Jaylen Waddle

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2023 Rookie Wide Receiver Analytics Spotlight: Nathaniel “Tank” Dell

Rookie / By /

Nathaniel “Tank” Dell is consistent with the new wave of undersized wide receivers recently ushered into the NFL. Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Justin Jefferson, Chris Olave, Rondale Moore, and Elijah Moore are redefining what it means to be a “prototype” wide receiver. Route running and the ability to create separation are being prioritized over physical size.

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JSN & The Slot Receiver

Rookie / By /

The fantasy community has adopted a strange tradition – hyping up a draft class a few years down the road, only to completely discredit them the year they’re to be drafted. Maybe not ‘completely’, but it certainly feels that way. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is one of the most recent victims of our yearly tradition. I want to discuss why that is and see if we can draw any significant conclusions about our views on slot usage and production.

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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts: A Unicorn Without Its Horn

Dynasty / By /

A unicorn without its horn is still a very special horse. Its defining characteristic is lost, but it’s easy to see that the magic is still there. When I think of magic (and more importantly, unicorns), I don’t imagine white manes, rainbows, or holographic elementary school backpacks. I think of Kyle Pitts. His “magic” comes in the form of ridiculous workout metrics, delectable college production, and tantalizing size. His “horn” is his TE designation. Come with me on a different type of fantasy journey as we explore the fate of Kyle Pitts’ dynasty value if he were to lose his TE designation.

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John Metchie III: 2022 Dynasty Profile

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A four-star high school recruit who was born in Taiwan, moved to Ghana, and later emigrated to Canada, John Metchie III played his high school ball in the state of Maryland. He logged some game time as a freshman at Alabama, but behind so many NFL talents at WR he didn’t log enough snaps to impress statistically. In 2020 he filled in for an injured Jaylen Waddle and recorded his breakout season. This past season, he earned second-team All-SEC honors with a team-high 96 receptions before suffering a torn ACL in the conference title game and missing the team’s playoff run.

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The WR1 Rating Dynasty Rookie Wide Receiver Countdown (Post Draft Update): Part 1

Dynasty / By /

For those new to the WR1 rating, this is a proprietary formula I developed to provide a data-driven forecast of future dynasty value for incoming rookie wide receivers. The WR1 model scores rookies on nine predictive metrics and then combines those individual metric scores into a single WR1 rating. The goal is to provide a single easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend all the time dissecting different metrics. 

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Art of Arbitrage: Part 2

Dynasty / By /

Dynasty fantasy football has often been compared to the stock market. While there are some flaws in this analogy, many of the general principles are the same. We want to “buy low” and “sell high.” We want to diversify our portfolio across multiple leagues to mitigate risk. We want a healthy mixture of upside and safety in our investments. And, we want to look for arbitrage opportunities.

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The WR1 Rating: Dynasty Rookie Wide Receiver Rankings Countdown (15-11)

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Over the next few weeks, I will be revealing my annual WR1 prospect model ratings to help prepare DFF readers for their dynasty rookie drafts. This article covers the prospects ranked 15-11 in the model. For those new to the WR1 rating, this is a proprietary formula I developed to provide a data-driven forecast of future dynasty value for incoming rookie wide receivers. The WR1 model scores rookies on nine predictive metrics and then combines those individual metric scores into a total WR1 rating score. The goal is to provide a single easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend all the time dissecting different metrics. You may find an in-depth explanation of the model’s process and a glossary of what the metrics mean here. Before we get into the 2022 prospects, here are the top 20 all-time prospects in the model so you can see how effective it is at forecasting future fantasy value.

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Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: Miami Dolphins

Dynasty / By /

Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series (off-season edition). Off-season madness has begun, Free Agency has started, and the NFL Draft is approaching. Meanwhile, we as Dynasty Managers need to be preparing as well. Who are we going to target in Rookie Drafts? Who are we going to go out and trade for? Who are we willing to give up in return? Will you go all in this season to bring home a championship? Or should you go young and prepare for the future? There’s so much to think about before September. The “off-season edition” of this series is an early look at whose stock is up and whose stock is down as we look at free agency moves and approach draft season. We will break down each NFL team one by one. Today is all about the Miami Dolphins. 

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The Pre-Draft WR1: Prospect Model Ratings

Rookie / By /

For those new to the WR1 rating, this is a proprietary formula I developed to provide a data-driven forecast of future dynasty value for incoming rookie wide receivers. The WR1 model scores rookies on nine predictive metrics and then combines those individual metric scores into a single WR1 rating. The goal is to provide a single easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend all the time dissecting different metrics. If data-driven rankings are not for you, I suggest my colleague @DocFFFN’s wide receiver review from a film perspective. 

