Welcome to the Dynasty Market Sweep, a weekly recurring offseason article focusing on substantial value disparities in the dynasty market consensus. The very nature of the instantaneous fantasy news feed has made the dynasty market more reactionary and volatile than ever before. Once the proverbial petrol is poured and Twitter fingers snap to ignite, player values can burn to the ground overnight.
Value changes of this nature cause a ripple effect across the market. For every step up the ladder, someone must move down and vice versa.
This will not be your typical “Buy/Sell” advice column. We are going to hone in on distinct seismic shifts in the dynasty community, provide an explanation as to why these changes are happening, and tell how you can exploit said changes to benefit your roster. If a player drops or raises drastically in value, we may suggest a transaction. However, the primary goal is to understand how to adjust to the market to avoid getting swept up in the whirlwind of over-reaction.
Coaching Changes
The yearly hiring/firing cycle for NFL front offices is ramping up now that Super Bowl LVI has concluded. A few clubs have already made the next leap towards rebuilding their coaching personnel. As franchises adjust within the league, the dynasty market follows suit.
Despite the recurring offseason carousel of coaching changes, dynasty managers continue to assume that schemes and philosophies will transfer from one team to the next.
What has happened in the past does not ensure the future.
An excellent example of this false narrative is Antonio Gibson’s 2021 offseason trade stock. Managers bought into a presumption that head coach Ron Rivera would similarly utilize Gibson to Christian McCaffrey based on their years together in Carolina. Gibson established himself as a polished pass-catcher as a wide receiver at the University of Memphis before converting to running back; Rivera showed great affinity for satellite backs on passing-downs. What could go wrong?
On paper, this marriage appeared to be a recipe for elite-level fantasy production (especially in PPR formats). Gibson would finish 2021 with a mere 52 targets, catching 42 passes for 294 yards and three touchdowns. Gibson’s entire receiving production from the 2021 season yielded a disappointing 89.4 PPR PTS.
A reminder that coaching philosophies don’t always travel or translate in a new setting. Heavily investing in the pretense of what occurred previously can set your dynasty teams up for failure.
In this edition of Dynasty Market Sweep, we will dive into some of the fundamental coaching shifts occurring this offseason and how it has affected the dynasty market.
NOTABLE MARKET CHANGES
Minnesota Vikings
New Head Coach: Kevin O’Connell
RISER
Kirk Cousins QB
Positional Rank: QB 20 = QB20
Overall Rank: 85 > 92
Kirk Cousins Dynasty Profile – KeepTradeCut
Kirk Cousins’s positional value has not changed much over the last few weeks, but he has seen a slight increase in overall value. Cousins received a glowing endorsement from new Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell upon arrival. When asked if Cousins would be the quarterback in 2022, O’Connell reiterated that he was excited to work with his new quarterback, per ProFootballTalk (nbcsports.com)
Fresh off of a Super Bowl win as the offensive coordinator for the Rams, O’Connell is looking to turn around the vitriolic culture left behind by a notorious grumpy old man, Mike Zimmer.
Cousins finished 10th overall amongst quarterbacks during the 2021 season, averaging 19.2 PPG. Despite the incessant critiques while playing in Zimmer’s pedestrian offense, Cousins continues to produce at an above-average level. He ranked 7th in adjusted air yards at 7.8 yards per attempt while completing 43.2% of his deep ball attempts.
A new coaching regime is unlikely to lift Cousins above the value of a low-end QB1. However, his current value of QB20 does not reflect his career production or future trajectory. Cousins ranks top ten in all conceivable accuracy metrics yet continues to be disproportionately valued on the dynasty market.
Cousins has ended as a QB1 in all but one season since 2015, wherein he topped out as the QB13 overall. At 33 years old, Cousins should have no issues repeating those numbers for a few more years.
If I can acquire Cousins at his current perceived market value, I am certainly making a push to do so.
Value Adjacent Players (OVR)
Chase Claypool WR (PIT)
2022 Early 2nd Round Draft Pick
Ezekiel Elliott RB (DAL)
Pat Freiermuth TE (PIT)
Hunter Renfrow WR (LV)
Value Adjacent QB
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)
Derek Carr (LV)
Baker Mayfield (CLE)
Ryan Tannehill (TEN)
Daniel Jones (NYG)
New Orleans Saints
New Head Coach: Dennis Allen
FALLER
Alvin Kamara RB
Positional Rank: RB 9 > RB 15
Overall Rank: 53 > 34
Alvin Kamara Dynasty Profile – KeepTradeCut
The Sean Payton era is officially over. The Saints’ long-time head coach has decided to step away from the association after posting a 9-8 record in 2021 with an injury-riddled roster.
Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen has been promoted to the head coaching position. Unfortunately, Allen’s promotion has done little to install excitement in the fantasy football community.
Alvin Kamara’s dynasty value has plummeted with the conclusion of the 2021 season. His overall rank falls outside the top 50 for the first time since his rookie campaign when Mark Ingram was still leading the backfield.
Several seasons of consistent production have done little to stave off Kamara’s value decline.
Russell Clay on Twitter: “Most Touchdowns, Last Six NFL Seasons: Davante Adams – 69 Todd Gurley – 69 Ezekiel Elliott – 68 Derrick Henry – 68 Alvin Kamara – 68 Melvin Gordon – 67 Tyreek Hill – 67 Mike Evans – 61 Aaron Jones – 53″ / Twitter
The entire Saints’ offense has seen a steep decline in market value. Despite a proven track record of success as a Super Bowl-winning defensive coordinator with the Saints, Allen is largely unproven as a head coach.
Kamara is entering his sixth season and first without coach Payton calling the shots. The uncertainty surrounding the Saints franchise and the offense’s future has caused dynasty managers to sour on a once highly coveted asset.
Value Adjacent Players (OVR)
Terry McLaurin WR (WAS)
Travis Kelce TE (KC)
T.J. Hockenson TE (DET)
Mac Jones QB (NE)
Michael Pittman WR (IND)
Value Adjacent RB
Cam Akers (LAR)
Travis Etienne (JAX)
David Montgomery (CHI)
Saquon Barkley (NYG)
Derrick Henry (TEN)
Jacksonville Jaguars
New Head Coach: Doug Pederson
RISER
Travis Etienne RB
Positional Rank: RB 14 > RB 18
Overall Rank: 52 > 59
Travis Etienne Dynasty Profile – KeepTradeCut
Former Eagles head coach and Super Bowl-winner Doug Pederson will take over for the Jaguars after Urban Meyer’s short and disastrous tenure. Pederson is a popular “team guy” and immediately has the vocal support of the locker room.
Trevor Lawrence on Twitter: “Heard a rumor Coach Pederson likes ice cream – Say less. I’ve got a little something for y’all tomorrow! https://t.co/lgpilsWbal” / Twitter
Managers that previously wrote Travis Etienne off after a preseason injury are now doubling back to correct their mistakes. Etienne broke through several elite thresholds as a three-year junior at Clemson. Continuing his career with Trevor Lawrence, Etienne is set to be a focal point of the offense at the beginning of the 2022 season after missing his rookie year.
A former first-round pick, Etienne should be considered the lead running back after James Robinson tore his Achilles in the final weeks of 2021. The door is open for Etienne to become a household name for the Jaguars.
DynastyIM on Twitter: “*IF* there’s going to be a Swift type breakout in 2022 (High RB1 Upside w/ Outside RB1 prices); it’s Travis Etienne ???? ????KTC RB15 ????’ELITE’ Prospect ????Round 1 DC ????Top L Zurlein Grade of Class (6.71) ????2 Collegiate Seasons =>10% RecYDMS curious what his injury outlook is ????” / Twitter
Value Adjacent Players (OVR)
Terry McLaurin WR (WAS)
T.J. Hockenson TE (DET)
Travis Kelce TE (KC)
Mac Jones QB (NE)
2022 Pick 1.05
Value Adjacent RB
Cam Akers (LAR)
Derrick Henry (TEN)
Alvin Kamara (NO)
Josh Jacobs (LV)
David Montgomery (CHI)
FALLER
Positional Rank: WR 58 > WR 48
Overall Rank: 147 >135
Laviska Shenault Dynasty Profile – KeepTradeCut
Hiring a new head coach has given the Jaguars fan base hope for a turnaround in the near future. Unfortunately, it has done nothing to sway the negative connotations surrounding Laviska Shenault as a depreciating dynasty asset. Shenault’s value has followed a uniform decline throughout the 2021 season, relative to his poor play and lack of involvement in the offense.
His value continues to freefall into the offseason as the influx of rookies and free agency arrives.
Shenault’s perceived price has come full circle from intriguing buy to overpriced asset, to intriguing investment yet again.
The risk is not one I suggest making at this juncture. Shenault will need to establish himself as a proven option before I am comfortable reinvesting.
