swift and I will be smashing him far above ADP in a lot of drafts.
8. Austin Ekeler
Austin Ekeler is my personal favorite pick of the early second round. He profiles as a Kamara-type back and has true top-five potential. This is due to his receiving projection of 79 receptions, 775 yards, and three touchdowns. He is no slouch on the ground either, projected to add 1,116 yards and six touchdowns on 223 carries. These numbers combine to pump out a total of 320.6 points or 18.9 ppg. Ekeler’s biggest limiting factor is his lack of touchdowns in the past. Regardless, he is a high-volume and high floor back that is used often between the 20s. This makes him a very safe pick that could see spike weeks due to increased touchdowns or negative game scripts which cause a lot of pass plays. If Ekeler gets used more in the red zone and on the goal line we could see a top-three RB performance from him. This makes him a great grab in the early 2nd with such a high combination of floor and upside.
7. Aaron Jones
Aaron Jones is currently my favorite pick of the late first round this year and that is clearly shown by us ranking him as the seventh RB. He has everything you want in an elite running back, rushing ability, receiving ability, high scoring offense, red zone usage, and often in a positive game script. Aaron Jones’ only real point of concern is usage. In the past, the Packers have been known to pull Jones off the field in favor of Jamaal Williams for pass plays. With Williams now gone and no proven receiving back in the RB room we should see an Aaron Jones with more targets than ever in 2021. I have Jones projected for 66 catches on 85 targets, 560 yards, and five touchdowns through the air. While adding 238 attempts, 1,138 yards, and 12 touchdowns on the ground. These numbers have Jones scoring a great 341.3 fantasy points over the season or 20.1 ppg. Aaron Jones has a great high ceiling, high upside combination and is again my favorite pick in the late first.
6. Saquon Barkley
Saquon is the best overall running back prospect and probably the best overall RB in the league. We saw him finish as the RB1 in his rookie season but have yet to see him hit that upside since then due to injuries. This year Saquon is healthy and he has the potential to crush his median projection of 255 carries, 1,173 yards, and nine touchdowns on the ground. This isn’t the only aspect of Barkley’s game though, he is also projected to add 62 receptions, 522 yards, and three touchdowns through the air. These numbers add up to give Saquon 306 points or 18.0 ppg. The reason Saquon is not higher on the list is that he has a depressed floor due to the possibility the Giants’ offense just sucks. However, we do not think this is likely. Saquon needs to be drafted in the first round, do not let him fall out of it.
5. Derrick Henry
Let’s start this with a simple fact, Derrick Henry is an anomaly. There has never been anyone like him and there probably never will be again. He may just be the best pure running back to ever play the game, which is awesome for Henry. However, he lacks the ever-important receiving presence needed to be consistently considered a high-end asset. His projection of 306 carries, 1,532 yards, and 17 rush TDs just will not be enough to make him the RB1 overall when his receiving projection is only 34 catches for 303 yards and two TDs. These numbers combine for a great 334.6 points or 19.7 ppg. Derrick Henry is almost a lock to finish as a top-eight running back but it is very hard for him to crack the top three, and almost impossible to be the number one running back without higher receiving numbers. This is why he is ranked last of the tier one options, he is still a great pick at this point but I would not take him over any of the guys above.
4. Ezekiel Elliott
Another year, and another season of Zeke being projected as a true workhorse. I have Elliott projected for a solid 262 carries where he earns 1,181 yards and scores 13 touchdowns. But that is not all, Zeke is also projected to add 63 receptions on 84 targets, 492 yards, and three touchdowns through the air. These stats would have Zeke producing 328 points which boils down to 19.3 ppg. Zeke plays in one of the best scoring offenses in the NFL which helps, but a lot of their production goes through the air and to their great wide receiver group. If this offense runs through a more healthy Elliott this season his potential would be just through the roof. Draft him with confidence at 1.04.
3. Alvin Kamara
The Saints’ offense is a pretty big mystery right now. Who is their starting quarterback? What wide receivers will make the jump with Michael Thomas sidelined for half the season? Will Adam Trautman break out due to the lack of receiving competition? I do not have the answers to any of these questions, but I do know one thing. Alvin Kamara will be a stud with an offense centered around him, he may even hit 100 receptions this season. I have him projected to get 92 catches on 123 targets, with 756 yards and four touchdowns through the air. When you pair these amazing receiving stats with his 198 carries, 919 rush yards, and eight rush touchdowns you see someone with that CMC usage upside. However, these stats still add to give Kamara an elite 331.3 fantasy points this year, 19.5 ppg. What is going to hold Kamara back this season will be the lack of offensive touchdowns and that is what relegates him to the 1.03 spot. If he had certainty at quarterback and an offense with Michael Thomas he would be much closer to being the RB2.
2. Dalvin Cook
This year we seem to not only have a consensus RB1 but also a consensus RB2. Dalvin Cook is in a great situation to score you a lot of fantasy points. Justin Jefferson really opened up the offense in 2020 and will look to expand on this role in 2021. This will do nothing but help Dalvin reach his projection of 309 carries, 1,422 yards, and 13 TDs. Cook is not just a runner though, he also used a lot in the Vikings’ passing game, which is put on display when you see him projected for 61 receptions on 75 targets, 533 yards, and 3 touchdowns. These rushing and receiving numbers combine to produce a very solid 351 fantasy points in full PPR formats, 20.6 ppg. Cook is not quite on the same level as CMC, but no one is. Dalvin is still a great pick at 1.02 regardless of that.
1. Christian McCaffrey
My 17 game projections have CMC playing out yet another fantastic season. On the ground, I have McCaffery with a stat line of 309 carries, 1,265 yards, and 16 touchdowns. These numbers alone give CMC 220.3 points, or 12.9 points per game (ppg). However, McCaffery will also be heavily involved in the passing game, I have him collecting 90 receptions on 112 targets, going for 926 yards while scoring six touchdowns through the air. His receiving stats combine for another 215.7 fantasy points, thus giving McCaffery a point total of 436 fantasy points or 25.6 per game. This number is just outrageous, even though it is less than what he’s averaged the last two seasons, and shows he deserves to be the consensus 1.01 draft pick. If you want to see my projections for the full Panthers offense, check them out here.
Wow, you read all the way through! Thank you, I really appreciate you using your time to enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions. You can find me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017, DFF Draft Director. Shoot me a DM, they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, and #Analytics content for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much! Make sure to be on the lookout for the next part of the series, The NFL’s Best Starting 11.
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