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NFL Combine: “Does Size Matter?” Wide Receiver Edition

Rookie / By /

Every off-season the Combine comes and Twitter is ablaze with all of the size narratives. “If he’s short I’m not drafting him.” “If his BMI is too low I’m not drafting him.” “I don’t care what their size is, if they produce I like them.” “Size doesn’t matter!” “Size DOES matter!” What we do not see during this time is much real evidence with actual context. We are just given narratives or one-off examples of outliers. “Cooper Kupp ran a 4.65 and he just had the best WR season ever, 40 times don’t matter.” “DeVonta Smith has a BMI of 22.5 but he won the Heisman, I’m drafting him.” Today, my goal is not to fight for one side or the other. It is to look at the real numbers, with an unbiased eye and determine if these NFL combine metrics matter for fantasy football.

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Draft Capital: Why Should We Care?

Dynasty / By /

Making decisions in your Dynasty Rookie Drafts can be incredibly tough. Especially when you are forced to choose between two players you like or even two players you don’t know much about. There are a few factors that can sometimes help break the tie and make this decision much easier. One of them is a player’s NFL Draft Capital. This metric can be used for any position, but today we will just be talking about wide receivers. How does draft capital help us? Let’s find out below.  

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Pre-Combine 2022 Rookie Positional Rankings – WR

Rookie / By /

Your author has broken down his pre-combine rookie rankings into positional rankings with tier designations to help you better view the dynasty rookie draft landscape. It is important to remember these rankings are created with fantasy football purposes in mind. We will dive eight players deep with the QB and TE positions and ten players deep with the RB and WR positions. Up next, the WR position is detailed for the upcoming 2022 NFL Draft. 

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Dynasty Market Sweep: Coaching Changes

Dynasty / By /

Welcome to the Dynasty Market Sweep, a weekly recurring offseason article focusing on substantial value disparities in the dynasty market consensus. The very nature of the instantaneous fantasy news feed has made the dynasty market more reactionary and volatile than ever before. Once the proverbial petrol is poured and Twitter fingers snap to ignite, player values can burn to the ground overnight.

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Dumpster Diving: Lynn Bowden

Dynasty / By /

“Dumpster Diving” is a new series at Dynasty Football Factory that will help you find late-round hidden gems. These players are far from perfect but they are “free” and who doesn’t love free stuff? If something breaks right these players can have a measurable impact on your team(s) and you’ll be the GM with them stashed on your bench. If not, you cut bait and move on. You want assets on your team that will appreciate in value and that is the goal with this series.  All of these players will be rostered in less than 50% of Sleeper leagues.

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Dynasty Market Sweep

Dynasty / By /

Welcome to the Dynasty Market Sweep, a weekly recurring offseason article focusing on substantial value disparities in the dynasty market consensus. The very nature of the instantaneous fantasy news feed has made the dynasty market more reactionary and volatile than ever before. Once the proverbial petrol is poured, and Twitter fingers snap to ignite, player values can burn to the ground overnight.

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Long Reign The King

All Access / By /

At Dynasty Football Factory, we are always trying to become the best version of ourselves in all facets of the fantasy game. That is why we like to expand our horizons every chance we can and do things outside of our comfort zone. In comes our redraft league, where myself and 13 other staff members participated in. So today I invite you to grab something to drink, get comfortable and I’ll tell you the tale of how I brought out my boomstick and decimated the league, going 13-1 and walking away with the title and an overall record of 15-1. I’ll recap my draft and my thought process behind it along with the moves that made me look like Rainman at the blackjack tables in Vegas and not some idiot having to eat a “one chip challenge” because Houston won more than two games. 

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Dynasty Risers and Fallers Week 15

DFF Fantasy Fact or Cap: Playoff Edition

Dynasty / By /

Welcome back to this week’s edition of Fantasy Fact or Cap for Dynasty Football Factory, the article with hot questions and even hotter answers. I’m your host, Matt Ward, and I have a laundry list of trending players to break down for you today. Our focus in these articles is to quiet tired takes and support facts with advanced analytics. In this week’s special ‘Playoff Edition,’ we focus on specific players who are being touted with league-winning upside. 

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Rookie Stock Report: Week 11

Rookie / By /

Michael Carter has been the RB3 over the last four weeks. Let that sink in. It’s worth reminding folks that the Jets’ running back has been leading the team in target and relying on this receiving volume might not always be sustainable but the talent is being noticed. The GM and coaching staff need to put all their effort into the offensive line this offseason before we see the rushing efficiency we’d want out of a running back but I continue to be encouraged by all the moves I’ve seen thus far. Buy him now while there are still those who doubt.

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Redraft: Week 9 Buy/Sell

All Access / By /

Hello, fellow fantasy managers. I am Chris Miles, The Draft Director, and in this series of articles, I will be helping you determine what players value you should be taking advantage of each week in your Redraft league. If someone’s value is too high I might tell you to sell or if I think their value will decrease soon he could also be a sell. I will give my reasoning for why each player falls in a certain category. I will attempt to have the format consistently be a buy and sell for each position but that may increase or decrease depending on the week. 

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