dynasty

Dynasty Lessons Learned: 2021

Dynasty / By /

There exists a great divide between redraft and dynasty fantasy football. Many factors contribute to the considerable gap between the two, but one aspect unique to dynasty is the constant evolution. The ability to adjust as a dynasty manager is key, whether it is fixing a mistake made in the start-up draft or understanding the applied strategy is outdated or unreliable in today’s dynasty landscape, success hinges on one’s aptitude for self-reflection and change.

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Selling High on Hype

Dynasty / By /

During this “dead period”, of impact Fantasy Football content, it’s always good to take inventory of your roster and identify “who’s hot” and “who’s not”, from a Dynasty values perspective. The idea lends itself to helping you make strategic moves and improving your starting line-up production while insulating with production potential. The following recommendations are meant to help you find ways to expand your production potential via the off-loading of “hyped” assets, whether proven or unproven. These examples are not to say that these players possess poor value; rather it’s due to the perceived value that might allow you to move them in to strengthen your overall roster.

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Knee Deep in Muddy Backfields: The Jaguars

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James Robinson managers were shocked (maybe) in the draft when the Jaguars selected Travis Etienne in the first round with the 25th overall pick. This wasn’t out of the question going in, as the Jags had a lot of draft capital to throw around, but it was a bit surprising to me. James Robinson was more than serviceable in 2020, he was good. They also added veteran depth to the backfield during free agency in the form of Carlos Hyde.

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Rookie Quarterback Record Breakers

Rookie / By /

With the 2021 NFL Draft in the books and teams beginning their offseason mini camps, the NFL offseason is approaching a lull. We will overreact to one-on-one videos of a wide receiver breaking a defensive back’s ankles on a route when the receiver knows the play and the defensive back does not. Or it might be in the form of a running back making a decent-looking body catch against air. We may even see more statistics about Zach Wilson being 0-5 against teams with 10 or more wins in that respective season and posting just one passing touchdown in those five games.

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The Case for Chase: 2021’s Sure Thing

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Get familiar with 2021’s closest sure thing. Ja’Marr Chase is the best wide receiver prospect we’ve seen since Julio Jones. No really, Julio Jones. Chase checks all the boxes we look for in wide receiver prospects and then some. Let’s first look at his draft capital. Draft capital is a great indication of what an NFL team thinks of a prospect and just how much they like (or don’t like) him. The Bengals made Chase the fifth overall selection on April 29th. What other receivers have been drafted with such elite draft capital? (All Data is from 2010-2021)

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Knee Deep in Muddy Backfields: The Falcons

Dynasty / By /

The only Falcon with meaningful rushing numbers that returns to the team is Matt Ryan. Todd Gurley and Ito Smith are both free agents, and Brian Hill is a Titan. The Falcons return Tony Brooks-James and Qadree Ollison, but neither one has contributed much to the franchise at this point in their careers. The biggest name in the Falcons backfield is Mike Davis, who they signed to a two-year $5,500,000 contract this past offseason. The team also signed Cordarrelle Patterson, a converted wide receiver who saw 64 carries with the Bears last season. Not to be lost in the fray, are UDFAs Javian Hawkins and Caleb Huntley.

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dfs week 14

Knee Deep in Muddy Backfields: The Dolphins

Dynasty / By /

Miami is similar to the 49ers in that they give one guy a ton of work, it’s just sometimes difficult to be sure who that guy is going to be. In every game he played, Gaskin saw more than 60% of the snaps. He even saw 70% or more in five games, which was half of his games played. When Gaskin was out, Ahmed stepped in and received 46%, 76%, 66%, and 60%. They’re going to give the ball to primarily one guy, and right now that one guy looks like Myles Gaskin.

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Knee Deep in Muddy Backfields: The Broncos

Dynasty / By /

The Broncos signed Melvin Gordon to a two-year $16 million contract last offseason. This offseason they originally placed a restricted free agent tender on Phillip Lindsay, before allowing him to walk in free agency. To replace Lindsay, they brought in Mike Boone on a two-year deal worth $3,850,000 and drafted Javonte Williams with the 35th pick in the draft. Oh yeah, Royce Freeman is still around somewhere too.

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Navigating Your Rookie Draft- 2021 Running Backs

Rookie RB Prospect Model: Regression Analysis

Rookie / By /

Today’s fantasy landscape grows more and more complex. When evaluating rookie prospects we have so many different stats and metrics to look at. The hard part is figuring out which ones are important and which do not matter. That is where regression analysis can come in and play a large role. I will be using regression analysis to help build a predictive grading model that can be used to easily sift through many players to quickly identify guys to avoid and target. Our end goal when selecting rookies is who will be the best fantasy assets when they hit the NFL, and the best assets are the ones who score us the most fantasy points. To create my rookie model I used regression analysis and sorted through multiple different metrics to determine which correlated to NFL fantasy points per game (FP/G) the most and which correlated the least. 

