Welcome back to this week’s edition of Fantasy Fact or Cap for Dynasty Football Factory, the article with hot questions and even hotter answers. I’m your host, Matt Ward, and I have a laundry list of trending players to break down for you today.
Our focus in these articles is to quiet tired takes and support facts with advanced analytics. In this week’s special ‘Playoff Edition,’ we focus on specific players who are being touted with league-winning upside.
I’ll be avoiding some of the more prominent names in attempts to shed some light on a few of the dark horses, so do not mistake absentees from this list as potential late-season busts.
Without further ado, let’s look at which players are “frauds” or “for real” when it comes to taking home the league title.
Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI)
In-Season Splits
211 CMP/351 ATT/2435 YDS/13 TD/8 INT – 122 RSH/695 YDS/8 TD
Current Rank: QB4
LEAGUE WINNING STATUS: FOR REAL
The constant debate over whether or not Jalen Hurts can find sustained success at the NFL level is a moot point. Hurts has one of the most effortless remaining strengths of schedule for any quarterback this season. He has done nothing but produce consistent QB1 numbers, recording only two games below that bar this season.
Hurts may not be a consummate pocket passer, but he possesses the keys to Konami-Code upside with incredible rushing volume and efficiency. Hurts is not only the most efficient rusher in the NFL for his position but leads all players this season in rushing yards over expected (RYOE). Hurts boasts a ridiculous 2.14 RYOE/ATT, separating him from stud running back Jonathan Taylor by 0.21 RYOE/ATT and Lamar Jackson by 0.84 RYOE/ATT.
His phenomenal athleticism, coupled with an inviting strength of schedule, leads me to believe Jalen Hurts will be on many championship rosters come season’s end.
Carson Wentz (QB – IND)
In-Season Splits
266 CMP/420 ATT/2948 YDS/22 TD/5 INT – 41 RSH/167 YDS/1 TD
Current Rank: QB12
LEAGUE WINNING STATUS: FRAUD
Don’t get me wrong, Carson Wentz has done a fine job in his first year as the starting quarterback for the Colts. However, “fine” and “decent” are not enough to win you a fantasy football championship. Wentz is a teetering QB1 with a low ceiling. He has finished as a top-ten option at the position only three times this season.
Wentz is also facing the most difficult remaining strength of schedule for any quarterback this season, according to Defensive Points Over Average at BRoto Fantasy Football. Wentz’s remaining defensive matchups allow 14% below the average PPG to opposing quarterbacks.
Jonathan Taylor should continue to handle an astronomic level of touches as the Colts aim to make the playoffs. I expect a continued focus on a run-first approach, which in turn, would greatly cap the production of Wentz moving forward.
Leonard Fournette (RB – TB)
In-Season Splits
152 RSH/665 YDS/7 TD – 58 REC/70 TGT/402 YDS/2 TD
Current Rank: RB6 (STD) RB4 (0.5 PPR) RB4 (PPR)
LEAGUE WINNING STATUS: FOR REAL
Leonard Fournette has earned a myriad of nicknames over his career. From “Playoff Lenny” to “Lombardi Lenny” and the newly minted “Leonard FourTuddies.” Regardless of the alias you choose, all of his monikers translate to one thing: League Winner.
Fournette has undoubtedly earned his league-winning label with his late preseason ADP and continued elite-level numbers. The upside lies within the method in which he produces those numbers. Fournette leads all running backs with 58 receptions through 13 weeks. He ranks third amongst running backs with 70 targets this season and 271 routes run.
Fournette has surpassed all other Buccaneers’ running backs in the pecking order. Still, his continued usage in the passing game is a welcomed, albeit unexpected, advantage for managers entering the playoffs.
It is also worth mentioning that Fournette and the Buccaneers face off against the Jets during the championship week in fantasy football. The Jets are giving up a league-worst 34.6 PPG to running backs this season, a whopping 55.0% DPOA. Finishing as the overall RB1 during the most crucial week of the fantasy season is well within the range of outcomes for Fournette.
Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG)
In-Season Splits
84 RSH/315 YDS/2 TD – 30 REC/40 TGT/193 YDS/1 TD
Current Rank: RB45 (STD) RB41 (0.5 PPR) RB39(PPR)
LEAGUE WINNING STATUS: FRAUD
Sometimes the best ability is availability. The pure talent of Saquon Barkley is undeniable. Barkley is still in a tier of his own when fully healthy. Unfortunately, 2021 marked yet another season where Barkley’s talents were sorely missed due to a litany of nagging injuries.
Barkley is now on the injury report for the umpteenth time this season. Even if he was fully healthy, the upcoming schedule for the Giants should cause significant concerns.
The Giants remaining opponents combine to allow -7.1% DPOA to running backs. With a 4-8 record in the NFC East, their season is all but lost already. I expect Barkley to see limited action when he does suit up. Honestly, I would not be surprised to see Barkley shut down entirely as the Giants look towards rebuilding next season.
Joe Mixon (RB – CIN)
In-Season Splits
227 RSH/978 YDS/12 TD – 26 REC/31 TGT/192 YDS/2 TD
Current Rank: RB3 (STD) RB3 (0.5 PPR) RB 3 (PPR)
LEAGUE WINNING STATUS: FOR REAL
Joe Mixon’s universal ranking as the RB3 in all formats helps us shed a false fable about the Bengals’ running back. One of the recurring narratives of this season surrounded Mixon and the ability to live up to his pre-season ADP. Concerns of sustained health and volume-dependent game scripts flood the fantasy community week-in and week-out, yet Mixon continues to silence all critiques.
Mixon has scored a touchdown in nine consecutive games, dating back to Week 4. He has four multi-touchdown games this season and continues to be the focal point of the Bengals’ offense, leading all of his teammates with 184.9 Weighted Opportunities, per PlayerProfiler.
Any continued doubt is unmitigated and unfounded. Mixon is sure to be one of the must-roster players on championship teams.
Chuba Hubbard (RB – CAR)
In-Season Splits
111 ATT/430 YDS/4 TD – 32 REC/46 TGT/308 YDS/0 TD
Current Rank: RB 38 (STD) RB 42 (0.5 PPR) RB 44 (PPR)
LEAGUE WINNING STATUS: FRAUD
I spoke on the invaluable importance of rostering elite handcuffs during the fantasy playoffs in One Week Ahead, and I stand by that philosophy. However, I do not believe Chuba Hubbard to be elite. There is no one on the Panthers’ roster that can replace or replicate the production lost from the loss of Christian McCaffrey. I understand the “need” to play Hubbard, but heed this; managers should not be relying on the rookie to lock up a league title.
Our very own Jagger May suggested managers cash in on Hubbard’s early-season value rise in his Rookie Stock Report. I want to reiterate some of Jagger’s solid points and remind managers that Hubbard is an inexperienced rookie on a steep learning curve, playing behind a putrid offensive line with a rush-first quarterback at the helm, ready to vulture any and all touchdowns.
In the coming weeks, Hubbard and the Panthers will face a brutal string of defensive matchups, specifically to the running back position. Hubbard’s remaining strength of schedule yields a -1.5% DPOA rating as the Panthers face the Bills, the Buccaneers, and the Saints during the fantasy playoffs.
Even with volume on his side, Hubbard has mainly been inefficient with his touches. He relies on touchdowns to bolster his production, making him an unpredictable and volatile start in any given week. Hubbard currently ranks 55th in scrimmage yards over expected (SYOE). Hubbard is averaging -0.15 SYOE/ATT, according to BRoto Fantasy Football analytics.
Unfortunately for managers relying on CMC to push them to the promised land, settling for Hubbard as a primary option may be the first step in conceding defeat.
Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA)
In-Season Splits
86 REC/114 TGT/849 YDS/4 TD – 2 RSH/3 YDS/1 TD
Current Rank: WR18 (STD) WR14 (0.5 PPR) WR10 (PPR)
LEAGUE WINNING STATUS: FOR REAL
As the weather outside drops to below freezing temperatures, Jaylen Waddle sets fire to the NFL.
