Unless we’re analyzing workhorse running backs or alpha wide receivers, a player’s usage can fluctuate from week to week. Some will shine and some will ruin your week. Remember, targets and opportunities are earned. In this first quarter special article, I will provide season target shares, rushing attempt shares, and snap shares of SIX players (or group of players) to help you understand the value of each of them and decide whether to start ‘em, roster ‘em, or trade ‘em.
Buffalo Bills RB Room
Snap Share: 52.7% vs. 52.5%
Rushing Attempts Share: 29.5% vs. 35.3%
Routes Run: 35 vs 75
Target Share: 7.9% vs 7.4%
Weighted opportunities: 42.5 vs. 52.6
When looking at these stats, it is important to remember Zack Moss didn’t play week 1. He was a healthy scratch. Since then, he has averaged 14.5 points per game against Singletary’s 8.9. Zack Moss has only one more goal-line attempt but has four more touchdowns than his teammate. There are two scenarios that could start to shape in the next couple of weeks. I believe that either Moss gets a bigger workload (60-65%) or we start seeing similar production from both. It’s worth monitoring because, if the second scenario happens, Moss needs to be sold high as soon as possible. He is averaging 1.25 touchdowns per game. It is almost impossible to maintain that pace.
Cleveland Browns RB Room
Snap Share: 52.1% vs. 44.7%
Rushing Attempts Share: 51.7% vs. 31.6%
Routes Run: 37 vs 53
Target Share: 3.6% vs 15.3%
Weighted opportunities: 60.2 vs. 65.3
I’ve never been a fan of drafting Nick Chubb in the first round. You are fully dependent on his touchdowns because he gets almost zero passing workload. This is what has happened through the start of the season: if he scores a touchdown he is a top 12 RB but if he doesn’t score then he won’t pass the 11-point threshold. Chubb and Hunt lower each other’s ceiling and, obviously, if one of them gets injured, the other one rises to a top 6 value immediately. This is the perfect moment to sell Nick Chubb and target more of a pass-catching back, like Swift, Elliott, or Ekeler. I would even consider trading away Chubb for Hunt plus.
AJ Brown (WR – TEN)
Snap Share: 61.6%
Targets: 25
Target Share: 20.5%
Team Air Yards: 34.2%
People are really believing the idea that they need to sell AJ Brown and you need to take advantage of that. AJ Brown had 17 targets in the two games he has played with Julio Jones. He is not losing targets because of him.
Let’s go see the real numbers. AJB has played four games, but in one of those games, he got injured and played only 12% of the snaps. In week 5 he had under 65% snaps as they were moderately getting him back into action. So, we can basically say he has played three games. He averages over 8 targets per game when last year he was averaging 7.6 targets per game. He also has a 20% target share and 34% air yards and that does not take into account that he didn’t play the full game on weeks 3 and 5. AJ Brown is an easy buy. Go get him now.
Los Angeles Chargers WR Room
Snap Share: 87.2% vs 77.4%
Targets: 34 vs 31
Target share: 22.5% vs 21.6%
Team air yards: 21.9% vs 28.8%
Before I looked at the stats, I thought Keenan Allen was going to be the clear WR1, but it seems as if we have WR1A and WR1B. They are both receiving enough volume to be top 24 WRs this season easily. Justin Herbert is playing out of his mind and the Chargers’ new coaching staff found a way of using both of their receivers in an efficient way. You could still find Mike Williams at a discount so go make some offers. There’s nothing wrong with buying high because he is going to keep giving top 20 production.
Dalton Schultz (TE – DAL)
Snap Share: 71.8%
Routes Run: 72
Targets: 31
Target Share: 19.0%
Team Air Yards: 14.9%
In the last two weeks, Dalton Schultz has surpassed Blake Jarwin as the starting TE in Dallas. He is seeing an incredible target share, a decent number of air yards, and his routes and snap share have increased. I’m a little bit worried about how the targets will be rearranged when Michael Gallup returns. Schultz could take a significant hit on targets and snaps. Meanwhile, I’m not actively looking to trade him because he has no important name trade value and that makes him a hard sell. Anyways, it never hurts to knock on the door of the guy who lost George Kittle. To be honest, I’m comfortable holding for the next couple of weeks.
Dawson Knox (TE – BUF)
Snap Share: 77.4%
Routes Run: 104
Targets: 24
Target Share: 13.7%
Team Air Yards: 12.8%
Are we experiencing Robert Tonyan all over again? Six red-zone targets and five touchdowns. Not all of his touchdowns are in the red zone, but still, these are astonishing numbers. He has a 27.8% TD rate, which is very difficult to maintain season long. The Bills offense has a lot more hype than Dallas and in people’s minds, he has less important players to compete for targets with. I believe he is an easier sell than Schultz. He is seeing fewer targets, fewer air yards, and not that much more snaps than Schultz. Go look for Kittle’s owner, Logan Thomas’ owner, or even Hockenson’s owner as they might be getting desperate and you could cash some profits.
P.S. Go trade for Michael Thomas.
Hey, thanks for reading the article. My DMs are always open to any question, critic, or fantasy advice in any format. You can find me on Twitter @MisterMartinez9.
