The fantasy community has adopted a strange tradition – hyping up a draft class a few years down the road, only to completely discredit them the year they’re to be drafted. Maybe not ‘completely’, but it certainly feels that way. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is one of the most recent victims of our yearly tradition. I want to discuss why that is and see if we can draw any significant conclusions about our views on slot usage and production.
THE CRITICISM
One of the biggest knocks on Jaxon Smith-Njigba is also probably the most predictable…he’s a slot receiver. He’s also a bit small at 6’0” and 198 lbs., but as much as we want to dig into these dudes’ medical records and inspect their BMI with a microscope we are proven wrong time and time again. Going as far back as Wes Welker or looking more recently at DeVonta Smith and Amon-Ra St. Brown, who overcame what everyone said they couldn’t. Size is largely irrelevant for wide receivers, especially if they’re elite talents. Let’s face it though, did everyone just find out most of Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s production is out of the slot?
The answer to my good buddy Zach Reed’s question from last December was, no, they don’t know. And yes, apparently they just found out.
That said, it is true that Jaxon Smith-Njigba works mainly out of the slot, at an absurd 88.6% clip in 2021 per PFF (no 2022 data), but is that such a bad thing? Why are we so concerned about production from the slot and why do we look at it as a negative? Good receivers are infinitely more productive out of the slot and, in many cases, it’s due to the fact they are facing a lesser talent or a mismatched defender. Slot defenders are typically nickelbacks (third defensive back) or a linebacker, and are generally without the requisite skill set to consistently keep up with their opponent. Are we giving less credit because they were lined up against an inferior defender? I’m certainly not. This is what good NFL play-callers scheme up and what good NFL players do.
THE NUMBERS
If we’re so concerned about slot production, let’s take a look at the 2022 fantasy and slot rate data to discover what is actually happening.
First, let’s review the top 10 scorers in fantasy points per game (FPPG) who had at least 50 snaps from the slot. The list is Justin Jefferson, Cooper Kupp, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, Ja’Marr Chase, A.J. Brown, CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and DeAndre Hopkins.
Four of the top 10 were either above 40% slot rate or above 40% FPPG from the slot. Those four are Cooper Kupp, Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
If we expand to the top 24 wide receivers from 2022 using that same 40% threshold we find Jaylen Waddle, Chris Godwin, DeVonta Smith, Amari Cooper, Keenan Allen, and Christian Kirk. We are looking at some of the premier receiver talents in the league, most with a good portion of their snaps and fantasy production coming from the slot. We can even look at players below the 40% threshold and find Justin Jefferson producing 6.29 FPPG (top 12 in this category) and 29.6% of his overall fantasy points from the slot. So, again, why are we so bothered by another wide receiver entering the league who has consistently dominated from the slot?
THE CONCLUSION
The simple conclusion is we need to change the way we think about slot usage and we shouldn’t at all be concerned with Jaxon Smith-Njigba because of his height or the fact he produced almost entirely from the slot receiver position in college. This is a good thing. If you are looking for a comparison, he is very similar to Amon-Ra St. Brown in terms of stature (and play style) and Chris Godwin in terms of potential usage.
We should be targeting players who have consistently been effective in this role in college or project to in the NFL, not avoiding them. Some of the best wide receivers produce up to half, if not more than half, of their fantasy points when lined up in the slot. Good wide receivers are schemed up to face easier matchups and the data shows them taking advantage of it, we as fantasy managers should be taking advantage too.
While this data is only looking at 2022, I collected this data last year and the results were largely the same in terms of final analysis. You can find the data in the google sheets link here if you are interested in seeing it for yourself. The highlighted columns are indicating anything above the threshold shown in the column header.
*Credit PlayerProfiler.com as the data source*
Thank you for reading. If you have any thoughts or questions and would like to discuss them, you can reach out to me on Twitter @WillieBeamanDFF.