The Connection between Waddle and second-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa cannot be understated. Tua’s outstanding accuracy has rightfully received a ton of praise. Still, who Tua targets on his pass attempts are part and partial to that success.
Waddle is second in the NFL with 460 routes run, per PlayerProfiler. Waddle leads the Dolphins in target share (23.8%) and target rate (25.2%). He ranks in the top 12 wide receivers this season with a 74.1% catch rating and a third overall ‘true’ catch rate.
The rookie from Alabama has firmly established himself as the number one receiving option on the Dolphins. You can expect Waddle to continue his phenomenal ascent as he makes his case for offensive rookie of the year.
Rashod Bateman (WR – BAL)
In-Season Splits
25 REC/39 TGT/301 YDS
Current Rank: WR100 (STD) WR95 (0.5 PPR) WR93 (PPR)
LEAGUE WINNING STATUS: FRAUD
I think it’s fair to admit that Rashod Bateman’s breakout season may have to wait until his second year. Bateman was not afforded the same time frame of development as his fellow rookie peers as the Ravens’ first-round wideout opened up the season on injured reserve.
A few strong showings gave managers a glimpse of potential. However, now with seven games under his belt as a pro, it has become clear that Bateman’s league-winning upside was an aspiration of hope. A hope that is quickly fleeting as the season ends.
Bateman is riding the low of a zero-point fantasy performance against a favorable Steelers defense in Week 13. He has less than 50% of the offensive snaps in two consecutive games with only five targets in that span.
A continued decline in usage and efficiency from quarterback Lamar Jackson will do little to help Bateman break his developmental slump. Additionally, with Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews both putting up career-best numbers, Bateman’s ceiling will be a tertiary option.
Rob Gronkowski (TE – TB)
In-Season Splits
33 REC/47 TGT/436 YDS/6 TD
Current Rank: TE9 (STD) TE13 (0.5 PPR) TE 14 (PPR)
LEAGUE WINNING STATUS: FOR REAL
I’ll make this short and sweet. Rob Gronkowski recorded the above receiving line in just five complete games. Gronk has been targeted eight or more times in every game since his return from injured reserve and has three multi-TD performances this season.
Gronk has finished in the top-ten tight ends every week except for the two weeks he was forced to exit the game early. He ranks first overall amongst tight ends with 16.1 PPG. As long as he is healthy, Gronk possesses league-winning upside at the position.
Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL)
In-Season Splits
49 REC/82 TGTS/709 YDS
Current Rank: TE12 (STD) TE10 (0.5 PPR) TE9 (PPR)
LEAGUE WINNING STATUS: FRAUD
I feel like I’ve been waiting my whole life for another Kyle Pitts touchdown catch, so I know the feeling.
Drafting Kyle Pitts as a top-five tight end in redraft leagues was always a risky gamble. BRoto Fantasy Football co-founder Tim Petropoulos (@BRotoFFTim) wrote a remarkably in-depth article regarding the volatility of Pitts’ draft position leading up to pre-season drafts. Tim’s piece was simple yet beautifully titled, “You are Drafting Kyle Pitts Too High.” Tim mentioned the impossible, never-before-reached heights Pitts would need to achieve in order to return investment on his ludicrous ADP.
I doubled down on those sentiments in the second edition of Fantasy Fact or Cap. Once again, I am here to remind you that rookie tight ends will not win you your fantasy leagues.
Pitts has caught one lonely touchdown pass this season. His two best games came against the Jets and the Dolphins, wherein Pitts was virtually the only healthy pass-catcher active on the Falcons offense. Since his mini two-week breakout in Week 5 and 7, Pitts is averaging 5.5 PPG. He is ranked TE17 from Week 8 to 13.
Pitts obtaining unfounded progression in the touchdown department is highly unlikely at this juncture in the season. Matt Ryan has thrown only one touchdown, compared to five interceptions over the last five games. Ryan appears to be a shell of his former self, further hindering any remaining hope of league-winning upside from Pitts.
Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
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You can read the previous articles in this series here: Fantasy Fact or Cap Vol. 1, Fantasy Fact or Cap Vol. 2, Fantasy Fact or Cap Vol. 3.