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DFF Draft Coverage: Tarik Black to the Colts

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Tarik Black put together a rather disappointing college career. He came into the NCAA with a lot of hype given the fact that he was a 4-star recruit who committed to Michigan University over teams like Alabama, Notre Dame, Auburn, and others. After playing for Michigan for three seasons, Black decided to transfer to Texas University. He had a much larger role for the Longhorns, but he only played in six games during his lone season with the team. Although his college numbers don’t look enticing, he has the skillset to become a complete receiver in the NFL.

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Knee Deep in Muddy Backfields: The Bills

Knee Deep in Muddy Backfields: The Bills

Dynasty / By /

After the NFL draft, there are quite a few backfields without a clear picture of who the workload is going to fall on. While some backfields may continue as committees, more than likely, a few of them will have one guy receive a large volume of the work. That’s what I’m aiming to dive into in this series: who will emerge from the muddy backfields and cement their place as a fantasy value this season?

Luckily, JJ Zachariason has already put in the research to show us what to look for. Breakout running backs typically aren’t handcuffs. They come from ambiguous backfields and are oftentimes drafted as the 2nd back from their team. Pass catchers have an easier route to breakout, as there is typically a three rush to one reception workload ratio. Most importantly, age doesn’t matter. Players in their 5th year are just as likely as rookies to break out in these situations.

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49ers backfield

Knee Deep in Muddy Backfields: The 49ers

Dynasty / By /

After the NFL Draft, there are quite a few backfields without a clear picture of who the workload is going to fall on. While it’s possible some backfields continue as committees, more than likely, a few of them will have one guy receive a large volume of the work. That’s what I’m aiming to dive into in this series: who will emerge from the muddy backfields and cement their place as a fantasy value this season?

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DFF Draft Coverage: Jaret Patterson to the WFT

Rookie / By /

Jaret Patterson is a shifty runner with quick feet. He won’t blow you away with his 4.58 speed, but he was good at making people miss in college when working with minimal space. There were a lot of red flags on film with Patterson. Several times where bigger defenders were able to take him down without help. He’s hesitant at times when making the decision of which hole to hit. Patterson has excellent ball security and drive. He’s a competitor. He’s a fun player to watch, but I’m not sure his skills are going to translate in the NFL.

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DFF Draft Coverage: Kylin Hill to the Packers

Rookie / By /

Kylin Hill does a lot of things very well. He might now be elite in any one trait, but he doesn’t show many weaknesses on tape. His running style is aggressive and he finishes off runs with violence. He has a second gear that he can hit when he sees space. There isn’t a lot of tape on Hill in 2020, but from what I did see in the LSU game, he has a lot of potential as a runner.

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DFF Draft Coverage: Elijah Mitchell to the 49ers

Rookie / By /

At his Pro Day, Elijah Mitchell measured 5’10” and 201 lbs, giving him a BMI of 28.8. His best 40-yard dash time was 4.40-seconds which equates to a 107.3-Speed Score, 86th percentile. He also achieved a 127.8 burst score, 88th percentile, and an agility score of 11.14, 79th percentile. Mitchell is above average in every athletic testing category and these are very important when talking about RBs. Overall I am impressed with his athletic profile, he has good size and profiles to be an RB that can secure a great touch share in the NFL.

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DFF Draft Coverage: Simi Fehoko to the Cowboys

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

Simi Fehoko had 62 receptions for 1,146 and nine touchdowns in his three-year college career at Stanford. Fehoko is another wide receiver on the older side entering the draft at 23 years old. Although Fehoko is listed as playing three years he was a reserve as a freshman and played just four games catching a single pass for six total yards. He broke out as a sophomore finishing 2019 with 24 catches for 566 yards and six touchdowns. Fehokofollowed up his breakout season with an underwhelming 2020 where he caught 37 passes for just 574 yards and three touchdowns. Most of his production came in two games, however, he did account for 35.7% of his team’s offensive production. 

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DFF Draft Coverage: Ian Book to the Saints

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

Ian Book finished his four-year career with the second-most career passing yards in Notre Dame’s history (8,948). He also finished second in career passing touchdowns (72) and second in career QBR (147.0) amongst those who attempted 500 or more passes. Book also put up great rushing statistics in college as well. In 45 career games, he produced 1,517 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns. The dual-threat quarterback can beat you both with his arm or with his legs, and in today’s game, being able to pass or run on any given down creates a major disadvantage for defenses. 

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DFF Draft Coverage: Rhamondre Stevenson to the Patriots

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

Bill Belichick must’ve really missed having someone in that LeGarrette Blount role because Rhamondre Stevenson is a bowling ball running back who can fill that need immediately. From a fantasy perspective, this is a terrible landing spot because trying to figure out who the Patriots are going to utilize each week is still a nightmare. However, it seems like Belichick is trying to build up his defense and establish players in key roles on his offense that have worked for him in the past. The Patriots’ backfield is now a mess filled with Damien Harris, Sony Michel, James White, Branden Bolden, JJ Taylor, and Stevenson. Stevenson will project to Harris has two years left, while Michel is entering his last year unless New England decides to pick up his option next year. Stevenson is an interesting late third or early fourth-round pick due to the fact that the Blount role has been relevant in the past. But it’s so crowded right now, that you’re hoping he can survive next year’s draft too before really adding much to your fantasy teams and that’s a bet I’m not hoping to take.

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