(2) Paul DFF on Twitter: “If you like Cordarrelle Patterson this year, just wait for Laviska Shenault’s RB breakout in 2029. ????” / Twitter
Value Adjacent Players (OVR)
2022 Pick 2.10
Irv Smith TE (MIN)
Melvin Gordon RB (DEN)
Hunter Henry TE (NE)
Khalil Herbert RB (CHI)
Value Adjacent WR
Corey Davis (NYJ)
Adam Thielen (MIN)
Josh Palmer (LAC)
Nico Collins (HOU)
Kenny Golladay (NYG)
Miami Dolphins
New Head Coach: Mike McDaniel
RISER
Positional Rank: WR 4 > WR 7
Overall Rank: 17 > 20
Jaylen Waddle Dynasty Profile – KeepTradeCut
PFF Fantasy Football on Twitter: “You heard coach ????️ Year two Jaylen Waddle will be special. https://t.co/MCQ8DbWNqw” / Twitter
On Feb 14th, Mike McDaniel uttered the statement, “I’d start Jaylen Waddle in fantasy.” Immediately after that quote surfaced, the soon-to-be second-year wideout’s stock rose from WR 7 to WR 4 overall on several market consensus sources.
Waddle’s dynasty value had reached the WR1 tier well before the Dolphins announced the hiring of their new head coach. Breaking the single-season record for receptions by a rookie will do that.
One recurring knock on Waddle’s overall profile is his low average target depth (aDOT). Waddle’s aDOT in 2021 ranked 103rd overall at just 6.3 yards per target. Fortunately for Waddle and his doubters, coach McDaniel runs an incredibly effective and complex short passing game, as displayed by Deebo Samuel and Jimmy Garroppolo on the 49ers offense.
Waddle doesn’t possess the after-the-catch abilities of Samuel; however, his role as a target hog on the Dolphins seems safe with McDaniels arrival and vote of confidence.
At his current acquisition cost, buying into Waddle with hopes of the receiver outplaying his ranking is a bad bet. Although nothing is guaranteed, McDaniel has traditionally run a low-volume passing attack favoring a heavy run-first approach. Removing some of Waddle’s opportunities in the passing game could severely hinder his overall production.
Value Adjacent Players (OVR)
Christian McCaffrey RB (CAR)
Mark Andrews TE (BAL)
Dak Prescott QB (DAL)
Justin Fields QB (CHI)
Trevor Lawrence QB (JAX)
Value Adjacent WR
D.K. Metcalf (SEA)
Tyreek Hill (KC)
Cooper Kupp (LAR)
A.J. Brown (TEN)
CeeDee Lamb (DAL)
New York Giants
New Head Coach: Brian Daboll
RISERS
Daniel Jones QB
Positional Rank: QB 22 > QB 30
Overall Rank: 108 > 143
Daniel Jones Dynasty Profile – KeepTradeCut
Positional Rank: WR 56 > WR 66
Overall Rank: 154 > 176
Kenny Golladay Dynasty Profile – KeepTradeCut
NFL on Twitter: “Giants hire Bills OC Brian Daboll as new head coach. https://t.co/Y1w9swRx5M” / Twitter
Reactionary value adjustments of this nature throw caution to the wind.
Brian Daboll earned the head coaching position with the Giants after a long coaching career culminating with a four-year stint as the offensive coordinator for the Bills. Daboll can be credited with turning the Bills from a slow-paced throwback offense into a modern pass-orientated juggernaut.
Taking on a disheveled Giants squad will be no easy task, and Daboll has already begun to restructure the coaching staff from the ground up. Despite the unknown future of the Giants offense, Daniel Jones and Kenny Golladay have seen noticeable boosts to their dynasty value.
Jones will be learning his third offensive system in four years. The Giants management has openly admitted to dropping the ball on Jones’ development, blaming themselves for not providing the 24-year-old quarterback with stability throughout his young career. Although Jones has shown solid athleticism at the position, his inability to read and adjust to defenses cannot be fixed overnight by a coaching change.
Golladay endured a dreaded 2021 season during his first year as a member of the Giants. He played in 14 games but recorded a mere 37 receptions on 72 targets. Golladay failed to record a single touchdown for the Giants and averaged just 6.4 PPR PPG (WR 83). Seeing Golladay currently valued nearly 30 spots ahead of his 2021 ranking is sub-optimal considering his age (28) and inconsistent track record.
OTHER NOTABLE HIRES
Las Vegas Raiders
New Head Coach: Josh McDaniels
Chicago Bears
New Head Coach: Matt Eberflus
Houston Texans
New Head Coach: Lovie Smith
SIGNOFF
Managing a Dynasty roster is about building long-lasting success in the chaotic and unpredictable landscape of fantasy football. The idea should be to give yourself as many assets/bargaining chips as possible, so when you move all-in, the deck is stacked in your favor.
“We are card counters at the blackjack table, and we’re going to turn the odds at the casino.”
Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
Join the #DFFArmy to keep in step with exclusive fantasy football content by clicking HERE. #AlwaysBeBuilding
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For previous articles in this series, click here: Dynasty Market Sweep, Dynasty Market Sweep: Episode 2, Dynasty Market Sweep: Addressing the Age Cliff.
