Introduction

Welcome to the Dynasty Market Sweep, a weekly recurring offseason article focusing on substantial value disparities in the dynasty market consensus. The very nature of the instantaneous fantasy news feed has made the dynasty market more reactionary and volatile than ever before. Once the proverbial petrol is poured, and Twitter fingers snap to ignite, player values can burn to the ground overnight.

Value changes of this nature cause a ripple effect across the market. For every step up the ladder, someone must move down and vice versa.

This will not be your typical “Buy/Sell” advice column. We are going to hone in on distinct seismic shifts in the dynasty community, provide an explanation as to why these changes are happening, and tell how you can exploit said changes to benefit your roster. If a player drops or raises drastically in value, we may suggest a transaction. However, the primary goal is to understand how to adjust to the market to avoid getting swept up in the whirlwind of over-reaction.

Notable Market Changes

RISER

Cam Akers RB (LAR)

Positional Rank: RB6 > RB 16

Overall Rank: 28 > 69

Cam Akers Dynasty Profile – KeepTradeCut

Cam Akers is single-handedly rewriting the narrative on the recovery time for an Achilles tear. Akers 2021-2022 season was presumably over before it began after a devastating injury and ensuing surgery. After a dramatic recovery and a few big plays in the Rams playoff win, Akers’ value has skyrocketed to pre-injury levels.

Much like his value in the previous offseason, Akers’ push up the ranks is based on a presumption of sustained production rather than a history of one.

Injuries aside, Akers is not incredibly efficient with his opportunities. He has shown flashes of excellent potential, but one could contend that his teammate Darrell Henderson had a better statistical year in Akers’ rookie season.

I would not advise acquiring Akers at his absurd value peak when his production has never matched players surrounding him in the same tier. If you’ve held Akers through his rehabilitation time or bought low from panicked managers, now is the time to consider flipping him for the epitome of maximum value. Akers has never finished higher than RB10 in any week of his short career. I’m not saying that his talent will stop him from reaching those heights. I’m saying you don’t have to wait for that production/value (+).

Value Adjacent Players (OVR):

Mark Andrews TE (BAL)

Tee Higgins WR (CIN)

DK Metcalf WR (SEA)

Trevor Lawrence QB (JAX)

Justin Fields QB (CHI)

Value Adjacent RB:

Javonte Williams (DEN)

Christian McCaffrey (CAR)

Dalvin Cook (MIN)

Joe Mixon (CIN)

Antonio Gibson (WAS)

FALLER

CeeDee Lamb WR (DAL)

Positional Rank: WR7 < WR3

Overall Rank: 22 < 12

CeeDee Lamb Dynasty Profile – KeepTradeCut

CeeDee Lamb’s freefall from the top of the dynasty wide receiver mountain felt like a swift and unruly reactionary process brought on by the masses of social media. Though it seemed like a drastic dropoff in value due to a single disappointing playoff performance, the truth runs deeper.

Lamb failed to meet several expected thresholds for a player valued as a top-three WR in dynasty. His decline in value matches his dreadful end to the 2021 season. 

Lamb would finish 2021 with the following metrics (none of which match his previous value of WR3)

PPG: 14.6 (20th)

Target Share: 20.4% (36th)

Target Rate: 24.7% (33rd)

Air Yards Share: 24.4% (50th)

Red Zone Targets: 11 (38th)

Deep Targets: 21 (20th)

Target Separation: 1.67 YDS (48th)

aDOT: 9.4 YDS (71st)

Despite his lackluster opportunity share, Lamb remains one of the most efficient players in the NFL on a per touch basis. He averaged 13.75 scrimmage yards per opportunity, ranked fifth overall in 2021. He averaged 5.95 scrimmage yards over expected per attempt (SYOE/ATT), ranked ahead of Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, and Justin Jefferson. Lamb trailed RB/WR hybrid Deebo Samuel by only 0.46 SYOE/ATT, per BRoto Fantasy Football.

Whether you believe Lamb’s mediocre sophomore season was a product of poor offensive scheming or an inability to earn targets is irrelevant. His value has finally adjusted to a rational point that matches both presumed and current production as well as his potential range of outcomes.

Lamb is neither a buy nor sell for me at this moment. Consider him an asset you should “hold.”

Value Adjacent Players (OVR):

Jaylen Waddle WR (MIA)

Cooper Kupp WR (LAR)

Davante Adams WR (GB)

Mark Andrews TE (BAL)

DK Metcalf WR (SEA)

Value Adjacent WR: 

Jaylen Waddle WR (MIA)

Cooper Kupp WR (LAR)

Davante Adams WR (GB)

DK Metcalf WR (SEA)

Tee Higgins WR (CIN)

Managing a dynasty roster is about building long-lasting success in the chaotic and unpredictable landscape of fantasy football. The idea should be to give yourself as many assets/bargaining chips as possible, so when you move all-in, the deck is stacked in your favor.

“We are card counters at the blackjack table, and we’re going to turn the odds at the casino.”

Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.

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Please follow me on LinkTree to stay updated on all of my content: @PsychWardFF. You can also find my other works as the Lead Writer at BRoto Fantasy Football and a Staff Writer at Dynasty Football Factory.